UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) This special UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could... 26th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: from disinflation tailwind to inflation overshoot The rise in global energy prices will push inflation back above central bank’s targets across CEE economies this year and prevent further interest rates cuts for the foreseeable future. We’ve lowered... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update No need for SNB to respond to energy shock Higher energy prices will push headline inflation up in Switzerland this year, but we think that it will remain well within the SNB’s target range. So rather than raising interest rates as is... 26th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2026) The fall in the German Ifo BCI and the Composite PMI in March suggest that the renewed rise in energy prices could derail the tentative recovery in the German economy seen in recent months. We expect... 25th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2026) The economy entered the energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East with CPI inflation stuck at 3.0%. And based on our current working assumptions about oil and gas prices, we now... 25th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today, and we think the recent surge in global energy prices has effectively closed the door on the easing cycle for now. Interest... 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Alternative real estate sectors set to gain more ground In an environment of relatively weak economic growth, alternative sectors stand to benefit from a lower reliance on cyclical drivers, and support from structural trends that will drive long-term... 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Mar. 2026) March’s flash PMIs show that the conflict in the Middle East is already going a long way to boosting inflation and extinguishing GDP growth. And this is just the start. 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2026) March’s euro-zone PMI survey shows that higher energy costs are weighing on demand and causing input prices to rise rapidly. 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing the China shock for the euro-zone The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. We expect the EU to impose more trade defence... 23rd March 2026 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Market pricing for many rate hikes conflicts with jobs outlook While there are plausible scenarios in which the Bank of England hikes interest rates in response to the leap in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the jumps in market rate... 20th March 2026 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes now the “base case” In light of this week’s further rise in energy prices and damage to Qatar’s energy infrastructure we have revised our euro-zone forecasts. In our new “base case” the ECB hikes rates three times this... 20th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public finances (Feb. 2026) February’s public finances figures showed that the fiscal position was worse than expected even before the full impact of the surge in energy prices is felt. As a result, we doubt there is scope for a... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The future might not be so bad for government bonds While the conflict in the Middle East could evolve in myriad ways, we think government bonds would typically recover in our ‘baseline’ scenario but struggle in our ‘adverse’ one. That largely reflects... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
