Canada Economics Weekly Canada Economics Weekly: Tariff uncertainty casts clouds over recent upturn Donald Trump's first week back in office brought renewed threats of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, with a potential imposition date of February 1st also thrown in. Such uncertainty will dog... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU still “in for tariffs”, ECB set for another rate cut Though President Trump reserved his main tariff threats for others this week, he still complained about the EU’s trade surplus with the US and suggested the bloc is “in for tariffs”. We think US... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) On the surface, the 0.4% decline in retail sales volumes in November looks worrying, but that fall partly reflects households delaying purchases ahead of the December GST holiday. Encouragingly... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Gentle fall in UK household saving rate to support spending Our analysis suggests that most of the recent rise in the household saving rate can be attributed to cyclical rather than structural factors, which means the saving rate will slowly fall as interest... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s export gains go beyond strategic goods China’s surging exports have been gaining international attention, but concerns about overcapacity have focussed on “strategic sectors”. Far less acknowledged is the fact that China has been gaining... 22nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Higher energy prices; good news on EZ consumption? Recent moves in oil and natural gas markets mean that inflation might be a bit higher this year than we previously assumed, but we still expect it to be around 2%. There have also been some tentative... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) December’s 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.4% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) and rounded off a disappointing Q4, with sales declining by 0.8% q/q in Q4 overall... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Dec) The 0.4% m/m increase in retail sales in December was a little weaker than expected, with the consensus forecast as high as 0.6%, but this was actually a strong report that boosts our fourth-quarter... 16th January 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 16th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if... 13th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan. 2025) The drop in the expectations index of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey in January and the accompanying jump in inflation expectations suggest that consumers are becoming more... 10th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to keep cutting; bond vigilantes returning? The continued strength of services inflation means ECB policymakers will feel in no hurry to slash interest rates, but we still think the deposit rate will fall from 3.0% currently to 1.5% in Q3... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s easing cycle may be inching closer Economic data released this week are likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish mood. Indeed, we learnt that underlying inflation is easing in earnest and is likely to undershoot the... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov. 24) The 0.1% m/m increase in euro-zone retail sales in November was a little worse than expected and follows a fall in sales of 0.3% in October. This suggests that aggregate retail sales may have declined... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
