Capital Daily Burnham’s Gilt market luck may already have run out While recent economic data in the UK have painted a fairly favourable picture for the new Prime Minister, the resurgence of energy prices and upwards pressure on long-term government bond yields... 22nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Higher risk-free interest rates and uncertainty from the war in Iran have led banks to tighten the availability of lending to commercial real estate. But property equities pricing has recovered from... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: strong growth reduces rate cut prospects The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy continued to grow rapidly in Q2, supporting our view that the economy will grow by more than 3% over 2026-27. The sharp drop in headline... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2026) The easing in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June is unlikely to last long. The lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift inflation above 3.0% in September... 22nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s large budget deficit is a growing risk The Polish government’s budget deficit, of ~7% of GDP, isn’t going to trigger near-term sovereign debt problems. But there’s little chance of the deficit narrowing significantly in the coming years... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Housing wealth underpins demand for active adult communities Demographics are less favourable for active adult communities than care homes. However, high net housing wealth among older households will support demand, especially in markets with more older people... 21st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut its policy rate by another 25bp today, to 5.75%, and we think a backdrop of below-target inflation will allow the MNB to continue easing over the coming months. Our... 21st July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Lower mortgage rates and tight supply to boost prices We suspect house prices will rise only gradually over the rest of 2026 and end up around 1.5% higher in Q4 2026 than a year earlier. But our view that Bank Rate, and therefore mortgage rates, will... 21st July 2026 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone banks might be overdoing the pessimism The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) was quite downbeat, but we suspect that both bank lending and GDP growth will continue to be stronger than this survey implies. This would be consistent with the... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Labour Market (May/Jun. 2026) June’s public finances were a rare piece of good news for the PM Burnham and Chancellor Healey, but with the UK’s debt burden still rising, there is limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update UK commercial property investment to catch-up with US as rates fall back A divergence in risk-free interest rates in the UK and US since the end of 2024 has led to a marked difference in the level of commercial property investment between the two countries, in part because... 20th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Re-escalating war & AI scepticism a tricky mix for equities The return to war in the Strait of Hormuz may start to weigh more heavily on financial markets before too long, especially if even strong tech earnings reports continue to be met with scepticism. And... 20th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Indirect effects of energy prices still absent The rise in energy prices this month means that, rather than falling in July as seemed likely a fortnight ago, euro-zone inflation now looks set to remain unchanged at 2.8%. But the absence so far of... 17th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy still growing despite Iran war Euro-zone GDP (excluding Ireland) rose by 0.3% in Q1 and the latest official activity data point to a similar performance in Q2. Meanwhile, suggestions that European policymakers should engineer a... 17th July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Burnham inherits economic resilience that won’t last The recent resilience of the UK economy is unlikely to last in the second half of the year when the full effects of higher energy prices are felt. Further ahead, Andy Burnham is unlikely to achieve a... 17th July 2026 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Global views are shifting in China’s favour Public opinion favours China over the US in most major economies, according to survey data published by the Pew Research Center this week. That includes several countries that we classify as... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
