UK Economics Weekly Political uncertainty may stifle economy for rest of the year The way things are going at the moment, it is possible that we won't know whether or not Starmer will be removed as Prime Minister and, if he is, who will replace him until mid-August. And if there is... 15th May 2026 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal path, CBRT inflation, shekel strength Announcements from Hungary’s new government, which took office last weekend, suggest that we’re unlikely to see the full details of its plans to reduce the budget deficit until Q3. Until then, the... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The case for further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has been one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year, hitting a 33-year high against the dollar. Further gains are possible provided geopolitical risks remain contained... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fuel price shock driving EM inflation higher Inflation data for April released across EMs suggest that the energy price shock has pushed fuel inflation up materially and that surveys of firms’ inflation expectations are rising sharply. So far... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q1 2026) Polish GDP growth in Q1, of 0.5% q/q, was a bit softer than expected, but it still looks like the economy weathered the first few months of the energy shock reasonably well. 14th May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar./Q1 2026) GDP rose by a bumper 0.6% q/q in Q1 (consensus and CE forecast 0.6%), but this will be the high point for the year given the effects of the war in Iran will sap growth from Q2. In our baseline... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr. 2026) The recent plunge in buyer sentiment triggered by the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran appeared to stabilise in April. Even so, April’s RICS survey continues to suggest that the... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Residential assets have a bright future Tight supply means residential assets will see the strongest rental growth of all sectors over the next few years. And, with the costs of maintaining a home rising, house price expectations subdued... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone less reliant on fossil fuels than in 2022 The euro-zone’s declining reliance on fossil fuels – driven by lower overall energy demand and a shift towards renewables – means that the economy is becoming less sensitive to higher fossil fuel... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy are very sensitive to the severity and duration of the increase in energy prices. Our baseline forecasts are based on an assumption that the price of Brent crude... 13th May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Big falls in nominal house prices unlikely, even in adverse scenario Despite its recent resilience, house price growth will probably slow over the coming months as the drag from higher mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to grow. But big outright falls... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1 2026) & Industrial Production (March 2026) The euro-zone economy grew around its trend pace in Q1 and March’s industrial production data show that higher energy prices did not take an immediate toll on output. Our baseline forecast is that GDP... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt mess still more about global problems than Starmer The surge in long-term Gilt yields over recent weeks owes as much to the rise in energy prices as it does to the UK’s latest political melodrama. On both fronts, it looks increasingly as though things... 12th May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 26) Property valuations saw little movement in Q1 with property and alternative asset yields holding steady. Looking ahead, the Iran war has pushed up yields on alternative assets so valuations will... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First signs of advanced economy fallout from Iran war The marked increase in inflation across advanced economies has yet to cause real spending to contract, but the widespread decline in consumer sentiment and hiring intentions points to worse to come... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strait still closed; Trump goes to China; Starmer clings on Neither US-Iran negotiations nor the Trump-Xi summit appear to offer much cause for cheer, and UK politics are inching towards another precipice, but equity markets appear determined to party on. 11th May 2026 · 5 mins read
