Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Consumer revival to temper RBA rate-cut outlook

The Australian economy bounced back strongly last quarter, buoyed by a sharp rise in consumer spending. With households' real incomes growing strongly and housing wealth increasing in tandem, we...

5th September 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe monetary easing has further to run in the Antipodes. The case for policy stimulus is clear...

27th August 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBNZ turns dovish, Australia discusses tax reform

When the RBNZ cut rates by 25bp at its meeting this week, it acknowledged that it would need to lower the policy rate all the way to 2.5% this cycle – consistent with our longstanding forecast. And...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by year-end

When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it effectively endorsed our long-held forecast for a below-consensus terminal rate of 2.5%. However, with the Bank judging the balance of risks to the...

20th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBNZ Meeting (Aug. 2025)

When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it clearly signalled that there is more easing in the pipeline. Accordingly, we’re more confident than ever in our below-consensus terminal rate forecast of...

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Strong jobs market won’t keep RBA from easing further

When the RBA delivered a 25bp cut this week, it signalled a willingness to lower rates below 3% for the first time this cycle. Although subsequently released labour market and wage data surprised...

15th August 2025 · 4 mins read

RBNZ Watch

RBNZ’s easing cycle has further to go

The RBNZ is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on August 20 th. Although inflation is set to remain in the upper half of the Bank’s 1-3% target band in the near-term, we...

13th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Productivity growth picking up in New Zealand

While the Q2 labour force survey out of New Zealand showed that labour demand remains dismal, it's worth noting that firms have been squeezing more out of their existing employees. The resultant lift...

8th August 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

NZD and AUD likely to struggle over the rest of the year

The high-beta Antipodean currencies had been the worst victims of global trade tensions but have fared better since early April, relative to their G10 peers, as global risk appetite steadily improved...

7th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2025)

With New Zealand’s labour market continuing to slacken in Q2, the RBNZ is all but certain push ahead with a 25bp cut at its meeting later this month.

6th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: CPI data signal green light for August rate cut

Australian CPI data released this week will have gone a long way toward assuaging the RBA's concerns about lingering price pressures in the economy. And although retail sales picked up strongly in...

1st August 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA’s gradualism poses upside risks to rates

The minutes of the RBA's July meeting showed that the Board remains reluctant to declare victory in the war on inflation – a sentiment reiterated by Governor Bullock in a speech this week. We suspect...

25th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (July 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New...

24th July 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2025)

With underlying price pressures remaining benign, the RBNZ is likely to loosen policy a bit further than most are anticipating.

21st July 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Labour market not an obstacle to RBA rate cuts

The strong uptick in Australia's unemployment rate in June may be overstating the actual degree of slack in the labour market. After all, the underutilisation rate remains historically low and...

18th July 2025 · 5 mins read