Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The broad-based rise in retail sales in August largely reflects a rebound from July rather than a genuine strengthening in consumer demand, though there were still signs in the data that households... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (Sep./Oct. 2026) October’s sharp fall in consumer confidence and the dip in retail sales volumes in September show that times are getting tougher for households just as the all-important festive period for retailers... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2026) The improvement in official GDP growth last quarter is at odds with the slowdown shown by our China Activity Proxy (CAP). But the September data do suggest that the economy regained momentum at the... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Sep. 2026) The muted rise in control group retail sales suggests that real consumption was little changed in September. While that still leaves real GDP growth on track to rise to a little over 3% annualised in... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (October 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. There are no signs that higher interest rates are resulting in tighter financial conditions or... 13th October 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly When should Burnham call a general election? To the extent that the economy matters in determining the timing of general elections and their result, our economic forecasts and the government's tax and spending plans imply that 2028 looks like a... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s recovery will remain gradual National income data released this week showed that New Zealand households are still saving at a high rate. However, with real income growth slowing and housing wealth continuing to fall, they are... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (August 2026) The small rise in euro-zone retail sales in August suggests that consumption growth slowed in the third quarter compared to Q2. 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher yields add to the headwinds for consumers Higher yields are only a modest headwind for consumers but, at a time when real income growth is already slowing, they are another reason to expect weaker consumer spending growth in the coming... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug. 2026) The data dump today shows that core price pressures are slightly less firm than feared and provides some support to our view that the Fed will pause in October. Nonetheless, with economic activity... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA keeps its options open after hawkish hike The RBA hiked rates as expected and kept the door open to further tightening. We still think the cash rate has peaked, as the cooling labour market should help reduce capacity pressures. However, the... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending Indicator (Aug. 26) The weakness in household spending in August suggests that the recent acceleration in consumption is already losing momentum. That probably won’t prevent the RBA from hiking rates at its meeting later... 29th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Strong growth and firm inflation to prompt more hikes The ongoing strength in AI investment should help to offset the hit to real incomes from the renewed rise in fuel prices, resulting in above-consensus GDP growth of 2.5% next year. That will lead to... 24th September 2026 · 17 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jul. 2026) The larger-than-expected 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in July isn’t the end of the world, given the advance indicator implies that sales volumes fully rebounded in August, but consumer... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rate hikes nearing their end The RBA will deliver another 25bp hike in September, given continued stickiness in underlying inflation. But unlike markets we doubt further tightening will prove necessary. With the labour market... 23rd September 2026 · 20 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (September 2026) September’s decline in consumer confidence shows that households’ moods have soured as energy prices have risen. But as long as oil and natural gas prices don’t rise a lot further, we think household... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
