Europe Economics Weekly German pension policy: backsliding more than France? While much attention has been given recently to pension policy in France, it has gone almost unnoticed that the German cabinet has approved a pension package that could be significantly more costly... 28th November 2025 · 8 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct. 25) Strong increases in industrial production and retail sales in October suggest that Japan’s economy at least stopped contracting this quarter. 28th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Sep 2025) The slightly softer-than-expected retail sales data for September won’t be enough to spoil the third quarter, with our estimate of third-quarter GDP growth still 3.6% annualised. But, together with... 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data lends credence to need for more easing A busy week of data releases has left us more confident in our view that the Bank of Canada will feel the need to cut its policy rate below neutral at some point next year to support the economy – not... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Sep. 2025) The drop in retail sales in September means growth in household consumption slowed to around 1.0% annualised in the third quarter, from 4.5% in the second. With the advance estimate for October... 21st November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Taking the pulse of the economy using alternative data Alternative data suggest the economy continued to perform reasonably well early in the fourth quarter. Fears of a renewed labour market downturn, amid reports of mass layoffs at several large firms... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Nov. 2025) Government shutdown weighing on households’ mood The further decline in the already weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment measure to a three-year low of 50.3 in November confirms that the... 7th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sept. 2025) Euro-zone households still reluctant to spend Euro-zone retail sales fell slightly in September but expanded in the third quarter as a whole. With real incomes and consumer credit both rising, we... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Sep. 25) Notwithstanding the slowdown in household spending last quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. We don't expect rate cuts to be on the agenda before the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2025) There is little evidence within September’s money and lending data that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November is influencing households’ financial decisions just yet. 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Five-Year Plan aims to rebalance fiscal spending The full proposals for China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan have just been published. These make it clear that fiscal policy will play a key role in the leadership’s efforts to lift the consumption-to-GDP... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
