Europe Economics Update Rising EV exports won’t offset falling ICE sales The euro-zone’s exports of cars have fallen dramatically since 2017. This loss is driven by internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas exports of electric vehicles (EVs) are rising rapidly. Even if... 20th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2026) Property markets were relatively unaffected by the Iran war in Q2, with investment activity strengthening and property yields rising only modestly. Assuming the Strait of Hormuz is not disrupted for a... 20th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Franc to rally when AI bubble bursts The bursting of the AI bubble that we suspect will happen next year, and the resulting pick-up in safe-haven demand, would most likely cause the franc to appreciate against the euro. 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Aug. 26) Higher risk-free interest rates and uncertainty from the war in Iran are now beginning to push up property yields and all-property capital value growth has fallen to zero. But we still think the 10... 19th August 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Deterioration in sentiment largely reversed in Q2 RICS survey The Q2 RICS survey suggests surveyors are now less pessimistic about the Iran war’s impact on European commercial property markets. And while credit conditions deteriorated further, other survey... 19th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone headline inflation will soon rise to 3.5% The indirect effects of higher energy prices on core inflation in the euro-zone have been close to non-existent so far, but they are likely to build in the second half of the year. If energy prices... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: food deflation benefits won’t last Falls in food prices in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year have helped to keep headline inflation rates in check during the energy shock, but this will reverse before long. Global agricultural... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2026) CPI inflation rose from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July (consensus forecast 2.9%, BoE & CE 2.8%) and the lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift it to around 3.5% later this year. But as... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about the bond market sell-off The recent bond market sell-off appears to reflect investors demanding greater compensation for fiscal, geopolitical and policy uncertainty. We expect this shift to prove relatively persistent. The... 18th August 2026 · 16 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) We expect the recent softening in house price growth to continue over the rest of this year as mortgage rates fall only gradually. In fact, the lack of a sustained recovery in buyer sentiment suggests... 18th August 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2026) The further falls in PAYE employment and job vacancies in July show that the labour market continued to weaken. This supports our view that the labour market is not conducive of second-round inflation... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q2 rebound doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The rapid recovery in Israel’s GDP in Q2 confirms that the start of the Iran war had only a minor and temporary effect on the economy, and GDP growth now looks on course to exceed 4% over this year as... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Heatwaves pose bigger risks to inflation than activity Heatwave-related impacts on near-term activity are likely to be sector-specific, short-lived, and therefore have only a small influence on aggregate GDP. This summer’s scorching temperatures pose a... 14th August 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q2 GDP wrap-up, Turkish monetary easing incoming? The raft of Q2 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe highlighted that the region weathered the energy shock reasonably well but also that there’s a wide divergence in performances across the... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Why has the euro-zone economy kept growing? Data published this morning confirmed that euro-zone GDP continued to grow around its trend rate in Q2, despite a sharp rise in energy prices. We forecast that the energy import bill will fall back in... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Setting the record “Strait”; TTF prices could remain hot While conflicting estimates of oil flows out of the Gulf have made it harder to assess the health of the global oil market, the path towards our base case for Brent crude prices to end this year at... 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
