Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Moving towards de-escalation?, Egypt‘s fuel-saving steps The Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point this time last week and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de... 26th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines: unpacking the hit from the Iran war The state of emergency now in place in the Philippines gives the government powers to address the most acute strains in access to essential inputs, but it won’t prevent an economic shock. The central... 26th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (March 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing the China shock for the euro-zone The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. Indeed, euro-zone imports from China have... 23rd March 2026 (Updated 30th March 2026) · 16 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q4 2025) Chile’s economy ended last year on a strong footing, with GDP rising by 0.6% q/q, but the energy price spike and fiscal tightening planned under President Kast will cause the economy to weaken in the... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: energy shock adds to currency, sovereign risks Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the... 18th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy shortages rippling through Australian supply chains With supplies of crude oil from the Gulf dwindling, local prices of petroleum products imported from the Asia-Pacific region have already risen more sharply than movements in crude oil prices would... 16th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Terms of trade boost, Copom: 25bp vs 50bp As net energy exporters, most major Latin American economies benefit on net from the renewed leg up in oil prices. As thing stand, we don't think the inflationary impact will stop Brazil's central... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Gulf remittance risk for Asia A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could hit remittance flows as worsening economic prospects in the Gulf weighed on demand for migrant workers. A collapse in remittances seems unlikely. But any... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm: net beneficiaries from the energy price shock Major Latin American economies are seen as potential beneficiaries of higher energy prices, reflecting in large part their stronger net energy export positions. This Update summarises the key... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2026) Gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment were once again the main drivers behind moves in the trade deficit in January, while limited revisions to preceding months’ figures suggest little change to... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jan. 2026) The plunge in exports in January, together with the large decline in wholesale sales volumes, points to downside risks to the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged at the start of the year. If so... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Policy response leaves Egypt better placed to weather war Egypt hasn’t been involved directly in the conflict in the Middle East but it is one of the most vulnerable EMs to the indirect effects, especially higher energy prices and tighter global financial... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock tests Turkey’s macro stability Turkey’s economy is better placed to face the current energy price shock than it was in 2022, but it is still among the more vulnerable EMs. A temporary price spike will only have a modest effect on... 11th March 2026 · 5 mins read
