Europe Economics Update Euro-zone households will remain reluctant to spend Households are still saving an unusually large share of their incomes and the latest surveys suggest that the saving rate will remain high in the near term, weighing on consumption. And while we... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP growth maintained a moderate pace, at 2.0-2.5% y/y, at the start of Q3. The prices components of the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2025) & ESI (July 2025) The slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 came as no surprise as the boost from tariff front-running waned. We expect growth to remain weak in the second half of the year . 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q2 2025) The Q2 GDP data released out of Hungary and Czechia confirmed that both economies have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April. With the EU-US trade deal likely to deal... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: House prices to beat expectations in 2026 The stuttering jobs market and the softening outlook for wage growth means we now expect house prices to rise by only 2.0% in the year to Q4 2025 (3.5% previously). But our view that Bank Rate will... 29th July 2025 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jun. 25) 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2025) June’s money and lending figures support wider evidence that the deteriorating jobs market has led to a rise in consumer caution as households have become a bit more cautious about spending. This... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tariff uncertainty drags on Q2 CRE investment The recovery in euro-zone investment paused in Q2 against a backdrop of trade policy and economic uncertainty. While the trade deal means some of that uncertainty has reduced, we expect that the... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Europe’s trade deal not doing much for its stock market Euro-zone equities have, in general, already given back much of their gains after this weekend’s trade deal between the US and the EU. And we don’t foresee a new wave of euro-zone exceptionalism. 28th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will Turkey & Argentina’s exchange rate policies backfire? The use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for prices – as is currently the case in Turkey and Argentina – has a broadly successful track record in bringing down inflation in the emerging world... 28th July 2025 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wealth taxes: no silver bullet There have been renewed calls for a wealth tax recently as a means of narrowing budget deficits. However, experience suggests that most countries would struggle to raise more than around 0.1% of GDP... 28th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update A bad deal is (just about) better than no deal The trade agreement confirmed yesterday by Presidents Trump and von der Leyen could result in the average tariff on US imports from the EU rising from 1.2% last year to about 17%. We think this will... 28th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Sterling likely to weaken vs euro as UK-EZ rates converge The combination of some relatively hawkish signals from the ECB yesterday and some more soggy data out of the UK has sent the euro to its strongest level against sterling since late 2023. We think... 25th July 2025 · 6 mins read
