Global Economics Update Should we believe central banks’ interest rate forecasts? When central bankers give guidance on likely interest rates changes in the next month or two, it’s probably best to believe them. But experience shows that banks’ own interest rate forecasts are very... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Answering your questions on Mexico We held an online briefing yesterday on Mexico’s economy and how it may be impacted by the Trump administration. (Listen to the on-demand recording here.) This Update answers some the key questions... 23rd January 2025 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Slow and steady cuts by the ECB The ECB looks set to cut its deposit rate from 3.00% to 2.75% next week and signal that further reductions are likely. But it will stop short of giving any precise guidance about the timing and scale... 23rd January 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2025) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 3.8% y/y, means that Banxico is likely to continue its easing cycle next month. But with the Fed set to pause its pause its cutting cycle... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The 250bp interest rate cut by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT), to 47.50%, was accompanied by cautious language in the statement. But given signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing, we think... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank prepares the ground for rate cuts Today’s policy announcement confirms that Norges Bank is likely to start cutting interest rates at its meeting in March, almost certainly with a 25bp reduction to 4.25%. We think it will then loosen... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2025) Today’s policy announcement confirms that Norges Bank is likely to start cutting interest rates at its meeting in March. We think it will then loosen monetary policy a little more quickly than its... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada Watch: Tariff uncertainty favours 25bp cut The recent pick-up in GDP growth and core inflation pressures could justify a pause from the Bank of Canada next week but, with tariffs clouding the economic outlook, we judge that the Governing... 22nd January 2025 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Fed to pause easing cycle We expect the strength of the economy and uncertainty over immigration and trade policy to prompt the Fed to pause its easing cycle at next week’s FOMC meeting, despite recent improvements in the near... 22nd January 2025 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (January 2025) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economy set for a strong rebound Egypt’s economy has struggled over the past year due to the effects of a weak pound, high inflation, and tighter fiscal and monetary policy, but there have been signs recently that a recovery is... 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec' 24) The smaller-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.0% y/y, in November, combined with the recent recovery in the rand, supports our view that the SARB can continue with its... 22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Higher bond yields not a threat to fiscal health yet We aren’t overly worried about the impact of higher bond yields on Japan’s public finances because rising interest rates are a direct consequence of higher inflation. With the effective interest rate... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show steady improvement The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys support our view that GDP growth will pick-up this quarter and suggest there are some upside risks to our forecast for another 75bp of... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
