Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2026)

The slight fall in the jobless rate in Q1 won’t change the RBNZ’s assessment that labour market is operating with substantial excess capacity. Accordingly, we continue to believe that the Bank won’t...

6th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Plenty of inflation still in the pipeline for Australia

While the pickup in Australia’s inflation rate in Q1 fell short of the analyst consensus, it remains far too high for the RBA’s comfort. Moreover, with the indirect effects of higher energy prices on...

1st May 2026 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Inflation risks continue to climb higher in Australia

Australia's flash PMIs suggest that business conditions bounced back in April, while firms' hiring intentions strengthened in tandem. However, firms have yet to see any respite from intensifying price...

24th April 2026 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2026)

While headline inflation remains well above the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target, the continued softening of underlying inflation means that the Bank won’t be in a rush to tighten policy.

21st April 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA caught between a rock and a hard place

Although business confidence in Australia has plunged in the wake of the Iran war, indicators of underlying activity remain fairly resilient. With capacity pressures elevated and inflation risks...

17th April 2026 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Albanese enters crisis management mode

We are sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Good Friday, 3rd April. The Australian government's decision to slash...

2nd April 2026 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet

Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least...

1st April 2026 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Rising inflation expectations are a problem for the RBA

There are signs that Australia's electricity inflation will ease in the coming months, as domestic generation costs remain contained despite the crisis. However, the more pressing concern for...

27th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (March 2026)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price...

26th March 2026 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this year

The RBA's decision to hike rates this week was underpinned by its view that upside risks to inflation outweigh downside risks to employment. We suspect that will remain the case for some time. Given...

20th March 2026 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand GDP (Q4 2025)

With the economy still operating with substantial excess capacity, we think the RBNZ will leave rates on hold for several months to come. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty around the...

18th March 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Hauser’s hawkishness heralds a hike

In a podcast this week, RBA Deputy Governor made no bones about his view that the Bank needed to bolster its inflation-fighting credentials. His concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate price...

13th March 2026 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year

The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year.

9th March 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia

Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost...

6th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Aussie firms on capex spree, Ardern joins Kiwi exodus

The evidence that the Australian economy is operating with excess demand continues to pile up. We learnt this week that private capex growth surged to a two-year high in Q4. Moreover, with firms...

27th February 2026 · 5 mins read