Europe Economics Update SNB to avoid negative rates… for now SNB policymakers have recently pushed back against the prospect of lowering interest rates below zero, so they are likely to leave the policy rate at zero next week. However, we think inflation will... 18th September 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE unlikely to cut interest rates again this year While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its concerns over rising inflation. As a result, we... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Demand for industrial property near ports should hold up The recent resilience of euro-zone trade is expected to continue in the coming quarters, which will support demand for industrial property near key ports. However, industrial demand near the ports of... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Sep. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stagnation in Russia, fragile recoveries in CEE The economies of Emerging Europe will diverge over the coming year as Russia’s war economy continues to run out of steam, while growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picks up – albeit to varying... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
Commodities Focus How vulnerable are EU natural gas supplies? Although Europe’s natural gas supply is now more diverse than before the energy crisis, the fact that most of its gas is imported means it is still exposed to geopolitical and infrastructure-related... 18th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (September 2025) 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal fears likely to stay baked into Gilt yields We still think the 10-year Gilt yield will fall by the end of 2026 as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to anticipate. But with term premia likely to remain elevated... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Rental growth has continued to defy gravity and there is early evidence of yield compression in some sectors such as offices. Nevertheless, a muted economic outlook and limited chance of a substantial... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The recent upward march in CPI inflation paused for breath in August, with CPI inflation staying at 3.8%. Even so, as inflation will probably rise above 4.0% in September, the Bank of England won’t do... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for dollar ahead of the FOMC We no longer expect much of a rebound in the US dollar this year as the FOMC is about to resume rate cuts. But given the extent of Fed easing already discounted, our base case remains that the dollar... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to follow ECB and keep rates on hold The Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 2% next week as recent economic data has been stronger than expected, reducing the need for further loosening. While the risks are towards are a further cut... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2025) While the further, albeit modest, falls in payroll employment and our seasonally adjusted measure of single-month job vacancies in August suggest that the labour market continued to loosen gradually... 16th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone exports still reslient Data published today show that euro-zone exports were little changed in July and that, after a surge due to front-running earlier in the year, they have settled around their average level over the... 15th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rising inflation expectations adding to the BoE’s nerves The recent rises in households’ inflation expectations will be making the Bank of England more nervous about the outlook for inflation. This feeds into our new forecast that the Bank will keep... 12th September 2025 · 9 mins read
