Africa Economics Weekly SARB can resist rate hikes, Nigeria reshuffle, E. Africa fuel This week’s latest comments from SARB Governor Kganyago reaffirmed the growing risks of interest rate hikes. For now, though, a high policy rate and a strong external position are reasons we think... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya holds rates, Nigeria insecurity worsening The energy price shock prompted the Central Bank of Kenya to halt its easing cycle this week and, while policymakers sound relatively sanguine, they appear to be underestimating the risks from growing... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade & budget data, SSA activity holds up Trade and budget data released this week suggest that South Africa headed into the energy price shock in decent shape. But we are concerned about the risks that a longer war could pose to the fiscal... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil gains lift Angola and Nigeria, but Mozambique strained The surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict will boost incomes in Angola and Nigeria and upcoming elections and persistent spending pressures mean that much of the windfall is likely to... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fuel prices, SARB watching second-round effects African government’s responses to rising fuel prices are falling into two camps: those passing higher costs directly to consumers and those absorbing them. Kenya and Ethiopia are doing the latter but... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SSA fuel prices, inflation and the policy response Sub-Saharan Africa looks better placed to face the current energy shock than the last one in 2022. But the region is still vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East via the impact on fuel supplies... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Easing sovereign debt risks bolster the region’s resilience The shock from the conflict in the Middle East has only had a modest impact on government borrowing costs in Africa, reflecting a marked improvement in sovereign risk profiles in the last few years... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly How will the Middle East conflict affect Africa The jump in global energy prices on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, if sustained, will provide a windfall for Africa’s key oil producers, such as Nigeria and Angola. We suspect most of... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update The naira’s rally is probably over The Nigerian naira has been one of the strongest performing EM currencies since the start of the year, helped by an improved balance of payments position. But the naira’s rally is starting to hurt... 26th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 26) Sub-Saharan Africa is entering one of its best periods of growth since the 2010s, propelled by better terms of trade, low inflation and loose monetary policy. Our forecasts for most countries –... 24th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa's 2026 Budget? South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present the 2026 Budget next week against an improving fiscal backdrop, creating scope for another fiscal giveaway. However, a looser fiscal... 20th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan. 26) The smaller than expected fall in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 15.1% y/y in January is unlikely to worry policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria given that core price pressures continued... 16th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ramaphosa's SONA, CBN steps up FX liquidity South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation address to outline bold plans to tackle crime and improve infrastructure, but delivering on this will be challenging given the... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation backdrop to prompt more rate cuts in SSA Inflation is subdued or falling across Sub-Saharan Africa, a trend which we think has further to run over the course of 2026. Monetary stances are generally tight, which provides policymakers with... 4th February 2026 · 5 mins read
