Europe Economics Update Rising chance of ECB hikes in first half of the year Before ECB policymakers react to the rise in energy prices, they will wait for more clarity on the size and duration of the shock. There would be no need for a response if energy prices dropped back... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Mar. 26) The Iran conflict has increased uncertainty and pushed up interest rates, both of which will weigh on investment activity over the next few months. But, assuming the impact of the conflict is short... 19th March 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank of England leaning a bit more towards rate hikes rather than cuts While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2026) The ECB’s press release and updated forecasts suggest that policymakers think that the inflationary effects of higher energy prices will outweigh the disinflationary effects of weaker economic growth... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Mar. 2026) While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today as widely expected, the Bank of England suggested it is more concerned about the upsides to inflation from the leap in energy prices triggered by the... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Affordability of renting vs buying a tailwind for rental demand The comparative affordability of renting versus owner-occupation is one factor that we expect to support rental demand across most European markets in the coming years, especially in the German... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response SNB Monetary Policy decision (March 2026) The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at zero today and nudged up its inflation forecast trivially. Otherwise, its commentary underlines the Bank’s willingness to intervene to limit upward pressure... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan./Feb. 2026) While there were some green shoots of a recovery in payroll employment in February, today’s data release shows that the labour market was still weak before the new stagflation shock due to the events... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Why the UK stock market isn’t doing better despite higher oil prices The Gilt market has grabbed a lot of headlines since the start of the war in the Middle East, as government bond yields have surged by more in the UK than elsewhere in response to soaring oil prices... 17th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Which European countries are most exposed to higher energy prices? The rise in energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict will have an adverse impact on most European economies. In the euro-zone, Germany and Italy are more exposed than France, though Germany has... 17th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia sanction relief barely helps; cracks in refined markets The temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions by the US is one of several levers being pulled by policymakers to reduce oil prices from ~$100pb. But despite these efforts, prices will remain high for... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How might governments respond to the energy shock? If oil and natural gas prices remain high, it seems very likely that governments will step in with some fiscal support. The scale of that support is uncertain, but even if energy prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict already hurting the UK economy The rises in petrol prices and mortgage rates show that the new stagflationary pressures we previously warned about due to the conflict in the Middle East have arrived. We think the Bank of England... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2026) With GDP not rising at all in January, it is clear the economy was subdued even before the leap in energy prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. We previously thought GDP growth would be 1.0%... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
