UK Economics Weekly

High migration, but low labour force

The most striking thing about the record rise in net migration in the year to June 2022 is that it has not prevented the decline in the labour force. Without the rise in net migration, the labour...

UK Economics Update

BoE losses add pressure on the public finances

The Treasury has started to make payments to the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to cover the losses it has racked up because of the Bank of England’s gilt purchases. While this won’t...

Euro-zone Rapid Response

ECB Minutes (Oct.)

Euro-zone Data Response

German Ifo Survey (Nov.)

The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4.

Euro-zone Rapid Response

German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November)

UK Housing Market Update

BTL investors face severe financial squeeze

The record-low yields on rental properties and fall in house prices we forecast imply poor returns for Buy-to-Let landlords over the next few years. Moreover, the jump in mortgage rates means a...

Euro-zone Economics Update

Euro-zone inflation is nearing its peak

We think that headline inflation in the euro-zone is nearing its peak and will begin to fall quite sharply early next year. But the core rate will probably peak a little later and decline more slowly...

Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Book

Emerging Europe: Capital values fall in most of CEE

Property yield rises stepped up in Q3, causing all-property capital values to fall on a quarterly basis in the CEE markets except for Bucharest. This was despite solid office and industrial rental...

Euro-zone Data Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November)

The flash PMIs for November add to the evidence that the economy will contract in Q4. The price indices suggest that inflation will soon peak, but they remain extremely high by past standards.

Euro-zone Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November)

Euro-zone Economics Update

Italy: budget hurdle cleared, but debt risks remain

Italy’s draft 2023 budget confirms that, for now, the new right-wing government is committed to fiscal responsibility. As a result, the risk of turbulence in BTP markets has fallen, but it remains...

Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Book

Scandinavia & Switzerland: Property yields jump

Prime property yields rose significantly in Q3. This caused a sharp slowdown in capital value growth, even though rental growth was solid in the Scandinavian office and industrial sectors. Stockholm...

Global Markets Update

We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields

Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as...