Europe Economics Update ECB independence is not at risk The ECB does not face the same imminent threat to its independence as the US Fed, but it could come under more pressure from politicians in future. However, it would be much harder for governments to... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly February may be too soon, but rate cuts to keep on coming Unless next week’s labour market and inflation data are unanimously weak, February may be too soon for another interest rate cut given the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt at its December meeting. But... 16th January 2026 · 10 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will signal more rate hikes The Bank of Japan’s Board will revise up their GDP growth forecasts next week as downside risks from tariffs have abated. And while the government’s energy subsidies will result in lower forecasts for... 15th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.00%, is likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, and we expect two further 25bp cuts over the... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel opted to reduce its policy rate by another 25bp to 4.00% today, and the tone of its communications suggests that its easing cycle has further to run. We now expect a further 50bp of... 5th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Dec 9-10) The minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting, when it voted to lower the fed funds target range by 25bp to between 3.50% and 3.75%, are somewhat outdated given the slew of delayed data releases since... 30th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation process... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals additional rate hikes are in the pipeline When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Dec. 2025) The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates at its meeting today was clearly signalled ahead of time and therefore came as no surprise. Crucially, however, the Board’s hawkish messaging... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp interest rate cut, to 7.00%, today but its communications suggest that it will likely pause at the next meeting in February. We expect a more... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB still neutral on interest rates The tone of today’s ECB press conference was fairly bullish on the economic outlook, but Christine Lagarde stuck rigidly to neutral messaging on future interest rate decisions. While policy changes... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Hawkish tilt at the BoE, but rate cuts to keep on coming The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, as was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain on hold next year. We continue to think the CNB’s... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (December 2025) Today’s ECB press release suggests that the strength of recent economic data has not changed policymakers’ assessment of the monetary policy outlook. Changes in interest rates early next year look... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
