Australia & New Zealand Economics

This service offers in-depth economic analysis and independent forecasts for the economies and financial markets of Australia and New Zealand. There is a particular emphasis on how global events and commodities markets influence the two countries and their exchange rates.

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Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

%q/q(%y/y) unless stated	Q2 2023	Q3 2023	Q4 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	2023	2024	2025
Australia
GDP	0.4(2.1)	-0.2(1.2)	-0.2(0.4)	0.4(0.5)	0.3(0.4)	(1.5)	(1.0)	(2.8)
CPI Inflation (NSA)	(6.0)	(5.0)	(4.1)	(3.6)	(3.2)	(5.6)	(2.9)	(1.9)
Core CPI Inflation¹ (NSA)	(5.8)	(4.6)	(3.7)	(3.3)	(3.0)	(5.2)	(3.1)	(2.5)
Unemployment Rate (Ave., %)	3.6	3.7	4.2	4.8	4.9	3.8	4.8	4.7
RBA Cash Rate, End Period (%)	4.10	4.10	4.10	3.85	3.35	4.10	3.10	3.10
US$/AUS$, End Period	0.66	0.65	0.64	0.65	0.66	0.64	0.68	0.74
New Zealand
GDP (production basis)	0.9(1.8)	-0.7(-0.4)	-0.4(-0.3)	0.5(0.2)	0.9(0.2)	(0.8)	(1.3)	(3.0)
CPI Inflation (NSA)	(6.0)	(6.0)	(5.6)	(4.8)	(4.2)	(6.1)	(3.6)	(2.3)
Core CPI Inflation¹ (NSA)	(6.1)	(5.5)	(4.8)	(4.1)	(3.4)	(5.7)	(3.1)	(2.3)
Unemployment Rate (%)	3.6	4.0	4.4	4.6	4.8	3.9	4.8	4.9
RBNZ Cash Rate, End Period (%)	5.50	5.50	5.50	5.50	5.50	5.50	4.25	3.00
US$/NZ$, End Period	0.61	0.59	0.56	0.57	0.58	0.56	0.60	0.64
AUS$/NZ$, End Period	0.92	0.91	0.87	0.87	0.88	0.87	0.88	0.87
Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics; ¹Excludes food, household energy and vehicle fuel.