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Australia & New Zealand Economics

This service offers in-depth economic analysis and independent forecasts for the economies and financial markets of Australia and New Zealand. There is a particular emphasis on how global events and commodities markets influence the two countries and their exchange rates.

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Main Economic & Market Forecasts

%q/q(%y/y) unless stated

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

2023

2024

2025

Australia

GDP

0.5(2.7)

0.1(2.1)

-0.2(1.1)

0(0.4)

0.2(0.1)

(0.9)

(1.2)

(3.1)

CPI Inflation (NSA)

(7.8)

(7.0)

(6.0)

(5.0)

(4.7)

(5.7)

(3.0)

(1.8)

Core CPI Inflation1 (NSA)

(7.1)

(6.6)

(5.8)

(5.0)

(4.1)

(5.4)

(3.1)

(2.4)

Unemployment Rate (Ave., %)

3.5

3.6

3.8

4.1

4.4

4.0

5.1

4.9

RBA Cash Rate, End Period (%)

3.10

3.60

3.85

3.85

3.85

3.85

3.10

3.10

US$/AUS$, End Period

0.68

0.67

0.67

0.67

0.68

0.68

0.66

0.72

New Zealand

GDP (production basis)

-0.6(2.2)

-0.8(1.8)

-0.7(-0.5)

-0.1(-2.2)

0.0(-1.6)

(-0.6)

(1.2)

(3.3)

CPI Inflation (NSA)

(7.2)

(6.7)

(5.8)

(4.5)

(3.7)

(5.2)

(2.7)

(2.1)

Core CPI Inflation1 (NSA)

(6.7)

(6.5)

(5.5)

(3.8)

(2.7)

(4.6)

(2.2)

(2.3)

Unemployment Rate (%)

3.4

3.4

3.8

4.3

4.7

4.1

5.2

5.2

RBNZ Cash Rate, End Period (%)

4.25

4.75

5.50

5.50

5.00

5.00

3.00

3.00

US$/NZ$, End Period

0.63

0.63

0.62

0.62

0.62

0.62

0.60

0.61

AUS$/NZ$, End Period

0.93

0.94

0.92

0.92

0.91

0.91

0.91

0.85

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics; 1Excludes food, household energy and vehicle fuel.

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