Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (April 25) With US tariffs weighing on Japanese exports, net trade will continue to act as a drag on activity in the near term. 21st May 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update No sign of a tariff hit to China’s green exports in April Despite the jump in US tariffs this year, China’s exports of the “New Three” reached a record high in April. This was mainly driven by increased exports to non-US markets, such as the EU. Looking... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Not such a hurry after all While Donald Trump still sounds bullish on the chances of a trade deal with India, India’s government has signalled this week that the US will have to give some ground too. Meanwhile, although tariffs... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the EU at back of the queue for a trade “deal”? We suspect that the US and EU will reach an agreement to avert the 20% baseline US tariff which is scheduled to come into effect on 9th July - but we doubt that such an agreement is imminent... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Why the tariff truce hasn’t altered our growth forecasts The scale of this week's tariff de-escalation was a bit larger than we had expected. But most of the rollback had already been factored into our forecasts. And while the threat from tariffs has... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s uneasy trade countdown With just over 50 days left until the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs expire, most countries in Asia appear to be making only slow progress on agreeing trade deals with the US. While many... 16th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will delay further tightening until October The truce reached between China and the US over the weekend is a clear positive for Japan’s economy. Even so, we suspect that weak economic activity coupled with an impending plunge in inflation will... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 11th June 2025) · 0 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: The UK’s future in Europe We’re resending our analysis of what the UK-EU reset means for the UK economy and, what it means for the UK’s future in Europe, ahead of today’s UK-EU summit in London. While the UK-EU reset will... 12th May 2025 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
