South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading tailwinds for revenues and rising political risks will test this resolve. Elsewhere, if downside inflation surprises continue in Nigeria, the case for a faster pace of interest rate cuts will strengthen. In contrast, continued currency pressures in Uganda suggests that this week’s 225bp hike is unlikely to be the last of this tightening cycle.
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