Capital Daily Parsing the long-end bond sell off As long-end government bond yields continue to rise, identifying the culprit for the latest sell-off becomes ever more pressing. 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is contagion from France? Contagion from France’s government bond market to the rest of the euro-zone will probably be muted and short-lived unless France’s own crisis becomes much bigger than we expect. This is partly because... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could (and should) the UK Chancellor raise? If the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is going to continue to meet her fiscal rule with a buffer of £9.9bn, she will probably have to raise £18-28bn in the Autumn Budget, mostly via higher taxes. We... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update How much will the UK Chancellor need to raise in the Budget? Our latest estimate suggests the Chancellor will need to raise £18-28bn in the Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rules and to maintain her £9.9bn buffer. With Labour MPs not amenable to spending... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Prop to UK inflation from linked prices will fade Even though the components of inflation that are directly linked to past inflation rates have played a big role in the recent rebound in CPI inflation, we think their influence will fade over the next... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Jul. 25) Net lending to property was strong again in July, reaching £1.8bn. While this was a slightly lower outturn than June, it nevertheless drove an acceleration in the three-month total, which hit £6.0bn... 1st September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2025) July’s money and lending data show that interest rate cuts are yet to significantly boost economic activity and that the prospect of tax hikes in the Autumn Budget may be making households a bit more... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2025) The much-stronger-than expected Q2 Turkish GDP growth figure of 1.6% q/q (driven by domestic demand) is likely to make the central bank tread cautiously and suggests that the risks to our hawkish... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Aug. 2025) The unexpected fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in August shows that the recovery in the housing market after the drag from the rise in stamp duty charges on 1st April is being held back... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) The still tight rental market and softening outlook for housing activity – due to weak employment, high mortgage rates and growing speculation around property tax rises in the Autumn Budget – suggests... 29th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Conditions ripe for fiscal crisis, gov’t must not pull the trigger Most of the conditions that have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. The missing factor is a trigger. This means that whatever the Chancellor chooses to do in the Autumn Budget, it’s... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
