Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike to 3.25% by year-end We expect the RBNZ to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, at its October meeting, as it seeks to mitigate upside risks to inflation. We’ve also brought forward our forecast for the final... 22nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher neutral rate need not prompt more tightening The evidence that the neutral rate of interest has continued to rise is mixed. And with excess demand now clearly diminishing, we’re not convinced that further monetary tightening is warranted. 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update No reprieve for the housing market yet Australia’s housing downturn still has further to run, even if there are tentative signs that demand is beginning to stabilise. Weakening housing market conditions should help ease shelter inflation... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Public sector still not providing helping hand to RBA The public sector has reined in its profligate tendencies ever so slightly in recent quarters, but the 2026/27 state and federal Budgets point to continued strong growth in government spending. That... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA keeps its options open after hawkish hike The RBA hiked rates as expected and kept the door open to further tightening. We still think the cash rate has peaked, as the cooling labour market should help reduce capacity pressures. However, the... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZ Labour’s tax plan risks delaying housing rebound Opinion polls suggest that New Zealand’s Labour party has a path back to power in November’s general election. Labour’s plan to introduce a capital gains tax on residential investment property risks... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ tones down its hawkish bias a touch The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates as expected, but struck a more balanced tone on the risks to its outlook. Although another hike this year seems likely, we continue to expect the OCR to... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing-market outlook hinges on the RBA Australian house prices continued to fall at a rapid pace in August. While we expect the pace of monthly declines to ease more noticeably in the months ahead, risks to this view have increased. If the... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of housing tax changes still difficult to detect While there’s a risk that the tax changes announced in the Budget will result in a more pronounced downturn, for now we’re comfortable with our forecast of a 6% peak-to-trough fall in house prices. 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA retains hawkish bias, but next move will be a cut While the RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged today was widely expected, the Board took pains to reiterate that it remains prepared to tighten policy further if needed. However, despite its tough... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will prevent further rate hikes Australian house prices kept falling at a rapid pace in July. With affordability still very stretched and leading indicators flashing red, the downturn has much further to run. 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Data centre boom making the RBA’s job harder Australia’s data centre boom has yet to generate a broad-based inflationary impulse. But by adding demand to an already stretched construction sector, it risks prolonging capacity constraints and... 15th July 2026 · 4 mins read
