US Economics Weekly Little consumption upside from home refinancing uptick The extent to which the recent drop in mortgage rates and flurry of home refinancing can boost consumption is limited, as most homeowners still hold pandemic-era sub-4% loans. While there is some... 10th October 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Oct 2025) Consumer sentiment edged down to a five-month low of 55.0 in October, from 55.1, as a cocktail of labour market weakness, above-target inflation and, potentially, the ongoing government shutdown... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Soft holiday data underscore weak consumption outlook Retail sales growth slowed over the summer and there were no signs of a revival in consumer activity during the recent National Day holiday. With property prices still falling and the labour market... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ’s easing cycle will be over by year-end We were among the minority of analysts who correctly predicted that the RBNZ would slash its policy rate by 50bp this week and we still expect another 25bbp cut at its November meeting. However... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Car finance refunds slim compensation with tax rises coming The possible £8.2bn of compensation for the mis-selling of car finance will be a nice windfall for some households. But it’s much smaller than the similar payments of £38.3bn in the 2010s and will... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt... 6th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will households start spending more soon? It was confirmed this week that consumer spending grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q2. We expect consumer spending growth to accelerate, but there are three growing downside risks to that view - weaker... 3rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Early signals of Five-Year Plan priorities China's 15th Five-Year Plan will be finalised at the Fourth Plenum later this month. There are limited signs so far of a significant shift in the leadership's priorities – it seems likely that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending Indicator (August 25) 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug. 25) While the August activity data confirm that Japan’s GDP declined this quarter, that follows a strong performance over the past year and we doubt it will prevent the BoJ from resuming its tightening... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2025) There is little evidence in August’s money and lending figures that concerns over further tax rises in the Budget on 26th November are having a big influence on households’ financial decisions as of... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug 2025) The strong 0.4% m/m rise in real consumption in August, coupled with an upward revision to growth in July, is further evidence that economic activity continues to do well despite slower payrolls gains... 26th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no... 26th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
