Europe Economics Update Riksbank likely to wait for uncertainty to clear On balance, we think the Riksbank is likely to wait until its August meeting before cutting interest rates again in order to get greater clarity on the outlook for the economy. After a 25bp cut in... 11th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence... 10th June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reflections on recent elections Recent presidential elections in Poland, Romania and Korea have led to significant moves in their financial markets. But from a macro perspective, what also matters is the composition of the... 10th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2025) With payrolls plunging, the unemployment rate climbing and wage growth easing, today’s labour market release leaves us more confident in our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from... 10th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Bulgaria gets the green light, Poland election fallout The European Commission gave its approval for Bulgaria join the euro-zone next year and, while the macroeconomic implications of euro adoption will be small, geopolitically it will bind the country... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Three things to watch in the Spending Review Next week’s Spending Review will shine a light on the UK’s tight fiscal position. And the Chancellor’s problems are far from over. U-turns on benefit and welfare spending and higher borrowing costs... 6th June 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, disinflation continues While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (June) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% (18.00%... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How fast will euro-zone wage growth fall? Wage growth looks set to slow from 4.5% last year to around 3% by the end of 2025, leaving it within touching distance of the 2.5% rate we think is consistent with the ECB’s inflation target. 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property development on the road to recovery After a lean couple of years, the outlook for commercial property construction is brightening. While the economic outlook is fairly weak, vacancy rates in some subsectors such as prime offices and... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (May 2025) The fall back in house prices on the Halifax measure in May increases the chances that more of the recent soft patch in the housing market is due to the subdued economy than the temporary effects of... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (April) German industrial production and export figures for April suggest that the boost to activity from US tariff front running is already reversing and that underlying industrial activity remains weak... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily ECB unlikely to drive EUR/USD any higher While the ECB cut its policy rate today, as widely expected, President Lagarde’s accompanying comments tilted hawkish and have given interest rate expectations and the euro a boost. Our view remains... 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably has one cut left The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% was in line with expectations and the messaging in the press conference suggests that a pause at the next meeting in July is most likely. We... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (June 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% and give no clear signals about the future path of monetary policy was in line with expectations. We forecast one more rate cut in the second... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
