CE Data Blog

April 2025

China activity proxy suggests economy much weaker than government claims

The latest monthly refresh of our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to the growth rate falling below 4% for the first time since COVID lockdowns were lifted – presenting a much weaker picture of the economy’s health than official data. Explore the CAP for an independent measure of underlying activity in China here. (29^th April)

Financial conditions in advanced economies on the mend

Much of the recent talk about tightening financial conditions has relied on financial conditions indices (FCIs) distorted by falling equities prices. Our FCIs avoid this by including broader measures based on monthly data for firms and households, showing that conditions are actually looser than a year ago. Explore the data and read the full analysis on the dashboard. (28^th April)

Asset allocation in a Brave New World

Our base case is that the turmoil across financial markets in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement will continue to stabilise. As such, we assume that most asset prices and the dollar will recover some ground, with equities faring best. But some of the damage to confidence – in particular in US asset markets and the dollar – may prove longer-lasting. Download our cross-asset total returns projections here. (23^rd April)

New Tariff Impact Model

Play POTUS and explore our new Tariff Impact Model. Enter your own US tariff rates to gauge the impact on GDP in economies around the world, as well as on the average tariff rate and price levels in the US. (11th April)

Commodity Tariff Trackers

Reciprocal tariffs may have been paused, but steel and aluminium tariffs are still in place with copper potentially in the firing line. Keep track of tariff effects on these crucial metals and oil in our Metals Tariff Impact Tracker and our Oil Tariff Impact Tracker respectively. (11th April)

March 2025

Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth

We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s economy, and looser fiscal policy will provide just a modest boost to growth in Europe. Stay up to date with our latest forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, policy rates and commodity prices on our Key Forecasts dashboard. CE Advance clients can explore all our proprietary data and forecasts here. (27^th March)

New UK Employment Indicator - a trustworthy guide to UK employment growth

Our new CE UK Employment Indicator extracts the signal from a range of measures of actual employment growth and surveyed employment to provide a trustworthy guide to UK employment growth. (19^th March)

New Corporate Bonds dashboard

Explore historical relationships and our forecasts for investment grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) corporate bonds in the US, UK and Eurozone in this new interactive dashboard. Drill deeper into the characteristics of these bond indices and see our forecasts for yields, option-adjusted spreads and total returns out to end-2026. (19^th March)

Track the domestic impact of Trump 2.0

Track DOGE efforts to reduce the size of the Federal government, tariff rates and the Federal budget deficit in a new dedicated page on our US macro dashboard. You can also use the dashboard to download our latest US forecasts. (12th March)

New Trade War Dashboard

Cut through the noise of the news cycle with our immersive, interactive guide to the most pressing issue facing the global economic outlook, and learn which of the world's 30 largest economies are most exposed to higher tariffs, which are most vulnerable to them, and the steps that could be taken to mitigate their impact. (6th March)

Political pushback won’t halt long-term decline in emissions

Economics, not policy, will drive emissions reductions. Our climate team has updated their long-term emissions forecasting framework and the latest forecasts can be downloaded from our Global Climate Databank. Alternatively, create your own emissions scenarios with our interactive Emissions Scenario Generator and explore our full suite of Climate Reporting Tools. (6th March)

Beating the consensus in real-time

At 0.6%, Australian GDP growth for Q4 came in above the analyst consensus but right in line with the estimate of our Australia GDP Nowcast. Our newly released Brazil Nowcast also outperformed the consensus. Explore the Nowcasts dashboard to see how our growing suite of models are tracking Q1. (5th March)

Updated US remote worker preference scores

Austin has taken the top spot in our updated analysis of the most attractive apartment markets in the US for remote workers. Refreshed annually, these proprietary scores give insight into apartment asking rent growth over the following couple of years and migration trends. (3rd March)

February 2025

Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption

Our Long Run coverage is designed to cut through the noise of a hyper-compressed news cycle and explore how the global economy and markets will evolve for long-term investors. Our view is that Trump’s agenda won’t outweigh forces like demographics and AI’s diffusion, and you can find all our latest forecasts out to 2050 here. (25^th February)

Commercial property, forecasted

If you’re following our new series of work on commercial property five years on from the pandemic, you can explore and download our forecasts for major sectors across the US, UK and Europe to see how we expect these markets to perform in the coming five years. (21^st February) 

Tariffs and US oil imports

With tariffs on Canada and Mexico imports only on hold, this oil dashboard has been created to help clients see how their crude supply fits into the US demand picture and track near-term changes to shipments, production and prices should Trump push the button come early March. (7^th February)

New year, new president, new scenarios

Donald Trump's first weeks back in office have increased the probability of 'stagflation lite' for the US economy and reduced the chances of 'goldilocks' or 'no landing' scenarios. Explore our US Scenarios dashboard and the updates to our four US macroeconomic scenarios, now reflecting the risks around the new president's policy agenda. (1^st February)

January 2025

GDP growth in real time

At 2.3% annualised, US GDP growth for Q4 came in below the analyst consensus but right in line with the estimate generated by our US GDP Nowcast. Ahead of official Q4 GDP releases, explore our Nowcasts dashboard to see how we're estimating the economies of Canada, the UK, Japan and Australia performed at the end of last year. (30th January)

EMs’ pockets of peril

Our proprietary dashboard measuring EM financial risks shows a general improvement across these economies, helped by receding currency risk. But Senior EM Economist Liam Peach warns in accompanying analysis of pockets of vulnerability across all regions. (29th January)

A diverging China macro narrative

The latest monthly refresh of the China Activity Proxy highlights the divergence between the upbeat macro story told by official GDP data and the less optimistic picture painted by our proprietary growth measure. The CAP offers more than 25 years of headline and sectoral data mapped against official numbers, providing a more accurate and timely read of activity in the world's second largest economy. (28th January)

Staying ahead of a complex macro story

In a world of rising trade tensions, cooling growth, and divergent inflation outlooks, our Central Bank Hub and Key Forecasts dashboard are crucial resources in making sure you’re up to with our latest economic and market forecasts. (24th January)

Demographic challenges made interactive

As population growth has played a decisive role in the success of economies, so ageing workforces now pose an acute challenge across the developed and emerging worlds. This interactive dashboard walks CE Advance subscribers through the challenges, the potential solutions and which countries we think will be the winners and losers from this momentous demographic shift. (17^th January)

The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025

The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This is one highlight from our updated Global Fracturing database, which allows clients to investigate how geopolitical shifts are playing out in terms of the breakdown of global output, trade and investment between geopolitical rivals, and the composition of global financial markets. Users can also download the underlying data from the database. (17^th January)

What does the rise in gilt yields mean for the UK Chancellor?

Long-dated gilt yields have hit multi-decade highs and, if sustained, could put the Chancellor on course to break her fiscal rule by £1.4bn. This means there is a real chance she will be forced to unveil more tax rises and/or spending restraint this year. Of course, there is still plenty of time for things to change between now and when the OBR next updates its forecast on 26^th March. We will regularly update our Fiscal Headroom Monitor to estimate if and by how much the fiscal rules will be broken. (10^th January)