Hawkish holds in Ghana & Nigeria, dovish hold in South Africa

The decisions by central banks in Nigeria and Ghana to hold interest rates (rather than cut) suggests that policymakers in both countries are focusing on burnishing their inflation-fighting credentials. The South African Reserve Bank also kept interest rates unchanged this week, but that came against a backdrop in which hikes seemed likely. The upshot is that we think the SARB’s tightening cycle is probably over and, so long as the energy crisis fades, interest rates will probably come down by more than most expect in 2027.