Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: GDP contraction should prove short-lived The unexpected contraction in the Israeli economy in Q2 amid the war with Iran should reverse this quarter, and so we think it is unlikely that the Bank of Israel will cut interest rates at its... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2025) Commercial property valuations improved in Q2 this year as alternative asset yields fell even though prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think government bond yields will... 18th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ trade surplus down but exports won’t keep falling The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed sharply in June as exports to the US dropped. But timelier business surveys suggest that overall goods export growth will pick up in the second half of the... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tourists adjusting timing of holidays but not location Despite concerns that over-crowding and heatwaves might reduce tourism to southern Europe, trips to the region are growing at a faster rate than in northern Europe. Instead, tourism has been growing... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: All eyes on Alaska as Trump and Putin take centre stage The scheduled meeting between presidents Trump and Putin later today has focused attention on whether there will be any positive news to end the war in Ukraine, but developments over the course of... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Spotlight on petrochems; Trump-Putin energy implications Calls to limit plastic production as part of the recently-collapsed UN treaty talks were always likely to run into a wall of opposition given the importance of petrochemical feedstocks as a source of... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Can the economy maintain this strength? We don’t think the surprisingly strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year will carry over into the second half. The weak global economy suggests exports will drop back and the... 15th August 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin and the euro-zone economy We do not expect President Trump’s meeting with President Putin to make a breakthrough on the Ukraine conflict. But even if there is a "deal" in the coming months the implications for the wider... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2025) Growth slowed significantly in Switzerland in the second quarter as tariff front-running eased. The economy is likely to expand only slowly the next couple of quarters as high US tariffs and elevated... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to stay strong, despite wage slowdown The recent slowdown in wage growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a welcome development for central banks, but we don’t think it will ease much further, limiting how quickly services... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rent outlook solid, but little room for yield falls The solid pace of economic growth in Spain over the next couple of years will continue to support robust rates of industrial rental growth. However, we don’t think that will be enough to justify large... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response GDP second estimate, Employment (Q2) and IP (June) Data released today confirm that the euro-zone economy expanded at only a modest pace in Q2 and that the labour market is cooling. We are forecasting a temporary pick-up in growth next year as a... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2025) The unexpectedly strong 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in June (consensus and CE forecast 0.1%) and 0.3% q/q gain in Q2 are more likely to be due to a temporary burst of growth rather than a sign of a... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2025) The still tight rental market and softening in housing activity recorded by the RICS survey in July implies that rents will continue to rise faster than house prices for another year or so. 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2 2025) The slowdown in GDP growth in Russia to 1.1% y/y in Q2 suggests that the economy may have narrowly avoided a technical recession, but the economy is clearly struggling amidst imbalances that have... 13th August 2025 · 2 mins read
