Chief Economist's Note Global imbalances: Back in focus, but in a different world While financial markets have swung on the apparent de-escalation and re-escalation of the Iran war, the bigger structural story is quietly reasserting itself: global imbalances are back, and were a... 21st April 2026
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2026) The energy shock will knock around 0.5%-pts off India’s GDP growth this year and push headline inflation to a peak of close to 6%. But we think the RBI will refrain from raising interest rates unless... 21st April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: dollar peg not at risk Reports that the UAE is seeking a currency swap line from the US have sparked concerns about the damage to country’s external position from the war. Lower energy exports, disruption to travel and... 20th April 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export dependence deepens, labour market softens The sectoral breakdown of GDP released today shows that industry outperformed last quarter, with much of the Q1 acceleration driven by strong external demand. But industry is less labour intensive... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Middle East turmoil hitting India’s trade The narrowing in India's goods trade deficit in March is largely a result of the Middle East conflict. Energy imports from the Gulf have collapsed, with an increase in oil shipments from Russia... 17th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2026) The war in Iran will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. Overall, though, so long as the conflict ends relatively soon in line with our... 16th April 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How could non-energy shortages affect supply chains? In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are... 16th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Many major Latin American economies have received a terms-of-trade boost from the... 16th April 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update US blockade will cut off Iran’s financial lifeline The war hasn’t caused the severe balance of payments strains in Iran that might have been expected, reflecting Iran’s continued ability to export hydrocarbons, the sharp rise in global energy prices... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Initial war hit to world trade appears small After a strong start to the year, the early signs are that disruptions from the Iran war did not deal a heavy blow to world trade in March. In other trade developments, China continues to gain global... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Mar. 2026) Exports slowed last month and fell short of expectations, but this reflects seasonal distortions. For Q1 as a whole, export growth rose to its highest level in four years. Despite the energy price... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High energy prices a double-edged sword Latin America as a whole is a net beneficiary from higher energy prices, but the terms of trade boost is limited (or in Mexico’s case more than offset) by a lack of domestic refining capacity. The... 13th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly USTR’s CUSMA guarantee will do little to settle nerves US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's comments this week confirm that the Trump administration will not elect to renew CUSMA on July 1st, raising uncertainty over when a new trade framework will be... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Strong trade data, inflation jump, Peru votes The early trade data for March suggests that Brazil's economy is, on net, benefitting from the energy price shock and that Chile's rising energy import bill is being offset by strong exports... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
