The RBNZ will leave rates on hold at 2.25% at its meeting on 18th February. With the latest data suggesting that the balance of risks to the economic outlook has shifted somewhat to the upside, we’re bringing forward our forecast for the Bank’s first hike from Q4 2027 to Q2 2027. That said, we remain less hawkish than financial markets, which expect policy tightening to be on the agenda as soon as the second half of this year.
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