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Australia and New Zealand Economics

Our Australia and New Zealand coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and economic outlooks for the economies and financial markets of both countries. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future economic dynamics.

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This service offers in-depth economic analysis and independent forecasts for the economies and financial markets of Australia and New Zealand. There is a particular emphasis on how global events and commodities markets influence the two countries and their exchange rates.

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Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

%q/q(%y/y) unless stated

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

2024

2025

2026

Australia

GDP

0.2(1.0)

0.3(1.0)

0.5(1.2)

0.3(1.3)

0.5(1.6)

(1.1)

(1.7)

(2.6)

CPI Inflation (NSA)

(3.8)

(2.5)

(2.5)

(2.7)

(1.9)

(3.1)

(2.6)

(2.4)

Trimmed Mean Inflation (SA)

(3.9)

(3.5)

(3.3)

(3.0)

(2.8)

(3.7)

(2.7)

(2.7)

Unemployment Rate (Ave., %)

4.1

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.1

4.6

4.8

RBA Cash Rate, End Period (%)

4.35

4.35

4.35

4.10

3.85

4.35

3.60

3.60

US$/AUS$, End Period

0.66

0.66

0.66

0.67

0.68

0.66

0.70

0.70

New Zealand

GDP (production basis)

-0.2(-0.5)

0.0(-0.1)

0.2(0.1)

0.6(0.6)

0.6(1.4)

(0.0)

(1.6)

(3.0)

CPI Inflation (NSA)

(3.3)

(2.2)

(2.1)

(2.0)

(1.8)

(2.9)

(1.9)

(2.1)

Core CPI Inflation1 (NSA)

(3.4)

(2.7)

(2.4)

(1.9)

(1.8)

(3.2)

(2.1)

(2.5)

Unemployment Rate (%)

4.6

5.0

5.3

5.4

5.5

4.8

5.5

5.5

RBNZ Cash Rate, End Period (%)

5.50

5.25

4.25

3.75

3.25

4.25

2.25

2.25

US$/NZ$, End Period

0.61

0.60

0.60

0.59

0.59

0.60

0.58

0.58

AUS$/NZ$, End Period

0.92

0.91

0.91

0.89

0.87

0.91

0.83

0.83


Sources: LSEG, Capital Economics; 1Excludes food, household energy and vehicle fuel.

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