Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Consumer Prices (Nov.)

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

What to make of the RBNZ’s new framework

We doubt that the removal of the RBNZ’s employment objective would make much difference to economic outcomes, but forcing the Bank to achieve its inflation target within too short a period of time...

Capital Daily

Yields in the US and Japan may diverge

The global bond rally faced a setback today after the US employment report was released. But we think that yields will resume their downward march before long in most places, including the US. One...

US Economics Weekly

Markets call the Fed's bluff on higher for longer

The Fed may not be quite ready to abandon its tightening bias at this week’s FOMC meeting, but the markets are no longer buying its “higher for longer” mantra. The main factor behind the shift in...

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank risks doing more harm than good

The Bank of Canada this week reiterated that strong immigration is putting upward pressure on inflation because housing supply is failing to keep up. Yet the Bank surely can’t be oblivious to the...

Africa Economics Weekly

CBK supports the shilling, SA current account

The Kenyan central bank’s surprise 200bp interest rate hike, to 12.50%, on Tuesday was clearly aimed at shoring up the currency. There are other reasons to think that pressure on the shilling will...

UK Economics Weekly

Tide turning to earlier rate cuts, but BoE to cut last

Investors now think the first interest rate cut will happen in June next year instead of August, with an 80% chance of a cut by May. Our forecast is that the Bank of England won’t cut interest rates...

Europe Economics Weekly

Why we’ve changed our ECB view

We had been expecting next Thursday’s ECB meeting to be another non-event, but it now looks likely to provide some idea of how soon and how fast policymakers are willing to start cutting interest...

India Economics Weekly

Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook

The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that...

India Economics Update

RBI in no rush to loosen policy

The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. Against a backdrop of robust economic growth and a renewed rise in food inflation, we doubt the...

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Dec.)

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ sending further signals that negative rates will end

Data released this week showed that inflation fell sharply in Tokyo while wage growth remains well below the levels the BoJ considers necessary for meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis...

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Rate cuts will be in play sooner than most expect

The RBA's revised Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy has been interpreted as hawkish by some commentators. However, our view is that the new statement doesn't meaningfully alter the RBA's...

Canada Economic Outlook

Further falls in GDP to trigger interest rate cuts

Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all next year. Weak growth and a return in inflation to the 2% target will leave scope for the Bank of...

BoE Watch

BoE unlikely to fuel market rate cut expectations

With the Bank of England almost certain to keep interest rates at 5.25% for the third policy meeting in a row on Thursday 14th December, the focus will be on whether the Bank provides any signals of...