Africa Economics Weekly South Africa MTBPS, Nigeria’s inflation surprise South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s resilient economy to keep accelerating Nigeria’s economy picked up over the first half of the year and we think growth will accelerate into 2027-28, supported by rising oil production, recovering real incomes, and increasingly supportive... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 26) Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re optimistic relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region... 28th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia conflict, Nigeria cuts rates, SA hikes This week’s renewed fighting raises the risk of Ethiopia sliding back into civil war, threatening what had up to now looked like strong growth prospects. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s large 350bp rate cut... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa resilient but pockets of vulnerability remain Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re positive relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region... 25th September 2026 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Update More easing to follow CBN’s bumper rate cut The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) surprise decision to cut its policy rate by 350bp today, to 23.00%, underlines its confidence that the disinflation process will continue over the coming months... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s final rate cut, Nigeria and SA to hold rates The Angolan central bank's latest rate cut delivered this week is likely to be its last for some time. Next week, we expect the Central Bank of Nigeria to hold at 26.50%, as inflation remains too high... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 15.4% y/y in August, which keeps the door ajar for a rate cut next week. But we think credibility concerns will win out, and the MPC will keep rates... 15th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria & Angola pick up, S. Africa Q2 data to disappoint The strength of the Q2 GDP figures out of Nigeria and Angola this week has prompted us to revise up our 2026 growth forecasts for both economies. But while Nigeria’s economy is likely to strengthen... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rally won’t last, Strong SA Data, Zambia Inflation High commodity prices have continued to support the Nigerian naira, but we don’t think this will continue. For the Zambian kwacha, heightened post-election political uncertainty is a key risk that... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think it will accelerate from here. Inflation held steady or slowed, including in Nigeria and South Africa... 24th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul. 26) The fall in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate from 15.9% in June to a lower-than-expected 15.4% y/y in July, suggest that the door is open to the resumption of the monetary easing cycle next month. 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA extended, Kenya and Uganda hold rates The African Growth and Opportunity Act took another step towards being extended this week, providing further evidence that Africa is emerging from the latest US trade actions relatively unscathed... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can Africa move up the commodity value chain? Governments in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly turning to interventionist measures to boost refining of commodities. But many of the conditions to make this a success, including transport... 11th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana soft inflation, Nigeria’s military get spending boost Ghana’s surprisingly soft inflation print for July suggests that another rate cut is possible, but robust growth and the BoG’s drive to build its credibility and stabilise the cedi mean we still think... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: lower US tariffs, but China will be the key partner Sub-Saharan Africa has come out of the latest round of US tariffs in a better position relative both to last year and to many other EMs. That will provide opportunities for some countries. But even so... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
