UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey flags concerns over the UK commercial property recovery The RICS survey showed that occupier demand dropped back in Q3 as concerns over the economic outlook, uncertainty around the Budget and rising interests rates all sapped confidence. That has cut... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole held up relatively well at the start of Q4. But there has been... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 2025) & ESI (October 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained fairly slow in Q3, and October’s economic sentiment indicator was consistent with a similar pace of growth at the start of Q4. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed, the BoJ, the ECB, and the bond market The Fed and the BoJ sent their respective government bond markets in different directions earlier today, but we expect yields in both places to rise over time. By contrast, while the ECB is likely to... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q3 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP probably grew by a slightly stronger than expected 0.2% q/q in Q3, mainly thanks to a strong performance by France and Spain. Germany and... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q3 2025) The early Q3 GDP figures out of Central Europe showed a divergence in performance with Hungary’s economy continuing to struggle, while the Czech recovery shifted up a gear. We expect growth in Hungary... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on hold over coming quarters The Riksbank will keep the policy rate at 1.75% next week and, despite the recent strong economic data, will continue to say that the policy rate will stay at its current level “for some time to come... 29th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2025) EM financial markets have continued to perform well in the past quarter, with currencies holding firm against the US dollar and sovereign bond spreads narrowing in many places. This has been supported... 29th October 2025 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Skipping a cut With CPI inflation almost double the 2.0% target and the Budget in a few weeks’ time, we think that a narrow majority of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will vote to keep interest... 29th October 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2025) There is little evidence within September’s money and lending data that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November is influencing households’ financial decisions just yet. 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Sep. 25) Net lending to commercial property dropped to £1.65bn in September, from £2.60bn in August. That helped bring the three-month total down to £6.2bn, the first decline on that measure since March. 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2025) The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey, published this morning, suggested that mortgage demand in the euro-zone continues to be strong. But households remain reluctant to borrow to boost their... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (October 2025) The pick-up in the German Ifo chimes with that in the Composite PMI released on Friday and suggests that the German economy may be past the worst. This would be in line with our view that economy will... 27th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Pressure on Russia ramps up as Trump loses patience The US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector announced this week, if enforced stringently, have the potential to significantly raise the cost for Russia of continuing the war in Ukraine. But Putin’s... 24th October 2025 · 6 mins read
