Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (July) The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold, at 6.50%, suggest policymakers are concerned about the inflationary impacts of upcoming... 8th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) We think the euro-zone economy will not grow at all in Q2 and Q3 as the first-quarter boost from tariff front-running will not be repeated. Looking through the tariff disruption, growth will be... 8th July 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Slower UK house price growth in 2025, bigger rebound in 2026 The continued weakness in the housing market over the first six months of this year and the cracking labour market means we now expect the recovery in house prices to start later and be slower. But... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook UK Outlook: Labour market cracking The falls in employment triggered by the Chancellor’s rises in National Insurance Contributions for employers and the minimum wage have increased our confidence that it is only a matter of time before... 7th July 2025 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The slightly more dovish communications accompanying the decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, and the easing in geopolitical risks, suggest that... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jun. 2025) The stagnation in the Halifax house price index in June suggests that the housing market remains slow to recover from both the rise in stamp duty on 1st April and the weak economy. While there are... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (June) Both headline and core inflation rose in June by much more than Riksbank officials had forecast at its meeting last month, supporting our view that the Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 2% for the... 7th July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The better-than-expected German industrial production figures for May are partly due to continued tariff front-running in the pharmaceuticals sector, but output in other sectors is also proving more... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: NBP delivers dovish surprise, could the BoI be next? The 25bp cut by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week caught many – but not us – off guard, and we think that two further interest rate cuts lie in store over the rest of this year. Meanwhile... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Could the euro’s strength prompt a July cut? With the euro going from strength to strength and energy prices having dropped back the case could arguably be made for the ECB to cut rates in July and some policymakers have sounded concerned about... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Market jitters increase the chances of further tax rises While this week's gilt-sterling sell-off was short-lived, it's left a gloomy cloud over the one-year anniversary of the government's election victory. If the Chancellor is going to continue to meet... 4th July 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jun. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the fourth consecutive month in June to 48.8, a six-month high. 4th July 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) The big 0.8% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices in June suggests that the housing market is still struggling to recover from both the stamp duty-induced lull and the weak economy. While some leading... 3rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices will continue to climb High income growth and immigration are likely to continue to drive increases in house prices in Spain over the coming years. Demand will be further boosted by the recent fall in mortgage interest... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deal or no deal, trade negotiations will continue Whatever transpires in EU-US trade talks next week – deal, no-deal or an extension – tensions over transatlantic trade relations are likely to persist throughout President Trump’s second... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: One year on – Is the government boosting growth? The government has implemented some good policies in its first year, but it has undermined the resulting one-off boost to real GDP in the coming years with a few missteps. And the possible permanent... 3rd July 2025 · 23 mins read
