Europe Commercial Property Update Netherlands prime office rent performance to slow Low vacancy and limited new completions this year will see Rotterdam rent growth continue to outperform Amsterdam over 2025, before supply picks up substantially in 2026. That will bring rent growth... 18th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Hotter inflation will deter the Bank from cutting rates quicker We think the hotter-than-anticipated inflation figures will deter the Bank of England from speeding up the pace of interest rate cuts rather than cause it to slow down. That’s why we’re sticking to... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Politics holding back banking union Regulators will be pleased with the increase in the number of takeover bids in the European banking sector over the past couple of years as they would like the EU to have fewer but larger and more... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey’s return to easing, Trump’s threat to Putin US President Trump’s threat of 'secondary' tariffs on Russia - which would apply to countries buying energy from Russia - if followed through on, could exert a major squeeze on Russia’s fiscal... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: New sanctions on Russia fail to rock the oil market New sanctions on Russian oil from the US and Europe this week were met by a muted market reaction. This is a reflection of investors doubting President Trump will follow through with his threats, and... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trade data resilient despite difficult negotiations Trade data released this week suggest that exports from the EU and Switzerland have been quite resilient since the US imposed a 10% tariff on most products in April. Meanwhile, despite an increase in... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will lender confidence drive UK commercial property capital values up? The current narrow spread between property yields and financing costs, combined with bullish lender capital value expectations, might be seen as an indication that a credit cycle is brewing and... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycle The ECB looks set to leave rates unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting and the rate cut that we have pencilled in for September is far from a done deal. Inflation is back down to the ECB’s... 17th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal risks still simmering across CEE Measures of fiscal risk premia have generally eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but the region’s public debt dynamics remain a point of concern. Budget deficits... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to creep down in H2 Headline inflation in the euro-zone was at the 2% target in June, with the core rate a little higher. We forecast core inflation to decline to 2% by the end of the year, and if oil prices fall as we... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May/Jun. 2025) The fallout in the labour market from the hikes in National Insurance Contributions and the minimum wage is not as big as previously thought. Even so, as payroll employment is falling and wage growth... 17th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariff front-running continues to support EZ exports Euro-zone exports fell for a second successive month in May but there was evidence of continued front- running in sectors that have not yet been hit by tariffs. And even in sectors which have been hit... 16th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.4% in May to a 17-month high of 3.6% in June (consensus & BoE forecast 3.4%, CE 3.3%) may not prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates by 25... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Upward-only rent review ban in England and Wales would nudge commercial property yields up Experience from Ireland suggests that a ban on upward-only rent reviews will weigh on future rental growth and widen property yield spreads to risk-free rates. While the overall impact is unlikely to... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Low EU gas storage levels to push prices up this year European natural gas stores are low and efforts to refill them will support prices over the rest of this year. Further ahead, increased supply should bring prices down to a below consensus €25 per MWh... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The increase in euro-zone industrial production in May confirms that the sector has been resilient to US tariffs so far and that may remain the case in the near term if, as we expect, Trump’s threat... 15th July 2025 · 2 mins read
