UK Economics Update Prop to UK inflation from linked prices will fade Even though the components of inflation that are directly linked to past inflation rates have played a big role in the recent rebound in CPI inflation, we think their influence will fade over the next... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Jul. 25) Net lending to property was strong again in July, reaching £1.8bn. While this was a slightly lower outturn than June, it nevertheless drove an acceleration in the three-month total, which hit £6.0bn... 1st September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2025) July’s money and lending data show that interest rate cuts are yet to significantly boost economic activity and that the prospect of tax hikes in the Autumn Budget may be making households a bit more... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2025) The much-stronger-than expected Q2 Turkish GDP growth figure of 1.6% q/q (driven by domestic demand) is likely to make the central bank tread cautiously and suggests that the risks to our hawkish... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Aug. 2025) The unexpected fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in August shows that the recovery in the housing market after the drag from the rise in stamp duty charges on 1st April is being held back... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) The still tight rental market and softening outlook for housing activity – due to weak employment, high mortgage rates and growing speculation around property tax rises in the Autumn Budget – suggests... 29th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Conditions ripe for fiscal crisis, gov’t must not pull the trigger Most of the conditions that have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. The missing factor is a trigger. This means that whatever the Chancellor chooses to do in the Autumn Budget, it’s... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Possible UK landlord tax a headwind to supply and tailwind to rents If the Chancellor were to apply National Insurance tax to rental income in the Autumn Budget, it could further restrain the supply of rental properties and push up rents by more than otherwise. 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe generally held up well in Q2 and, despite the... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August 2025) August’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the impression that the damage from higher US tariffs has been limited. Nevertheless, economic growth remains sluggish. 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone prime recovery to date like the GFC, but different Solid rental growth has meant the recovery in euro-zone prime property values to date has matched the post-GFC period despite a more limited contribution from yield falls. A softer rental outlook... 28th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
