We are not worried by the downward revision to first-quarter GDP data for the euro-zone because it was entirely due to a slump in Ireland, whose national accounts data are notoriously volatile. However, we do think economic growth in the wider euro-zone will stall in Q2. Meanwhile, we suspect that the EU will ratify last year’s trade agreement with the US before long in order to guard against the risk of a further big rise in tariff rates.
We will be hosting an Online Drop-In ahead of the June ECB meeting, featuring a special briefing on how the latest energy shock is shaping discussions within the Governing Council. The session will take place at 10:00 ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday, 9 June. Register here
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