Canada Economics Weekly Up-and-down week foreshadows CUSMA renegotiation A week of political drama, much of it emanating from south of the border, provides useful insight into how we can expect the CUSMA renegotiation to unfold. 13th February 2026 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly US trade deal looking more palatable The fact sheet for the India-US trade deal was published at the start of this week, but by Wednesday it had been quietly revised. Two key changes stand out and improve the deal’s economic viability... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Can China’s trade surplus rise further? China’s goods trade surplus can’t increase indefinitely. But there’s little sign that policy shifts – either within China or in its trading partners – will prevent the surplus from widening in the... 12th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2026) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades... 11th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Poland’s “Goldilocks” conditions last? Poland’s economy is currently exhibiting features considered characteristic of a “Goldilocks economy” – solid GDP growth, inflation close to target, as well as a current account near balance. And we... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s current account deficit will continue to narrow The improvement in Egypt’s external competitiveness since the policy shift two years ago has supported a narrowing of the current account deficit and we think this has further to run, especially if... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s DA leadership battle, AGOA is extended While the South African Democratic Alliance's change in leadership in April is unlikely to affect the stability of the Government of National Unity, there are key risks ahead including municipal... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran talks, Qatar’s LNG push, Saudi opens up The US and Iran enter negotiations tomorrow, but relations between the two are fragile and there's a high risk that talks break down, which could result in fresh US military strikes on Iran. Elsewhere... 5th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rebalancing process enters a more difficult phase The latest data out of Turkey have reinforced our view that the rebalancing process is becoming more challenging. At the heart of the problem is excessively strong domestic demand and the tension... 4th February 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The data published since the start of the year suggest economic activity and price pressures have strengthened. But we still expect annual GDP growth to slow and the weak labour market to weigh on... 2nd February 2026 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan 26) China’s growth slowed in December, with the economy expanding by just 3.1% in 2025. Export growth and fiscal support will continue to provide a significant (albeit smaller) prop to the economy over... 30th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique’s gas project, South Africa auto tariffs Mozambique announced that construction on its Cabo Delgado gas mega-project will restart, but the billions of dollars in revenue that it will bring are some years away, keeping crisis risks high in... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh faces an uphill battle at the Fed There was “broad support” among the FOMC to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at between 3.50% and 3.75% at this week’s meeting. Non-voting participants, according to Chair Jerome Powell... 30th January 2026 · 6 mins read
