We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of insurance to shore up the fragile economic recovery. Markets see a decent chance of further easing in early-2026. However, with the policy rate now well below neutral, we suspect the Bank will be wary of over-injecting stimulus into the economy.
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