SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building

The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising inflation. While World Bank support will provide some relief, a new IMF programme would also be beneficial. But this appears out of reach given the authorities’ firm grip on the currency and the lack of appetite for fiscal consolidation.