Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2025) With the Bank growing increasingly concerned about downside risks to the economy, there is a good chance that it will cut rates further than we are currently anticipating this cycle. 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Loan Prime Rate (May 2025) Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) probably won’t be the last this year. But rate cuts are likely to remain modest as the PBOC appears to think they could... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) highlighted concerns with the uncertain political backdrop and recent pressure on the currency when leaving its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%. We now think... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Third time lucky for South Africa’s 2025 Budget? South Africa’s finance minister takes his third stab at delivering the 2025 Budget on Wednesday. Disputes within the ruling GNU seem to have been resolved but this may come at the cost of slippage on... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t claim victory in inflation fight just yet Although the RBA is almost certain to slash its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday, it will probably remain cautious about commiting to further policy easing. After all, business surveys... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will delay further tightening until October The truce reached between China and the US over the weekend is a clear positive for Japan’s economy. Even so, we suspect that weak economic activity coupled with an impending plunge in inflation will... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (May '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a... 15th May 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US yield curve could flatten further, despite Fed cuts We think the recent “bear flattening” of the US Treasury yield curve has a bit further to run. 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will only cut twice more this cycle With trimmed mean inflation entering the RBA’s target band for the first time since 2021, the Bank will almost certainly lower interest rates by another 25bp at next week’s meeting. However, amidst... 14th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: what are the leading indicators saying? The latest survey data out of Mexico have been woeful and, while high-frequency hard data suggest that activity hasn’t fared as badly as might have been feared, the bigger picture is that the economy... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2025) The jobs market weakened further in the face of April’s rise in payroll taxes and the national minimum wage. But with wage growth still stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range and energy prices set to drive up... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SSA fiscal slippage, SA reforms, Ghana inflation Leaders across Sub-Saharan Africa faced with fiscal strains are embracing tax reform rather than rises to maintain fiscal consolidation efforts, but we doubt that this will be sufficient to prevent... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
