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Australia & New Zealand Economics

This service offers in-depth economic analysis and independent forecasts for the economies and financial markets of Australia and New Zealand. There is a particular emphasis on how global events and commodities markets influence the two countries and their exchange rates.

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Latest Insights

Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

%q/q(%y/y) unless stated

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

2022

2023

2024

Australia

GDP

0.8(3.3)

1.7(4.2)

0.6(6.7)

0.6(3.7)

0.1(3.0)

0.1(1.4)

(4.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

CPI Inflation (NSA)

(5.1)

(6.1)

(7.3)

(7.7)

(7.0)

(5.8)

(6.6)

(5.0)

(2.2)

Core CPI Inflation1 (NSA)

(4.0)

(5.3)

(6.7)

(6.9)

(6.5)

(5.5)

(5.7)

(4.8)

(2.5)

Unemployment Rate (Ave., %)

4.1

3.8

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.5

4.3

RBA Cash Rate, End Period (%)

0.10

0.85

2.35

3.10

3.60

3.60

3.10

3.35

3.10

US$/AUS$, End Period

0.75

0.69

0.67

0.66

0.66

0.65

0.66

0.64

0.64

New Zealand

GDP (production basis)

-0.2(1.2)

1.8(0.6)

0.3(5.0)

0.0(1.9)

0.1(2.1)

0.2(0.5)

(2.2)

(1.0)

(1.9)

CPI Inflation (NSA)

(6.9)

(7.3)

(6.2)

(5.3)

(4.2)

(3.1)

(6.4)

(3.2)

(2.8)

Core CPI Inflation1 (NSA)

(5.9)

(6.1)

(5.3)

(4.6)

(4.2)

(3.4)

(5.5)

(3.4)

(2.9)

Unemployment Rate (%)

3.2

3.3

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.7

3.5

4.8

5.5

RBNZ Cash Rate, End Period (%)

1.00

2.00

3.00

3.75

4.00

4.00

3.75

3.50

3.25

US$/NZ$, End Period

0.70

0.62

0.61

0.60

0.60

0.59

0.60

0.58

0.58

Aus$/NZ$, End Period

0.93

0.90

0.91

0.91

0.91

0.91

0.91

0.91

0.91

Sources: Bloomberg, Capital Economics; 1Excludes food, household energy and vehicle fuel.