Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike rates in July The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today came down to the wire, and it signalled that it would need to unwind its accommodative stance sooner rather than later. Accordingly, we’re bringing... 27th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to stay put, while maintaining policy optionality The RBNZ is likely to leave rates on hold at its meeting next Wednesday, while stressing that it stands prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures show signs of persistence. In our baseline... 20th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tax changes not a major threat to housing market Some commentators have been arguing that the tax changes announced in last week’s Budget will end the 30-year super cycle in housing. By contrast, we’re not convinced that the attractiveness of... 18th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget leaves RBA to do the heavy lifting on inflation The Australian government’s 2026/27 Budget does little to move the needle on fiscal policy. Although Commonwealth coffers will benefit from a windfall driven by higher commodity prices, much of this... 12th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher energy prices will lift building costs On their own, the recent surge in crude oil prices could lift construction costs by around 4%. However, the bigger picture is that in contrast to the previous energy shock in 2022, conditions in... 7th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hikes again, but sees risks as more two-sided The RBA’s decision to hike rates again at its meeting today came as little surprise. In her post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock argued that with policy settings mildly restrictive again... 5th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The worst is yet to come for Australia’s housing market Australian house prices all but ground to a halt last month. And with affordability set to deteriorate further in the near term, we expect house prices to fall outright before long. Much to the RBA’s... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tax changes wouldn’t impact housing market much Australia’s government is mulling tax changes that would make it less attractive for investors to buy rental properties. While that may result in small falls in house prices and could reduce the... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ not in a rush to tighten policy While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand discussed a pre-emptive rate hike at its meeting today, the Monetary Policy Committee signalled that the drag on economic activity from higher energy prices will... 8th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How would fuel rationing affect Australia’s economy? Australia’s supply of petroleum products will dwindle over the coming weeks, which could prompt the government to impose fuel rationing. It seems likely that any restrictions will initially target... 1st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian housing market poised for a downturn Australian house prices have lost some momentum in recent months. With the Reserve Bank of Australia set to hike rates to 4.60% in the coming months, we think house prices will fall outright before... 1st April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Why is Australia’s housing market still defying gravity? Even though housing is the least affordable since the early-1990s, a pronounced shortage of housing supply has contributed to continued robust growth in house prices. While higher mortgage rates will... 25th March 2026 · 4 mins read
