Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central bank... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2024) Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely shrugged off the unusually wet weather, provided further evidence that a rebound in retail... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The doves have it – what next for markets? This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term... 21st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2 Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached... 21st March 2024 · 31 mins read
UK Economics Update Slight dovish tilt, and BoE will become more dovish before long With the Bank of England striking a slightly more dovish tone whilst keeping interest rates at 5.25% and inflation likely to fall further and faster than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Mar. 2024) 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB starts its loosening cycle, Norges Bank on hold The SNB under Chairman Thomas Jordan has never shied away from making big calls, so it was fitting that it surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut today, to 1.5%, only three weeks after Mr Jordan... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for February suggest that loose fiscal policy and continued fast wage growth helped the economy to recover at the start of this year. We maintain our... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar. 2024) While the composite activity PMI fell a touch in March, it still suggest that the UK economy has probably moved out of recession. This implies there is upside risk to our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 0... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price components of the surveys suggest that underlying price pressures are... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Feb. 2024) February’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that the OBR’s new 2023/24 borrowing forecast published in March’s Budget already looks too optimistic. But this may not prevent the government... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 50bp again today, to 5.75%, and we think that it will continue easing policy throughout 2024. Our forecast for interest rates to fall to 3.50% by the end... 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read