Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone flash PMIs (February) February’s flash PMIs support the view that activity in the euro-zone economy is growing at a reasonable pace, led by a pick-up in Germany, and that price pressures remain too high for the ECB to... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The big reduction in public borrowing and surge in retail sales in January support other evidence that the economy started the year looking a lot healthier. This will give the Chancellor something... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland to lead Europe on AI While we think it will take several years before AI has a meaningful impact on Europe’s economies, Switzerland may be an exception. There is already some evidence of a positive boost from AI. And we... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ housebuilding subdued, civil engineering growing There is likely to be an increase in civil engineering activity in the euro-zone this year as Germany’s government boosts infrastructure spending. However, we think that this boost will be smaller... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Carbon capture only a stopgap for fossil fuel emissions Carbon capture technologies are often put forward as a solution to lowering emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, but given the high costs involved, their uptake has been slow. This Update addresses... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation points to lower Gilt yields, even if politics doesn’t We now think that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in March, and continue to think it will take rates lower than investors expect this cycle. So, despite politics putting some upwards... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Supply cuts won’t spark immediate logistics recovery Global new industrial supply has been contracting rapidly, hitting its lowest level in a decade as developers pull back. However, we expect demand to fall short of supply again this year, delaying a... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement Preview: Possible flashpoint for Starmer/Reeves The Chancellor’s fiscal statement to Parliament on Tuesday 3rd March has the potential to be another flashpoint for Prime Minister Starmer and Chancellor Reeves. But whether Starmer/Reeves hang on or... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent downside inflation surprises across Central and Eastern Europe suggest there may be... 18th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does Hungary need a US financial backstop? Marcio Rubio’s comments this week that the US might provide financial support to Hungary if needed seems to have been welcomed by local financial markets. Hungary’s public finances are not in good... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2026) Coming on the back of the further easing in wage growth in yesterday’s release, the decline in CPI inflation from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus 3.0%, CE 3.1%, BoE 2.9%) may be just... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and despite the economy falling into recession at the end of last year, we think a return to monetary easing is still... 17th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus US still tops AI index, but China surges up the rankings We have updated our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the long-run benefits of AI. The US still leads. The Asian tigers and UK... 17th February 2026 · 16 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2026) Commercial property valuations held steady in Q4, with falling equity dividend yields offsetting rising government bond yields. Looking ahead, falls in western European government bond yields this... 17th February 2026 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec./Jan. 2026) The lack of green shoots of recovery in the labour market and further fall in wage growth supports the idea that the Bank of England has at least a couple more interest rate cuts in its locker, with... 17th February 2026 · 3 mins read
