Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule inches closer, Chile’s bank risks The strong support for Brazil’s new fiscal framework in a vote in the lower house this week suggests that there’s more political appetite for austerity than we had anticipated. And, taken together... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE has to work harder to quash inflation It’s become clearer that domestic inflation isn’t going to fall while economic activity is strengthening. As such, we now think that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates further, from... 26th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Weak start to Q2, hawkish BoK, Vietnam rate cut Recent national accounts data confirmed that most economies struggled in the first quarter of the year. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Q2 is shaping up to be another weak quarter. Me... 26th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Could May euro-zone inflation move the dial on rate expectations? 1685620800 As the stagflationary drumbeats get louder, will flash May HICP for the euro-zone be the next inflation release to spook markets?
Capital Daily Revising up our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield Higher risk premia on sterling-denominated assets, which coincided with last September’s disastrous “mini-budget”, have typically long since evaporated. The recent increase in Gilt yields – to levels... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeps eyes firmly focussed on inflation The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hiked interest rates by 50bp, to 8.25%, today on the back of policymakers’ growing concerns about the inflationary impact of persistent power cuts. For now, we... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book Latest EM elections raise policy risks The results of elections in major EMs over the past month have increased macroeconomic policy risks. Most notably in Turkey, President Erdogan now has the edge ahead of a second-round presidential... 25th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly BCT independence, Saudi-OPEC+, Egypt reforms The independence of Tunisia’s central bank has come under threat this week, which will only diminish any remaining hopes that the country’s IMF deal will be approved. Elsewhere, comments from Saudi... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2023) The surprise fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.1% y/y in the first half of May, coming alongside this week’s approval of the new fiscal framework in the lower house of congress, suggests that the... 25th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s imbalanced recovery can’t be sustained Colombia’s very strong post-pandemic recovery has come at the expense of a build-up of large macroeconomic imbalances and a period of below-trend growth is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Hawkish BoK, but early cuts still possible The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%) for a third consecutive meeting, and pushed back against the possibility of early interest rate cuts. However, with inflation falling back... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Singapore set to struggle in 2023 Singapore’s economy is being hit hard by multi-decade high interest rates and elevated inflation. And with external demand set to weaken, we expect growth to be much weaker than consensus projections... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
