Kenyan shilling, South Africa’s port deal

Kenya’s central bank cut interest rates by another 25bp earlier this week, to 9.00%, but the extent of further monetary loosening is likely to rest on what happens next with the shilling, which is starting to look a little overvalued. Elsewhere, South Africa is banking on increased private sector participation to help sustain recent improvements in the logistics sector – as it has done for energy. If successful, it would add another leg to the broader supply and demand side improvements seen already which support our above-consensus growth forecast for next year.