RBNZ Watch

RBNZ will signal that tightening cycle is over

The labour market is weakening in earnest and inflation is falling faster than anticipated. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand therefore won’t lift interest rate any further at its upcoming meeting on 29...

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe that central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are done...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Labour market to loosen, infrastructure outlays to ease

Data released this week showed that Australia's labour market remained tight in October, while wage growth accelerated to a 14-year high in Q3. However, with leading indicators suggesting that the...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Antipodean central banks are done tightening

The RBA's decision to lift rates by 25bp earlier this week does not mark a full-fledged resumption of its hiking cycle. Rather, we believe the Bank was simply taking out additional insurance to make...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Recession still likely in Australia

Timely data suggest that both goods and services consumption gained traction last quarter. Therefore, even with a huge drag on growth from net trade, it increasingly appears that the economy managed...

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2023)

With the balance of demand and supply in the labour market showing further improvement, we’re more convinced than ever that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand won’t lift rates any higher.

Global Markets Update

New forecasts for developed market government bonds

In line with our upwardly revised forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we’ve raised our projections for 10-year government bond yields in most other developed market economies. But we still...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Stakes rise for RBA’s November policy decision

With inflation surprising on the upside and the labour market running out of spare capacity, the case for the RBA to tighten policy has never been more compelling. Although RBA Governor Michele...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Tight labour market bolsters case for a final rate hike

The decline in Australia's labour force in September reinforces our view that net migration is providing less of a boost to labour supply than many had anticipated. Indeed, NAB's Q3 business survey...

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2023)

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

New Zealand elections won’t usher in major changes

Opinion polls in the run up to tomorrow’s general election in New Zealand suggest that the centre-right National party is in pole position to wrest power from the incumbent, centre-left Labour party...

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Resurgence in price pressures won’t last

The Melbourne Institute’s timely inflation gauge suggests that trimmed inflation is likely to overshoot the RBA’s expectations for Q3. Although the Board left rates on hold this week, we therefore...

Asset Allocation Update

Bonds in Australia, NZ & Canada could outperform Treasuries

We think the yields of 10-year government bonds in Australia, New Zealand and Canada will diverge from the yield of 10-year US Treasuries – which they have tracked very closely this year – over time...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ’s next move will be down

With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we...