Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Cautious optimism on inflation, little progress on peace The Turkish central bank’s latest inflation report showed large upward revisions to its inflation forecasts, but policymakers emphasised that the underlying disinflation process remains on track. We... 13th November 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The UK is less like the US than it looks Recent GDP and inflation data have looked similar in the UK and US, but the underlying picture differs, with private demand and labour market conditions stronger in the US. Even so, the UK’s more... 13th November 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The changing of Lagarde The track record of the two candidates for ECB President shows that Klaas Knot has historically been more hawkish, notwithstanding recent efforts to show his dovish side, while Pablo Hernández de Cos... 13th November 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3 2026) As expected, the second estimate confirmed that euro-zone GDP rose by 0.4% q/q in Q3, and 0.2% excluding Ireland. We think that the economy will expand at a similar pace in Q4 and in 2027. 13th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What’s behind the strength in euro-zone exports? The pick-up in euro-zone goods exports in the first half of this year was due to the waning of forces that had previously weighed on exports, together with continued increases in demand. But global... 12th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: higher defence spending hasn’t raised fiscal risks Israel has absorbed a large increase in defence spending without a destabilising effect on the public finances, thanks in part to offsetting tax increases and strong fiscal fundamentals prior to its... 12th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What history tells us about second-round effects in the EZ There have rarely been significant second-round effects from higher energy prices on wage growth in the euro-zone. And we think the conditions that gave rise to second-round effects in 2008 and 2022 –... 12th November 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 & Sep. 2026) The 0.7% q/q rise in real GDP in Q3 (CE, consensus & BoE 0.7%) and unexpectedly strong 0.2% m/m gain in September (CE and consensus 0.0%) suggests the economy has maintained more momentum than we... 12th November 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2026) October’s RICS housing survey suggests that high mortgage rates continued to weigh on house prices and supported rental demand. By increasing the chances that mortgage rates remain high for longer... 12th November 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 26) Property valuations worsened significantly in Q3 as the 10-year gilt yield rose to a 20-year high and property yields saw only a small rise. However, given our expectation that the 10-year gilt yield... 11th November 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey consistent with euro-zone capital values stalling The Q3 RICS survey suggests conditions in euro-zone commercial property markets have deteriorated on the back of higher interest rates and tighter credit conditions. Surveyors’ capital value... 11th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will a shift to the right threaten Spain’s outperformance? A coalition between the People’s Party and Vox, which seems to be the most likely outcome of Spain’s general election, would lead to tighter immigration policy. But any crackdown would probably be... 11th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The worst may be yet to come for AI stocks The AI correction in equities could have much further to run. 9th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (November 2026) The euro-zone economy slowed a little in Q3 and is likely to continue growing at a sluggish pace in Q4. The core economies are weaker than much of the “periphery” with France in a mild recession and... 6th November 2026 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE a hostage to geopolitics We still think the Bank of England will raise interest rates only once more, from 4.00% to 4.25% in February, or possibly in December. That is based on our forecast for energy prices to continue to... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What do the US midterms mean for Europe? The results of the US midterms this week will have been welcomed by European policymakers, not least because they reduce the risk of future tariff increases and could arguably lower policy uncertainty... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
