Europe Economics Focus The fallout from France’s ongoing political deadlock The latest political developments in Paris underline that France is heading for some kind of fiscal crisis which in turn means the risk premium on its debt is likely to rise in the coming year or two... 6th October 2025 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update Drone strikes, Russia’s oil sector & the upside risk to oil The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ANO victory = looser fiscal stance, hawkish CNB The victory for the populist eurosceptic ANO party in the Czech parliamentary election over the weekend will likely result in looser fiscal policy, which will support GDP growth and cement the central... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Sep. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the second consecutive month in September to 46.2, from 45.5 in August. But that is still firmly in contractionary territory. 6th October 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France’s PM resignation: what next? The resignation of yet another French prime minister, this time after just 27 days, hammers home how the fractured parliament is making it nearly impossible to pass a budget that reduces the fiscal... 6th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech election nears, awaiting a fiscal impulse The Czech parliamentary election kicks off today, with opposition populist party ANO set to gain the most number of seats. Depending on its actual vote share, the only way it may be able to form a... 3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will households start spending more soon? It was confirmed this week that consumer spending grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q2. We expect consumer spending growth to accelerate, but there are three growing downside risks to that view - weaker... 3rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No sign of China import flood; Italy deficit back at 3% The latest data show that there is little sign of a flood of cheap Chinese goods hitting the euro-zone as a result of US tariffs. Meanwhile, the new deficit projections released by the Italian... 3rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) The pick up in headline inflation in Turkey last month, to 33.3% y/y, was driven in large part by another rise in food inflation and, with core inflation continuing to drop back, we think that the... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Europe’s populists copy Italy’s fiscal restraint? In principle, the relatively cautious fiscal policy that Giorgia Meloni’s government has followed in Italy offers a model that other right-wing populist parties could follow. But in practice, with the... 2nd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Europe Economics Update Swiss inflation to be stuck at zero Switzerland’s inflation remained at just 0.2% in September and it is likely to average close to zero over the coming years. This is in part due to temporary factors, such as reductions in the mortgage... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Conversions reinforce a strong Spanish office rent outlook Office rental growth in Spain’s major markets will be underpinned by rapid employment growth and relatively low rates of hybrid work. And these trends are further supported by healthy conversion... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) Switzerland’s headline inflation rate once again remained at 0.2% in September, but we think it will fall back to zero by early next year. Accordingly, we expect the SNB to cut interest rates again... 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The macro implications of the Czech election The latest polling ahead of the Czech parliamentary election this weekend suggests that the right-wing populist opposition party, ANO, will gain the highest share of votes and may form a coalition... 1st October 2025 · 17 mins read
