Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s energy crisis casts cloud over recovery Low water levels in the Danube are forcing Hungary to take its nuclear power plant offline, prompting officials to urge cuts in energy consumption. The scale of the macroeconomic effects will, of... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany: upward revisions but still looking sickly Revisions to Germany’s GDP data suggest that the economy did a little better than previously thought since 2024. But it has still been the clear “sick man of Europe” in the 2020s and its long term... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2026) The small increase in headline inflation in July was largely due to higher energy inflation and is unlikely to change policymakers’ thinking significantly ahead of the ECB’s September policy meeting. 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jul. 2026) The small 0.1% m/m rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in July shows that higher mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war continued to constrain house price growth. And with the... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Little macroeconomic impact of horrendous wildfires The wildfires that have been raging in France and Spain have already had a devastating effect on many businesses and there may be worse to come. However, their aggregate impact on GDP and the... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey implies risk of UK commercial property capital value falls is declining The Q2 RICS survey showed little change from the previous quarter, although a rise in capital value expectations suggests the impact of the Iran war on yields is now projected to be smaller. Overall... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that the majority of EMs have been well placed to weather the effects of the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th July 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE rate hikes may remain more a threat than a reality Even though the Bank of England again talked up the possibility of interest rate hikes while leaving rates at 3.75% today, we think rates are more likely to stay on hold this year and be cut to 3.00%... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (30th Jul. 2026) Even though the Bank of England continued to talk up the possibility of interest rate hikes while leaving rates at 3.75% today, we think rates are more likely to stay on hold this year and be cut to 3... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2026) The continued steady growth of the euro-zone economy in Q2 shows that households and businesses have not pared back their spending much due to the Iran war. We think the economy will continue growing... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Equities Update UK stocks may fare better than most if AI bubble pops If the AI-fuelled equity bubble is in the process of bursting, we think the UK stock market will hold up better than most of its peers, unlike after the dotcom crash. 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2026) National data released so far suggest that activity in the euro-zone held up quite well in the second quarter, with GDP in the euro-zone excluding Ireland probably rising by 0.2% q/q . We suspect it... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q2 2026) The relatively weak 0.4% q/q GDP growth recorded in both Hungary and Czechia in Q2 suggests that both economies weren’t as resilient to the effects of the energy shock as we had anticipated. This... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) Capital inflows into EMs financial markets – particularly equities – have risen over the past month despite the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. Outflows could return again if the situation... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Update Burnham’s ambitions will soon collide with fiscal reality The PM has so far outlined ambitious plans that might cost over £45bn (1.5% of GDP). But market constraints and his commitment not to hike the big three taxes means his ambitions will soon collide... 29th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Reintroducing Help to Buy wouldn’t solve housing’s problem While a new Help to Buy scheme would stimulate homebuilding in the near term, it’s not a sustainable solution to low housing supply. The government would be better off easing some of the structural... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
