Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Apr. 26) Most of the recent strength in exports reflects soaring export prices, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz resulted in a record plunge in crude oil imports. T 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update China’s electric vehicle exports shift up a gear in April While China’s solar panel and lithium-ion battery exports fell back from record highs in April, the surge in battery electric vehicle exports meant that China’s overall green tech exports remained... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs have hit euro-zone exports The front-running of US tariffs gave a small boost to euro-zone exports and GDP last year. But now that the dust is settling, euro-zone exports to the US are significantly lower than they were before... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Weak naira providing little boost to industry The expansion of Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity has helped to boost the current account surplus and allowed the central bank to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves. But the sharp weakening of... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Rate hike would provide only brief respite for rupiah The Indonesian rupiah has continued to slide over the past week and, while we think intervention in the foreign exchange market will remain Bank Indonesia’s primary course of action to prop up the... 18th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus The impact of the China shock on Japan’s economy Japan has weathered the China shock well so far, largely because the sharp weakening of the yen has kept Japanese exports competitive. However, the exchange rate is unlikely to keep weakening rapidly... 18th May 2026 · 17 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2026) Domestic headwinds look to have intensified last month, especially when it comes to construction activity. But with external demand picking up and the electronics sector in an upswing, we still think... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Trump-Xi summit: Truce continues, substance lacking While we are still waiting for full details on what was agreed at the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, it seems mostly just to have cemented the existing trade truce. This should ensure near... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Don’t take a deal at face value, AI investment ramps up A key outcome of President Trump’s previous trip to China in 2017 was a package of “trade and investment deals” that the White House valued at more than $250bn. But the bulk of these deals never... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone less reliant on fossil fuels than in 2022 The euro-zone’s declining reliance on fossil fuels – driven by lower overall energy demand and a shift towards renewables – means that the economy is becoming less sensitive to higher fossil fuel... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Dangote refinery helping Nigeria weather supply shock The Dangote oil refinery has materially improved Nigeria’s energy security, leaving it better insulated from oil price shocks than before. Nigeria is not immune from the inflationary pressures from... 13th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Iran war may help rather than hurt China’s growth Despite high global energy prices, China’s economy is stronger now than at the start of the year. An AI-related boost to investment and electronics exports is playing a role. But China has also... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI averages $80pb over the second half of the year. This will boost GDP growth slightly and keep headline inflation above 2.5% in the coming months. But the backdrop of weak... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Terms of trade boost giving Brazil a lift The data for March and April seem to confirm that Brazil’s economy is one of the few economies benefitting from the energy price shock. As things stand, the risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 1.5%... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
