Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth will fall further this year The sharp rise in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.0% in Q2 was entirely due to base effects. In the coming quarters the labour market should continue cooling, causing negotiated wage growth (and... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Property recovery faces numerous headwinds UK commercial property rental growth continues to surprise on the upside, but the capital value recovery is already running out of steam. Looking ahead, weak economic growth, a narrow spread between... 22nd August 2025 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Aug. 2025) The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold at 4.00% in November. 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2025) July’s undershoot in government borrowing continued the decent start to the fiscal year and leaves borrowing broadly in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s 2025/26 fiscal year forecast of... 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates: where the market could be surprised Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to fall to 2% by December July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Battery demand powers China’s green exports Despite signs of weakness in the broader trade data, China’s New Three export volumes reached a record high in July. This was mainly driven by a rise in exports of lithium-ion batteries. And while... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025) Tariff uncertainty weighed on investment and industrial property in particular in Q2. However, we don’t expect much recovery in H2 as long-term interest rates rise and economic growth softens. Indeed... 20th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2025) The Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged today, judging that the recent deterioration in the economy does not require a policy response. We think that the economy is likely to recover in the coming... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) While the rise in CPI inflation from 3.6% in June to 3.8% (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 3.7%) will fuel speculation that further interest rate cuts are off the agenda this year, the Bank... 20th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Bonds Focus The causes and consequences of waning demand for very long-dated bonds Very long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments... 19th August 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could UK property tax reforms boost the economy? The Chancellor is reportedly considering replacing stamp duty land tax and council tax with alternative property taxes in the Autumn Budget. Even if this was revenue-neutral, it could be more... 19th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Why is inflation higher in the UK than in the euro-zone? The recent strength of inflation in the UK relative to that in the euro-zone appears to be mainly due to rises in “regulated” (i.e. government-set) prices, tax rises, and rents. These upward pressures... 19th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK GDP revisions don’t alter scope for future growth or rate cuts The small upward revision to the level of real GDP doesn’t mean the economy will be any stronger in the future. And the downward revisions to some measures of inflation won’t influence the Bank of... 19th August 2025 · 2 mins read
