UK Economics Weekly

Electoral cycle to keep rates high, but deepen cuts in 2025

A loosening in fiscal policy next year ahead of a possible election in late 2024 is another reason to think that the Bank of England will keep rates at their current level of 5.25% until late in 2024...

Europe Economics Weekly

Rising oil prices won’t cause the ECB to hike rates

The increase in oil prices over the past few months will have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation, so it won't alter the outlook for monetary policy. We still expect that the ECB will keep its...

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland-Ukraine dispute, Romania's fiscal reforms

Poland’s announcement this week that it would no longer supply weapons to Ukraine doesn't pose an immediate threat to Ukraine’s war effort, but cracks in support are clearly emerging across the region...

FX Markets Update

Taking stock of the European G10 currencies

With most European G10 central banks now at, or very close to, the ends of their tightening cycles, this note examines where the European G10 currencies stand and how we see the outlook for the main...

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.)

The small increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September left it still in contractionary territory. We think a further contraction in activity lies ahead in the remainder of this year.

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2023)

The fall in the activity PMI further below the boom-bust level of 50.0 in September suggests the economy may already be in recession. And with weaker activity weighing more heavily on price pressures...

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2023)

The 0.4% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in August isn’t as good as it looks as it partly reflected a pickup in sales after the unusually wet weather in July. And while the worst of the falls in...

UK Housing Market Update

Interest rate hold won’t provide immediate relief

Despite ending the interest rate hiking cycle today, the Monetary Policy Committee succeeded in convincing financial markets that interest rates will remain high for some time. As market interest rate...

Capital Daily

We doubt hawkish rhetoric will stop yields from falling

Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic, we still expect most long-dated government bond yields in developed markets to fall over the next couple of years.

UK Economics Update

Interest rates are at their peak

The surprise decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today probably means that rates are already at their peak. We think rates will stay at this peak of 5.25% for...

Emerging Europe Economics Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

Turkey’s central bank delivered a 500bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting, to 30.00%, providing further encouragement about policymakers’ commitment to tackling the inflation problem. A lot more...

Europe Economics Update

SNB’s hold suggests rates have peaked

The SNB’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 1.75% was a surprise. Although the Bank left the door open for further hikes, we think rates are now at their peak. And with inflation  set to fall...

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Sep. 2023)

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank and Riksbank nearly done

Following today’s rate hikes, the Riksbank and Norges Bank are now at, or close to, the end of their tightening cycles. Both central banks’ new projections suggest that they are more likely than not...

Emerging Europe Economics Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Aug.)

This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Poland’s retail sales and industrial production figures for August suggest that the economy may be at the early stages...