Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Climate policy falls down the agenda The recent scrapping of the carbon tax in Canada shows that the political pushback against climate policy is certainly not just confined to the United States. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Feb. 2025) February’s money and lending figures provide some green shoots of households starting to save less and spend a little more freely. But one month doesn’t make a trend and GDP growth will probably... 31st March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Feb. 25) Net lending to property continued its recent run of strength in February, with total lending of £1.58bn up from £917m in January and the highest monthly figure since May 2020. 31st March 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More headwinds for gilts to come from home than abroad The UK may have one of the most shielded economies against US tariffs. But stagflation and fiscal risks at home provide strong headwinds for its bond market. 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariffs dampen the mood With the major business surveys for March now published it is clear that economic activity is still growing slowly at best. The good news about the German fiscal stimulus has boosted sentiment but the... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Fiscal risks much bigger than tariff risks While the possibility of more US tariffs on UK exports will dominate next week, the bigger risk over the next six months or so comes from the unfinished fiscal business after the Chancellor’s fiscal... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Auto tariffs, Black Sea ceasefire, Israel budget Hungary and Slovakia will be affected more than most if the Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% auto import tariff isn’t reversed. Elsewhere, efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risks to the upside for euro-zone net migration Net immigration to the euro-zone has been very high in recent years, and the risks are skewed towards it exceeding the European Commission’s projection of 0.3% per year over the long term. The... 28th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads Given our view that the rise in yields outside Germany will not match the recent increase in Bund yields anytime soon, we are revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads. That said, we still... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2024 Final) & Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) Today’s deluge of data confirmed that the economy was weak even before the full effects of higher business taxes are felt and that a high household saving rate continues to restrain GDP growth... 28th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Brightening prospects – more so if Ukraine war ends We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts across most of the region for this year and think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies will pick up pace going into 2026, despite the headwind from... 27th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2025) Outflows from EM capital markets have eased in recent weeks as the US dollar has faltered. But a period of sustained inflows looks unlikely as President Trump presses ahead with tariff policies that... 27th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe Commercial Property Outlook: Higher interest rates weaken the recovery Following upward revisions to our forecasts for policy rates and bond yields, we have raised our forecasts for prime property yields in Europe and now expect increases of around 20-25bps by the end of... 27th March 2025 · 28 mins read
