Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Last hurrah for Australian iron ore mining Resources exports rose strongly last year, driven by a jump in iron ore exports. However, the bigger picture is that global steel output is past its peak and a sustained pick-up in mining investment... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year. 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's public sector adding to inflationary pressures Australia’s public sector can’t be blamed for the renewed acceleration in inflation across the second half of last year. But the inexorable surge in public spending in recent years is a key reason why... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing market loses some steam Australian house prices pared their gains in February, as housing demand softened a touch. Although the slowdown was driven largely by Sydney and Melbourne, we suspect it will become more broad-based... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Bonds Update AUS-NZ yield spread set to widen further We think the 10-year Australian government bond yield will reach 5% this year as the RBA hikes by more than investors anticipate. But we see less scope for yields to rise in New Zealand as the RBNZ is... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to hold fire on rate hikes until 2027 The new RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, didn’t rock the boat at her inaugural meeting today. The Committee predictably left rates unchanged, while arguing that risks to the outlook remained two-sided... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start normalising policy in Q2 2027 The RBNZ will leave rates on hold at 2.25% at its meeting on 18th February. With the latest data suggesting that the balance of risks to the economic outlook has shifted somewhat to the upside, we’re... 11th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates to 4.35% The recent pick-up in economic activity and inflation suggests that the neutral rate of interest may now be closer to 4% instead of the RBA’s estimate of around 3.5%. Given that the RBA believes that... 4th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA raises rates, leaves door ajar for further hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia struck an unambiguously hawkish tone when it raised rates by 25bp at its meeting today. Our base case is that the Bank will deliver only one more 25bp hike this year, but... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong housing market bolsters case for RBA hikes Australia’s house price rally maintained solid momentum in January, while growth in advertised rents accelerated further. With the housing sector likely to feed inflationary pressures for a while to... 2nd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing rally will soon slow in earnest Australia’s house price rally lost some steam in December and if we’re right that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates as soon as February this slowdown has further to run. 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
