Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight... 26th March 2025 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.75%, and we think that the scope for further interest rate cuts this year has become more limited. We had previously been forecasting... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Fiscal Event (26th Mar. 2025) Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise... 26th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail subsectors to see more consistent performance Physical retail demand has not only been shaped by online shopping, but also by shifting working patterns which have redistributed where we spend our money since COVID-19. Nevertheless, we expect a... 26th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The dip in CPI inflation from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February is a bit of a red herring as inflation will probably be back above 3.0% in April and around 3.5% by September. That and the risk of... 26th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will the bout of EM protests have? The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. It... 25th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) and other surveys for March confirm that the prospect of fiscal stimulus is boosting sentiment in Germany and outweighing concerns about US tariffs for now. But... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Shifting economic sands in US & EZ are also driving markets Over the past month or so, economic data have generally surprised to the downside in the US, whereas they have done the opposite in the euro-zone. This may be one reason for the intervening shift in... 24th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Dutch residential to outperform in the euro-zone Residential has been the Netherlands’ strongest performing commercial property sector since the GFC, with bumper rent growth a key contributor to that outperformance. Looking ahead, slower wage growth... 24th March 2025 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar. 2025) With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is probably becoming increasingly likely to pause interest rate cuts. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2025) February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Europe’s stock market: no big tech, no big sweat The prospect of looser fiscal policy in Germany isn’t the only significant reason MSCI’s Europe Index has outperformed its USA Index since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The ‘big-tech’... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
