Africa Economic Outlook

SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade

The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most...

15th December 2025 · 19 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Solid growth, easing cycles drawing to a close

The economic outlook across much of Asia has improved recently, prompting modest upward revisions to our 2026 GDP growth forecasts. Strong demand for AI-related products will continue to lift exports...

15th December 2025 · 25 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov. 25)

The sharp decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 14.5% y/y last month strengthens our view that the central bank will quickly restart its easing cycle when it next meets in the new year.

15th December 2025 · 2 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Growth to stay soft as deflation persists

Fiscal support and a ramp-up in AI investment will prevent a sharp slowdown in China’s economy, but we expect growth to remain weak in 2026. Deflation and overcapacity will persist and China’s...

15th December 2025 · 17 mins read

UK Economic Outlook

The year that inflation falls back to 2%

After enduring a higher inflation rate than most of its peers for the bulk of the past five years, we think that 2026 will be the year that inflation in the UK falls back to the 2.0% target. That will...

15th December 2025 · 17 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on

Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will...

15th December 2025 · 25 mins read

Japan Economics Update

BoJ set to hike further as business conditions strengthen

The Q4 Tankan Survey struck all the right notes from the Bank of Japan’s perspective. It showed that business conditions are improving, profit margins remain elevated, and that firms are upbeat about...

15th December 2025 · 3 mins read

US Economics Weekly

ICT services still riding the AI boom

The Quarterly Services Survey report, released to little fanfare this Thursday, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven again by AI-related double-digit...

12th December 2025 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank of Canada unmoved by positive jobs data

The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% this week, wrapping up a year in which it has cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp. Barring any shocks, the Bank appears comfortable keeping the...

12th December 2025 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenyan shilling, South Africa’s port deal

Kenya’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp earlier this week, to 9.00%, but the extent of further monetary loosening is likely to rest on what happens next with the shilling, which is...

12th December 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs

The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election...

12th December 2025 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Our forecasts in 2025 – Inflation miss, Bank Rate hit

At this time of year it is useful to look back at how your forecasts have done and to learn from any mistakes to improve your future forecasts. Both we and the consensus underestimated inflation again...

12th December 2025 · 10 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Tempering the optimism

Market moves over the past fortnight show that investors are becoming more optimistic about the euro-zone economy, but we are less bullish on the growth outlook. Meanwhile, the recent acceleration in...

12th December 2025 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Economy bigger than thought and poised to rebound

Rebased national accounts data released this week show that Japan’s nominal GDP is around 5% higher than previously estimated, which in turn implies that the ratio of public debt to GDP is lower. This...

12th December 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes?

There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement...

12th December 2025 · 8 mins read