Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tax changes wouldn’t impact housing market much Australia’s government is mulling tax changes that would make it less attractive for investors to buy rental properties. While that may result in small falls in house prices and could reduce the... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ not in a rush to tighten policy While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand discussed a pre-emptive rate hike at its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Committee signalled that the drag on economic activity from higher energy prices will... 8th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How would fuel rationing affect Australia’s economy? Australia’s supply of petroleum products will dwindle over the coming weeks, which could prompt the government to impose fuel rationing. It seems likely that any restrictions will initially target... 1st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian housing market poised for a downturn Australian house prices have lost some momentum in recent months. With the Reserve Bank of Australia set to hike rates to 4.60% in the coming months, we think house prices will fall outright before... 1st April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Why is Australia’s housing market still defying gravity? Even though housing is the least affordable since the early-1990s, a pronounced shortage of housing supply has contributed to continued robust growth in house prices. While higher mortgage rates will... 25th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy crisis won’t hasten Australia’s shift to renewables The Iran conflict has exposed Australia’s continued reliance on fossil fuels, reigniting debate over a green energy pivot. While the government has legislated ambitious climate targets, it has shown... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates again in May Although the RBA’s decision to raise rates at its meeting today was made by the narrowest of margins, the split vote primarily reflected differences regarding the timing of the move rather than the... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy shortages rippling through Australian supply chains With supplies of crude oil from the Gulf dwindling, local prices of petroleum products imported from the Asia-Pacific region have already risen more sharply than movements in crude oil prices would... 16th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Last hurrah for Australian iron ore mining Resources exports rose strongly last year, driven by a jump in iron ore exports. However, the bigger picture is that global steel output is past its peak and a sustained pick-up in mining investment... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year. 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
