Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank to slow the pace of easing to 250bp didn’t come as a major surprise but the fairly hawkish communications support our view that real interest rates are likely to... 11th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will wait before cutting again Norges Bank signalled last month that it would cut interest rates later this year, but we expect it to leave policy unchanged next week. It will probably reduce interest rates before year-end, but any... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug. 2025) August’s RICS survey shows that the combination of weak employment, rebounding mortgage rates and fears over tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November are holding back housing activity, while rents... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: limited boost from defence spending surge Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on... 10th September 2025 · 19 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK mortgage arrears may not have peaked just yet The weak labour market means it’s too soon to conclude that the share of mortgages in arrears won’t rise further, although it will remain low relative to past standards. 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK PBSA may benefit from drop in US foreign students The number of visas granted to foreign students looking to study in the UK saw a substantial rise in Q2, likely reflecting a substantial fall in the numbers entering the US as restrictions there have... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily French bonds are up the Bayrou without a paddle The (largely expected) fall of the French government has made limited impact on euro-zone financial markets. But it represents another step in the gradual deterioration of the outlook for French... 9th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 9th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Your questions on France answered This Update answers the key questions that we received during this morning’s online Drop-in on the collapse of France’s government. (The recording is available here.) The key points are that while... 9th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) German industrial production rose in July and the outturn for June was revised up suggesting that the sector has been resilient to tariffs after all. But output was still weak by past standards. We... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar still likely to rebound from latest payrolls setback Another soft non-farm payrolls report has put the dollar on the backfoot again, but given the extent of Fed easing already discounted we continue to think the greenback will remain rangebound over the... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin meets energy allies, Turkey’s court decision China and India both signalled this week that they are likely to continue buying Russian energy, but this won't save Russia from weak GDP growth over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the macro data out... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Later Budget may hinder, not help the Chancellor While the Chancellor will be hoping that a later Budget will mean she gets a more favourable set of forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), we are not convinced. The OBR will still... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Thirty-year EZ bond yields are not such a worry Yields on long-dated government bonds have been a talking point for investors again this week but we don’t think the increase will have much impact on the economic outlook for the euro-zone. Next week... 5th September 2025 · 5 mins read
