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Australia & New Zealand Economics

This service offers in-depth economic analysis and independent forecasts for the economies and financial markets of Australia and New Zealand. There is a particular emphasis on how global events and commodities markets influence the two countries and their exchange rates.

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Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

%q/q(%y/y) unless stated

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

2023

2024

2025

Australia

GDP

0.0(1.2)

0.3(0.9)

0.4(0.9)

0.5(1.2)

0.7(1.9)

(1.9)

(1.2)

(2.8)

CPI Inflation (NSA)

(4.1)

(3.2)

(3.0)

(2.4)

(2.3)

(5.6)

(2.7)

(2.0)

Trimmed Mean Inflation (SA)

(4.2)

(3.7)

(3.5)

(3.1)

(3.0)

(5.4)

(3.3)

(2.5)

Unemployment Rate (Ave., %)

3.9

4.0

4.3

4.4

4.5

3.7

4.3

4.4

RBA Cash Rate, End Period (%)

4.35

4.35

4.35

4.10

3.85

4.35

3.85

3.10

US$/AUS$, End Period

0.68

0.68

0.67

0.66

0.66

0.68

0.66

0.72

New Zealand

GDP (production basis)

0.5(0.5)

0.5(1.2)

0.6(1.3)

0.6(2.1)

0.6(2.3)

(0.8)

(1.7)

(3.0)

CPI Inflation (NSA)

(4.7)

(3.7)

(3.2)

(2.3)

(2.0)

(5.7)

(2.8)

(1.9)

Core CPI Inflation1 (NSA)

(4.1)

(3.6)

(3.1)

(2.5)

(1.9)

(5.5)

(2.8)

(1.8)

Unemployment Rate (%)

4.0

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.9

3.7

4.6

4.7

RBNZ Cash Rate, End Period (%)

5.50

5.50

5.50

5.00

4.25

5.50

4.25

3.00

US$/NZ$, End Period

0.63

0.62

0.62

0.61

0.60

0.63

0.60

0.64

AUS$/NZ$, End Period

0.93

0.92

0.92

0.91

0.91

0.93

0.91

0.89

Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics; 1Excludes food, household energy and vehicle fuel.

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