UK Commercial Property Update Iran conflict a small downside risk for UK commercial real estate The increase in energy costs brought about by the conflict in Iran could hit commercial property returns either through squeezed occupier margins and therefore weaker property demand and rent growth... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict to raise UK inflation more than it cuts growth We will wait for more clarity on events in the Middle East before altering our inflation, GDP and Bank Rate forecasts. But in a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain close to current levels... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone policymakers in wait-and-see mode, for now While the spike in energy prices and recent inflation data have reduced the chances of rate cuts this year, we do not expect the ECB to pivot to rate hikes either, provided energy prices do not rise... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The nightmare energy scenario cometh As conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, the key issue for energy markets is the extent and duration of disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The steady upward trend in oil prices as... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ GDP likely to keep rising despite energy shock Data published this morning showed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in Q4 last year. If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, it will be a small drag on growth but not... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in the Halifax measure of house prices in February provides further evidence that the recent improvement in the housing market has continued. We think housing will pick-up further... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and... 5th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Middle East conflict gives Russia an oil windfall Russia is a clear beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and, possibly, higher export volumes to Asia likely to narrow the budget deficit. But unless disruption to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK industry, hotels and retail vulnerable to rising energy costs The recent rise in the UK wholesale gas price due to the events in the Middle East, so far, points to only a modest rise in firms’ energy costs. But industry and those services sectors hit hardest by... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM assets have further to fall if Iran conflict intensifies While EM financial markets have started to stabilise following the recent selloff, they are vulnerable to a further deterioration in risk sentiment. Markets in EMEA appear most exposed due to... 5th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The jump in energy prices since the outbreak of the Iran conflict poses an upside risk to our inflation forecast and downside risk to our GDP forecast. However, even if prices remain at their current... 5th March 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower UK interest rate cuts more likely than rate hikes While parallels are being made with the energy price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the rise in energy prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East has so far been smaller... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Feb. 26) The headline CIPS construction PMI fell to 44.5 in February, reversing some of the gain made in January and leaving the index firmly in contractionary territory. 5th March 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import... 4th March 2026 · 6 mins read
