Bank of Canada Watch Elevated oil prices to give BoC meeting a hawkish tilt The improved growth backdrop and nascent threat of higher inflation expectations means the Bank of Canada will keep rates on hold again but likely take a more hawkish tone at its meeting next week. 22nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (April 2026) Bank Indonesia left its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% today as officials’ concerns about the weakness of the rupiah countered its desire to support economic growth. So long as the rupiah doesn’t come... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will wait until June before hiking again While the Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged next week, we suspect it will judge that risks to economic activity are tilted to the downside for now. While that would normally point to a... 20th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will wait until June before tightening policy again Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled this week that a rate hike at the Bank’s April meeting is off the table. While there’s a risk of prolonged inaction, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over the... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Mar 17-18) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-March meeting suggest that the spike in oil prices led to more concern about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to the labour market, with “some”... 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ not in a rush to tighten policy While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand discussed a pre-emptive rate hike at its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Committee signalled that the drag on economic activity from higher energy prices will... 8th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting (April 26) 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Colombia’s central bank raised its policy rate by another 100bp, to 11.25%, at its meeting today and with the inflation outlook set to deteriorate further over the coming months, we think additional... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00% today amid concerns about renewed inflationary and geopolitical risks. Interest rates will remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, but... 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Effects of Iran conflict beginning to show up There were clear signs this week that the Iran conflict is causing inflation and inflation expectations to rise in the euro-zone. Next week we expect to learn that headline inflation jumped from 1.9%... 27th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered a dovish surprise today as it lowered its policy rate by 25bp, to 6.75%, and signalled that it would consider cutting interest rates again. While this could... 26th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines: unpacking the hit from the Iran war The state of emergency now in place in the Philippines gives the government powers to address the most acute strains in access to essential inputs, but it won’t prevent an economic shock. The central... 26th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today, and we think the recent surge in global energy prices has effectively closed the door on the easing cycle for now. Interest... 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
