Capital Daily AI rally keeps on trucking in spite of the Fed A more hawkish tone from the Fed and a mixed reaction to recent big tech earnings reports presents another potential speedbump for risky assets. Ultimately, we think continued robust US growth... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech strength, Russia banking risks, NBP meeting Data released this week suggest that the Czech economic recovery is continuing to gather momentum. The risks to our GDP growth forecasts there have shifted to the upside and the central bank's easing... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor's second Budget to be about as big as her first Reports that the Chancellor will leave herself with more headroom and that the Office for Budget Responsibility will downgrade its productivity forecasts by more than we were anticipating suggest the... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France & Spain: same budget impasse, diverging debt Governments in France and Spain are both struggling to get 2026 budgets through parliament and significant fiscal consolidation is unlikely in either country. But while France’s debt ratio will trend... 31st October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2025) The small drop back in inflation in October was expected and was driven by a further fall in energy and food inflation. We think both headline and core inflation are likely to fall below 2% in the... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2025) The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in October suggests that homebuyers may not be as fazed by the threat of tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November, potentially on property, as it... 31st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hold steady Norway’s economic data have been a touch weaker than Norges Bank expected recently, but not by enough to prompt a rate cut next week. We’re forecasting the next cut in March 2026. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Carbon tax gets docked; renewable outlook dims The delay to implementing a global carbon tax on shipping emissions – that was described by President Trump as a “scam tax” – is another example of policymakers backsliding on climate ambitions and it... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB giving nothing away The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming meetings too... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s credit engine still misfiring The 30%-pts of GDP decline in Poland’s private sector debt-to-GDP ratio since its recent peak is on a scale typically associated with the aftermath of banking crises. The reasons are more benign in... 30th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was exactly as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey flags concerns over the UK commercial property recovery The RICS survey showed that occupier demand dropped back in Q3 as concerns over the economic outlook, uncertainty around the Budget and rising interests rates all sapped confidence. That has cut... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole held up relatively well at the start of Q4. But there has been... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 2025) & ESI (October 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained fairly slow in Q3, and October’s economic sentiment indicator was consistent with a similar pace of growth at the start of Q4. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed, the BoJ, the ECB, and the bond market The Fed and the BoJ sent their respective government bond markets in different directions earlier today, but we expect yields in both places to rise over time. By contrast, while the ECB is likely to... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q3 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP probably grew by a slightly stronger than expected 0.2% q/q in Q3, mainly thanks to a strong performance by France and Spain. Germany and... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
