Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this year The RBA's decision to hike rates this week was underpinned by its view that upside risks to inflation outweigh downside risks to employment. We suspect that will remain the case for some time. Given... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2025) With the economy still operating with substantial excess capacity, we think the RBNZ will leave rates on hold for several months to come. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty around the... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hauser’s hawkishness heralds a hike In a podcast this week, RBA Deputy Governor made no bones about his view that the Bank needed to bolster its inflation-fighting credentials. His concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate price... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year. 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Aussie firms on capex spree, Ardern joins Kiwi exodus The evidence that the Australian economy is operating with excess demand continues to pile up. We learnt this week that private capex growth surged to a two-year high in Q4. Moreover, with firms... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The continued acceleration in Australia’s underlying inflation at the start of the year vindicates the... 25th February 2026 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New US tariff regime will rejig Asian electronics trade Trump’s new 15% global tariff rate reduces the tariff burden on most Asian countries, but the biggest winner is China. It still faces a higher tariff than countries elsewhere in the region, but the... 23rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The case for back-to-back hikes by the RBA Data released this week continue to indicate that the Australian economy is running up against capacity constraints. The relatively modest pickup in wage growth last quarter belies the fact that unit... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to hold fire on rate hikes until 2027 The new RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, didn’t rock the boat at her inaugural meeting today. The Committee predictably left rates unchanged, while arguing that risks to the outlook remained two-sided... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (Feb. 2026) Although the RBNZ remains cautious about the near-term outlook, it seems open to normalising policy settings before long. 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia still facing elevated capacity pressures Data released this week reinforce the need for the RBA to tighten policy settings. Provisional figures suggest that private consumption growth accelerated in Q4 and is running above the pace... 13th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start normalising policy in Q2 2027 The RBNZ will leave rates on hold at 2.25% at its meeting on 18th February. With the latest data suggesting that the balance of risks to the economic outlook has shifted somewhat to the upside, we’re... 11th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2025) The modest rise in New Zealand’s jobless rate in Q4 masks the fact that underlying labour market conditions have started to improve. That said, we still think policy tightening won’t be on the Bank’s... 3rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rate cutter’s remorse not a threat to most bond markets Australian bonds have been battered lately, and its currency boosted, by the prospect of the country’s central bank reversing course on monetary easing. But even though it’s now followed through with... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Persistence in shelter inflation will keep RBA on edge With inflation once again surprising to the upside of its expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Moreover, much to the Bank’s... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
