UK Economics Update Upside risks to our forecast for household bank deposits to ease Given the fall in households’ real incomes will mean households have less cash to save, we expect the monthly flow into bank deposits to ease in our baseline scenario. But if we are wrong, it is... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will raise rates to 4.60% in Q3 The RBA will raise rates by another 25bp, to 4.35%, at its meeting next week. While the Bank will likely acknowledge that downside risks to activity have risen, it will put more emphasis on the upside... 29th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending & Consumer Expectations Surveys The ECB’s Q1 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) suggests that the negative effects of higher energy prices on economic activity in the euro-zone could be bigger than we have assumed. At the same time, the jump... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Feb. 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in February was a little softer than we expected, but the bigger news is that the flash estimate points to only a 0.6% rise in retail sales values in March... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March (CE forecast +0.5%, consensus +0.1%) meant that they rose by a chunky 1.6% q/q in Q1 overall. But April’s drop in consumer... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The sharp rise in retail sales in March mainly reflects the surge in gasoline prices, but control group sales were also stronger than we anticipated. That leaves us to estimate that real consumption... 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Households lack cushion against gasoline price shock The sharp fall in the saving rate to 4.0% in February predates the Iran war and may signal what lies ahead as households absorb much higher fuel bills. This limited cushion suggests households will... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr 2026) The plunge in consumer sentiment to a record low in April lends some support to our forecast that real consumption growth will be weak this quarter, even if the link between sentiment and spending has... 10th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Feb. 2026) The slightly softer-than-expected 0.10% m/m rise in real consumption in February, together with the downward revision to January’s estimate to show real spending unchanged, puts first-quarter... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoding the 15th Five-Year Plan China’s latest medium-term policy blueprint continues to elevate technological upgrading as the key to both security and growth. It acknowledges some of the negative side effects of industrial policy... 7th April 2026 · 51 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (Feb. 26) The recent weakness in household spending won’t stop the RBA from hiking interest rates at its upcoming meeting next month given concerns about an unanchoring of inflation expectations. 7th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Feb 2026) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in control group retail sales in February suggests that consumption was gaining some momentum ahead of the surge in gasoline prices. Nonetheless... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Time to bet against the American consumer? The backdrop of a struggling labour market, already low saving and weak consumer confidence makes it more likely that households will respond to latest real income shock by cutting spending, rather... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
