Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to overreact to inflation resurgence We don't expect the Fed to overreact to the resurgence in its preferred PCE inflation measure given it partly reflects the outsized weighting of particular items and there is still plenty of... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Terms of trade boost, Copom: 25bp vs 50bp As net energy exporters, most major Latin American economies benefit on net from the renewed leg up in oil prices. As thing stand, we don't think the inflationary impact will stop Brazil's central... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict already hurting the UK economy The rises in petrol prices and mortgage rates show that the new stagflationary pressures we previously warned about due to the conflict in the Middle East have arrived. We think the Bank of England... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia: how will central banks respond to high energy prices? Pakistan and Sri Lanka are the two central banks in Asia most likely to raise rates if energy prices remain elevated for a prolonged period. In contrast, Taiwan and Korea will be in little hurry to... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hauser’s hawkishness heralds a hike In a podcast this week, RBA Deputy Governor made no bones about his view that the Bank needed to bolster its inflation-fighting credentials. His concerns that the Iran conflict could exacerbate price... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government cushioning blow from energy shock Japan’s government is capping gasoline prices at levels below last year’s average and is also releasing crude oil from stockpiles to prevent shortages. However, should crude oil prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on energy markets and the UK economy remains highly uncertain. As things stand, we suspect the most likely scenario is one in which the conflict comes to... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to stand pat amid oil market turmoil The Bank of Canada is all but certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week and will likely play down the risk that higher oil prices might warrant interest rate hikes. Nonetheless, if WTI... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as it waits for more clarity With the FOMC set to keep the fed funds target range between 3.50% and 3.75% next week, the focus will be on any changes to the policy statement and new economic projections. The most hawkish outcome... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. EM energy producers outside the Gulf will see a terms-of-trade... 12th March 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2026) Inflation in Brazil fell to 3.8% y/y in February which keeps an interest rate cut in play at next week’s meeting, despite the energy price shock. Much will depend on developments in the Middle East... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stress readiness to respond to energy shock The ECB is not going to respond to the jump in energy prices by raising interest rates next week. But we expect it to state that the upside risks to inflation have increased, implying that the chance... 12th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) opted to leave interest rates unchanged today, suggesting that – for now – it deems the effective 300bp of tightening delivered via the interest rate corridor sufficient... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
