Bonds Update LatAm bonds to outperform if energy prices fall further If the Iran war eases and energy prices fall back further, we expect LatAm bonds to outperform, as monetary policy would be eased substantially in Brazil and, to a lesser extent, in Mexico. By... 21st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb./Mar. 2026) While the fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests the labour market was stabilising around the turn of the year, the decline in payroll employment in March suggests that the rise in energy... 21st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update EZ spreads won’t rise by much despite high debt levels A sustained re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz would probably mean euro-zone bond spreads narrow a bit further this year. What’s more, our base case is that spreads in Italy and France will remain... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How serious is the threat of energy shortages? The consequences of the Iran war for the UK economy are more about higher energy prices than energy shortages. That said, 12% of the UK's diesel imports and 63% of its jet fuel imports come from the... 17th April 2026 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary votes for change The macroeconomic impact of the landslide Tisza victory in Hungary is most likely to materialise over the medium term. More immediately, expectations for improved credibility policy and renewed access... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Iran war to boost UK prices for flights, flowers and food Outside of fuel and utilities, the prices of flights, other forms of transport, flowers and food are likely to rise the most in response to the Iran war. In our baseline scenario, food price inflation... 16th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Caution is warranted on defence-driven growth The latest IMF analysis broadly corroborates the conclusion we reached a year ago that higher defence spending will not turbocharge economic growth. The near-term boost to output will be smaller than... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Life science to outperform, but will remain a niche sector While supply headwinds have hit life science performance in recent years, long-term fundamentals have been reinforced by the pandemic. We expect a recovery in the short term and strong performance... 16th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ headline inflation to rise further, core little changed Headline inflation in the euro-zone rose to 2.6% in March and in our baseline forecast it increases to 3% in April then remains just above that level over the rest of the year. This increase largely... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What does the Iran war mean for UK loan arrears? While higher unemployment and mortgage rates due to the Iran war suggest the share of loans in arrears will rise over the next few years, even in an adverse scenario it will remain low relative to... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.5% m/m in February (consensus forecast 0.1%, Capital Economics 0.2%) and the upward revision to January GDP from 0.0% m/m to +0.1% m/m suggests the economy went into the... 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thoughts on Hungary’s incoming geopolitical reset The incoming Tisza government is likely to realign Hungary’s foreign policy stance towards the EU, but economic pragmatism will mean that ties with Russia (energy) and China (FDI) adjust only... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of rate expectations Despite apparent contradictions between market pricing and consensus surveys when it comes to interest rate expectations, both seem consistent with a relatively “adverse” outcome to the war. That... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK banks keen to lend despite Iran war uncertainty Despite the uncertainty from the Iran war, banks are still willing to lend to commercial property. A sizeable share plan on loosening credit conditions further in Q2, supported by a positive view on... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
