Bonds Update Who owns France’s debt, and will they stick around? The large share of French government bonds held outside the euro-zone arguably makes France more vulnerable than Italy or Spain to a sharp rise in yields if its fiscal woes worsen. But we think demand... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel's crunch coalition talks, CEE rate outlooks The first steps in Israel's coalition negotiations have put Gadi Eisenkot in pole position to lead the next government. While forming a coalition still looks difficult, on net this is probably... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (September 2026) The large fall in euro-zone retail sales in September suggests that household consumption was weak in Q3. It also implies that there are downside risks to our forecast that consumption will increase... 6th November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Lloyds House Prices (Oct. 2026) The big 0.6% m/m fall in the Lloyds measure of house prices in October (CE forecast -0.1%, consensus forecast -0.1%) lays bare the impact that high mortgage rates are having on the housing market... 6th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily AI boom runs into US politics buzzsaw Growing fears about the sustainability of the AI buildout in the context of the major shift in US politics have led to another bruising day for tech stocks. Whether the mid-terms shock turns out to be... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Nov. 26) Higher risk-free interest rates are putting upward pressure on property yields, although all-property yields have seen a relatively small 7bps rise in the year to Q3. Nevertheless, capital values are... 5th November 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime office rents will continue to exceed consensus expectations Euro-zone prime office rents have risen sharply in real terms since 2019. However, after allowing for the decline in space per worker since the pandemic, affordability remains below past peaks... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE hikes more likely to be small and short rather than large and long The rise in interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% announced by the Bank of England today is more likely to mark the start of small and short-lived rise in rates rather than the large and long-lasting... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The Czech National Bank’s 25bp hike today, to 4.00%, is likely to be followed by one more increase in the cycle next year. Market pricing has shifted down towards our view in recent days but still... 5th November 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Nov. 2026) The rise in interest rates from 3.75% to 4.00% announced by the Bank of England today is more likely to be part of a small and short-lived rise in rates rather than the large and long-lasting rise... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update COP31 struggles for relevance The forthcoming COP31 climate conference risks being overshadowed by the fallout from the US midterms. In any case, the more consequential developments for the green transition are continuing to take... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will France be forced to tighten fiscal policy? We expect France to be forced into a substantial fiscal consolidation in the coming years. This would be a drag on economic growth, but the scale of that drag would depend, among other things, on... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (October 26) Having improved in September, the headline construction PMI fell back in October. At 43.6, the level was the lowest since June. Both the commercial and housing activity balances worsened over the... 5th November 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Q3 growth stumble not huge cause for concern Despite the disappointing Q3 GDP figures, we still think that Hungary’s economic outlook has fundamentally improved since Tisza’s election victory in April. We expect growth to strengthen to 2.5% next... 5th November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) While the economy has been remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and borrowing costs, the coming rise in CPI inflation is likely to dampen real GDP growth from 1.5% this year as a whole to 1.0... 4th November 2026 · 1 min read
