Africa Economics Weekly SA industry weakness, Botswana ups De Beers stake Data from South Africa’s industrial sector released this week were, once again, terrible. Some of the weakness reflects the impact of the energy shock, but it is also due to structural weakness in key... 13th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC leadership contest the next test after bruising locals The African National Congress’s (ANC's) heavy losses in South Africa’s local elections are unlikely to destabilise the Government of National Unity in the near-term, which should reassure investors... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria borrowing more, South Africa reforms Nigeria's ambitious borrowing plans suggest that the oil windfall (and more) will be spent, leaving the public finances vulnerable to a fall in oil prices and slower nominal GDP growth. Meanwhile... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA fiscal policy gains, Ghana mineral export ban South Africa’s markets welcomed this week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), affirming our view that continued fiscal discipline and higher infrastructure spending are brightening the... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa MTBPS, Nigeria’s inflation surprise South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s conundrum, regional rating agency Contained inflation and higher FX reserves have given Kenya's central bank a buffer to avoid hiking interest rates for now, but we still think the shilling will eventually need to be devalued and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA bond sell-off, Zambia monetary easing now over South Africa has not been immune to the global bond sell-off, but yields on local currency government debt remain low by post-pandemic standards, and we believe improving fiscal fundamentals and SARB... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia conflict, Nigeria cuts rates, SA hikes This week’s renewed fighting raises the risk of Ethiopia sliding back into civil war, threatening what had up to now looked like strong growth prospects. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s large 350bp rate cut... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s final rate cut, Nigeria and SA to hold rates The Angolan central bank's latest rate cut delivered this week is likely to be its last for some time. Next week, we expect the Central Bank of Nigeria to hold at 26.50%, as inflation remains too high... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account deteriorates, Senegal’s debt problem Q2 data this week showed the energy shock is putting South Africa’s current account position under strain, and with oil prices back above $100pb, we expect that external pressure to persist in the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria & Angola pick up, S. Africa Q2 data to disappoint The strength of the Q2 GDP figures out of Nigeria and Angola this week has prompted us to revise up our 2026 growth forecasts for both economies. But while Nigeria’s economy is likely to strengthen... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rally won’t last, Strong SA Data, Zambia Inflation High commodity prices have continued to support the Nigerian naira, but we don’t think this will continue. For the Zambian kwacha, heightened post-election political uncertainty is a key risk that... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA food inflation slump, Ethiopia FX, Zambia election The fall in South African inflation in July is likely to be followed by a pick-up in the coming months due to unfavourable base effects. But underlying inflation pressures, as well as food inflation... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA extended, Kenya and Uganda hold rates The African Growth and Opportunity Act took another step towards being extended this week, providing further evidence that Africa is emerging from the latest US trade actions relatively unscathed... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana soft inflation, Nigeria’s military get spending boost Ghana’s surprisingly soft inflation print for July suggests that another rate cut is possible, but robust growth and the BoG’s drive to build its credibility and stabilise the cedi mean we still think... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana and South Africa’s fiscal discipline paying off Ghana's reforms under its IMF program, which finished this week, have given the government space to loosen policy to support growth. Fiscal discipline is also paying off in South Africa, where the... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
