Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting

The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back into action, it's increasingly likely that the economy will run into capacity constraints before long. The RBA is therefore certain to leave rates on hold next week, and we are now less confident that rate hikes will be off the table in the months ahead.

Will the AI bubble continue to inflate? How will US-China tensions shape trade flows? Will a new Fed chair lead to much lower US rates? We’ll be highlighting what we expect to be the key drivers of macro and markets in the coming year in online Drop-In briefings on Wednesday, 10th December. Register here for our World in 2026 Drop-Ins.