Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Australia & NZ: canaries in the markets coalmine? The market reaction to the apparent ends of the Australian and New Zealand easing cycles could provide a blueprint for how Treasuries and the US dollar will behave as the Fed winds up its own. 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is done cutting rates this cycle With underlying inflation continuing to surprise to the upside and domestic demand being propped up by a revival in private investment, we no longer expect the RBA to loosen policy any further... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The case for a prolonged pause by the RBNZ The RBNZ has signalled its easing cycle is over and that policy normalisation could be on the agenda as soon as mid-2027. However, it is assuming that spare capacity will diminish much more rapidly... 26th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ done cutting, but no hikes before H2 2027 In line with our long-held forecast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.25% at its meeting today and signalled that its easing cycle has now come to an end. As the recovery gains traction... 26th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand: weak population growth holding back recovery The tighter labour market in Australia will continue to encourage large numbers of New Zealanders to move to Australia, holding back the recovery in the housing market and consumer spending. While... 25th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures will abate before long The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to equivocate about the outlook for interest rates, given uncertainty over the extent of spare capacity in the economy. However, with wage pressures showing... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia poised to reap benefits from AI boom Australian imports of automatic data processing machines are growing at a breakneck pace, driven by the rapid expansion of data centre construction. We believe the AI revolution will continue to... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2025) The tepid Q3 jobs report should ensure that the RBNZ cuts rates by another 25bp at its meeting on 26 th November. However, given signs that the labour market is bottoming out, we suspect that this cut... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, but easing cycle not over With underlying inflation in Australia having surprised materially to the upside in Q3, the RBA is all but certain to leave rates unchanged next week. However, unlike several other analysts we're not... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
