Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered no surprises in leaving its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and we continue to think that the easing cycle will remain on pause this year. While we had... 21st October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2025) September’s figures highlight the poor performance of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been terribly weak. This supports our view that the Chancellor will need to raise about £27bn... 21st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Faster EU Russian energy phase out won’t boost prices Given that the EU has already largely discontinued imports of Russian oil and pipeline natural gas, the acceleration of its pledge to completely shift away from Russian energy is unlikely have... 20th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CE lead indicator points to euro-zone capital value slowdown Our new CE Capital Value Lead Indicator for the euro-zone is consistent with our latest forecast view that prime all-property capital value growth will slow to below 5% y/y by year-end. 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB heading for negative rates (but no others following) We think it is just a matter of time before the SNB returns to negative policy rates as inflation is close to zero and geopolitical risks may put upward pressure on the franc. But negative rates will... 20th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is this peak inflation? If we’re right in expecting Wednesday’s release to reveal that CPI inflation jumped to more than double the 2.0% target in September, then the UK’s reputation for controlling inflation will be... 17th October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Small fiscal loosening in the euro-zone next year Draft 2026 budget plans submitted to the European Commission this week point to a moderate loosening of fiscal policy next year. In practice we think that the degree of policy loosening will be... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning is the rise in ‘extend and pretend’ for UK commercial property loans? The surge in net lending by banks to commercial property firms may in part reflect borrowers being forced to refinance loans on buildings they have been unable to sell. But in contrast to the GFC... 17th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gaza ceasefire holding, Russia-India energy relations The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas remained intact this week, but the road to a lasting peace looks fragile. Meanwhile, we still think that an interest rate cut by the Bank of Israel next month... 17th October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone food inflation should fall next year Food inflation in the euro-zone has picked up this year but we think that it will fall back in 2026. This would reinforce the disinflation that we expect from lower energy prices and slower wage... 17th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas ceasefire, oil slides, Tunisia’s unorthodoxy persists The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has, so far, remained intact, which could bring positive spillovers for the likes of Egypt and Jordan. More importantly, however, the war has fundamentally... 16th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Focus CBAM – which economies could be hit hardest? The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) extends the EU’s carbon pricing mechanism to the rest of the world through what is essentially a ‘carbon tariff’. Many emerging markets have opposed... 16th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s investment slump to ease, but challenges remain We think the investment slump that has caused Hungary’s economy to underperform its Central European peers is close to bottoming out, but ongoing delays to EU funds and overcapacity in certain parts... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2025) The meagre rise in real GDP in August suggests growth is still being hampered by high interest rates, higher taxes and soft overseas activity. With business sentiment on the floor and employment still... 16th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The advanced economy impact of China’s deflation Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in advanced economies over the past few years, reducing the level of headline CPI by around 0.3-0.5% on average. Tariffs are likely to reverse... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
