UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Evidence pointing to a weak Q2 UK GDP growth will almost certainly slow in Q2 after Q1’s bumper rise, irrespective of the outcome of the US tariff legal saga. Falls in business investment and exports will probably offset rises in... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Poland’s election could unlock (or block) reform drive A victory for the candidate of the ruling coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski, in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday would remove a key roadblock to the government’s efforts to improve the independence... 30th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU-US deal prospects, German government priorities The latest legal twists in the US tariff saga have raised the risk of further increases in sectoral tariffs, which could be particularly damaging for Germany and Ireland. Nevertheless, our base case... 30th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: RIP IRA?; US solar stocks sink; EU-UK ETS linkage President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” that would significantly restrict access to tax credits provided under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is one step closer to becoming reality, which adds to... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US equity exceptionalism back for good? We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500. But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Europe in a changing world Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, like all things in Europe, the subsequent changes are likely to be slow and deliberate. Europe will “derisk” from China in... 30th May 2025 · 23 mins read
UK Economics Update Spending pressures to lead to higher UK taxes and borrowing U-turns on benefit and welfare spending, increased pressure to ramp up defence spending and higher borrowing costs have left the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, in a sticky position. If she wishes to avoid... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU carbon market surplus keeps prices in check The surplus in the EU carbon market dampened incentives to decarbonise in 2024, and the likelihood that the surplus is maintained until 2027 will keep a lid on carbon prices in the near term. Further... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: At least one more ECB rate cut to come A 25bp interest rate cut next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.0%, looks very likely. But divisions are growing on the ECB about the impact of US trade policy on inflation and therefore the... 29th May 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Softening in UK housing market will only be temporary Leading indicators suggest most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty rather than any longer-lasting influence of the softer... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe-US trade talks after the US court ruling Yesterday’s US court ruling has added yet more uncertainty to the EU-US trade relationship and at face value has weakened President Trump’s position. But the risk of tariffs remains very real not... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2025) We suspect most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the rise in stamp duty on 1st April rather than any longer-lasting influence from the softer... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus ECB strategy review not just a formality The ECB’s forthcoming assessment of its 2021 strategy review won’t lead to immediate policy changes but we think it will commit policymakers to acting differently in future. They are likely to be more... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
