Event Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Where next for interest rates? 30th July 2026, 3:00PM BST Amid renewed fighting in the Middle East and volatile energy prices, policymakers are grappling with inflation risks that have by no means receded. How will major central banks respond in their July…
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly US sanctions talk, Hungary’s constitution, oil prices Renewed momentum in the US to tighten sanctions on Russia, including through the imposition of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, could add further pressure on the economy and... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB rates on hold despite higher oil prices It is highly likely that the ECB Governing Council will leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% next week. Although energy prices have risen sharply in the past few weeks, they remain lower than in... 16th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia can still finance the war – but at a growing cost Russia’s fiscal strains are rightly receiving more attention, but we think the more alarmist commentary out there misses the key story. The problem is not that Russia cannot finance the war, but that... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in May is not a bad welcome gift for incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham as it suggests the economy may have grown by around 0.4% q/q in Q2. But with higher energy... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Why Burnham will struggle to revive UK growth Andy Burnham is unlikely to significantly boost the economy’s sustainable growth rate, partly because it is hard to do and he’s unlikely to have long to do it, but also because his diagnosis of the... 15th July 2026 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The euro-zone’s “K-shaped” industry Industrial production has held up well since the Iran war began and output in the most energy-intensive sectors has risen. The bigger picture is that industry is in structural decline, but its... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chart Pack (July 2026) Strengthening economic activity in the US is set to support a pick-up in rental growth over the next year or so, but property performance is still likely to undershoot Europe. And while renewed Iran... 14th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Bonds Update Gilt yields to fall despite political headwinds Despite incoming PM Burnham facing the tricky task of maintaining investor confidence against a fragile fiscal backdrop and the potential for a prolonged US-Iran conflict, we expect Gilt yields to... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality? 21st July 2026, 2:00PM BST From "the biggest council housebuilding programme since the post-war period" to "the biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen", Andy Burnham, the UK's next Prime Minister, has proclaimed a
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly A recipe for oil (and fuel) price volatility While the flare up in military activity in the Middle East does not change our forecast for oil prices to trend lower next year, the latest developments support our view that energy prices will... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebound in energy prices not yet a major worry The rebound in energy prices following the breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire is not big enough to change our view that the ECB has probably finished its hiking “cycle”. Meanwhile, we think President... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tentative housing recovery a positive sign for wider economy We still think CPI inflation will rise from 2.8% in May to a peak of around 3.5% in early 2027 and that the resulting drag on real activity has yet to come. But tentative signs of a turnaround in the... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
