China Economics Update China trip notes – AI & green tech underpin optimism We spent last week visiting clients in Taipei, Beijing and Shanghai. There were some concerns about events in the Middle East and the wider external environment. But the overall mood was relatively... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2026) The RatingDog Services PMI came in stronger than expected, diverging from its official counterpart. The average of the two was unchanged from March, however. And given the weakness in the construction... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Iran hold out? The US blockade has cut Iran’s financial lifeline and strains are growing in its balance of payments. Estimates of Iran’s accessible FX reserves suggest that these cover no more than three months’ of... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom? 12th May 2026, 9:00AM BST China is widely seen as a key “winner” of the Iran conflict–driven energy shock, thanks in part to its dominance in green tech manufacturing. But how big is the upside?
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Industry-driven recovery continues Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s growth accelerated last month, with higher oil prices doing little to dampen industrial activity. Indeed, over Q1 as a whole, China’s economy expanded at... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Domestic impact of higher oil prices remains limited The war in Iran seems to have had limited impact on China's economy so far. The government has insulated end-users from much of the price shock - indeed, it cut retail prices this week - and the... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly USMCA, Kast’s fiscal plans, BCB to cut rates Comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week suggest seem to have dashed Mexico’s hopes of removing tariffs on autos, exports of which have been struggling. There are also... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly AI revolution still largely bypassing Japan The external trade data for March showed that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has started to reduce energy inflows from the Middle East. But the more striking development is the recent... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Higher gasoline prices will weigh moderately on consumption, but there are signs that investment will broaden out beyond AI-related spending. We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% this year and next... 23rd April 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Stalemate, swap lines and slumps Prospects for a swift end to the Iran war were dented this week as divisions within the Iranian regime hinder Tehran’s efforts to put forward a coherent, unified position in negotiations. And as a... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Vaca Muerta fuels energy turnaround The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Surge in green tech demand to support exports March trade data show that higher oil prices have already driven up demand for China’s green tech exports. And our analysis suggests that stronger NEV demand could see the auto sector alone add at... 21st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update China’s green tech exports boosted by Iran conflict China’s green technology exports reached a record high in March on the back of the sharp rise in global fossil fuel prices, and we think that the energy shock will continue to boost foreign demand for... 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
