Australia & New Zealand Economics
This service offers in-depth economic analysis and independent forecasts for the economies and financial markets of Australia and New Zealand. There is a particular emphasis on how global events and commodities markets influence the two countries and their exchange rates.
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Key Forecasts
|
Main Economic & Market Forecasts |
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|
%q/q(%y/y) unless stated |
Q4 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
|
Australia |
||||||||
|
GDP |
0.5(2.7) |
0.1(2.1) |
-0.2(1.1) |
0(0.4) |
0.2(0.1) |
(0.9) |
(1.2) |
(3.1) |
|
CPI Inflation (NSA) |
(7.8) |
(7.0) |
(6.0) |
(5.0) |
(4.7) |
(5.7) |
(3.0) |
(1.8) |
|
Core CPI Inflation1 (NSA) |
(7.1) |
(6.6) |
(5.8) |
(5.0) |
(4.1) |
(5.4) |
(3.1) |
(2.4) |
|
Unemployment Rate (Ave., %) |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
|
RBA Cash Rate, End Period (%) |
3.10 |
3.60 |
3.85 |
3.85 |
3.85 |
3.85 |
3.10 |
3.10 |
|
US$/AUS$, End Period |
0.68 |
0.67 |
0.67 |
0.67 |
0.68 |
0.68 |
0.66 |
0.72 |
|
New Zealand |
||||||||
|
GDP (production basis) |
-0.6(2.2) |
-0.8(1.8) |
-0.7(-0.5) |
-0.1(-2.2) |
0.0(-1.6) |
(-0.6) |
(1.2) |
(3.3) |
|
CPI Inflation (NSA) |
(7.2) |
(6.7) |
(5.8) |
(4.5) |
(3.7) |
(5.2) |
(2.7) |
(2.1) |
|
Core CPI Inflation1 (NSA) |
(6.7) |
(6.5) |
(5.5) |
(3.8) |
(2.7) |
(4.6) |
(2.2) |
(2.3) |
|
Unemployment Rate (%) |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
4.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
|
RBNZ Cash Rate, End Period (%) |
4.25 |
4.75 |
5.50 |
5.50 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
|
US$/NZ$, End Period |
0.63 |
0.63 |
0.62 |
0.62 |
0.62 |
0.62 |
0.60 |
0.61 |
|
AUS$/NZ$, End Period |
0.93 |
0.94 |
0.92 |
0.92 |
0.91 |
0.91 |
0.91 |
0.85 |
|
Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics; 1Excludes food, household energy and vehicle fuel. |
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All Australia & New Zealand Coverage
Featured Economists
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Marcel Thieliant
Head of Asia-Pacific
Marcel Thieliant is Capital Economics’ Head of Asia Pacific. Marcel runs our Australia and New Zealand Service as well as our Japan Service from our Singapore office. Marcel joined Capital Economics in June 2013. Previously he worked for six years at Credit Suisse Private Bank, covering Asian and European economies. He has a Master’s degree in Economics from the University of St. Gallen and is a CFA charterholder. Focus Economics named Marcel the #1 Overall Forecaster for both Australia and New Zealand in 2020 and again in 2021. Marcel also won the Consensus Economics 2020 Forecast Accuracy Award for Australia and the Consensus Economics 2019 Forecast Accuracy Award for New Zealand.
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Abhijit Surya
Australia and New Zealand Economist
Abhijit Surya joined Capital Economics in February 2023 as the Australia and New Zealand Economist. Prior to joining us, Abhijit worked at The Economist Intelligence Unit for five years, where he covered several Latin American economies including Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela. He has a Master’s degree in Economics from the Paris School of Economics.