Global Economics Update Forward guidance is not dead: here’s what it tells us For all the talk of the “death of forward guidance”, central banks are still providing a clear steer of how policy will respond under given circumstances. If the energy shock fades as we assume, the... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Sep. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September (consensus 3.4%, CE forecast 3.6%) mostly reflected higher fuel prices. There were also tentative signs that higher energy prices are... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily French sovereign bonds not OAT of the woods While renewed hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower energy prices have brought some relief to government bond markets today, the widening of the spread between French sovereign bonds and those... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) decided to leave its policy rate unchanged at 5.50% today despite further downside inflation surprises. We see the MNB opting for a prolonged pause in rates as it seeks to... 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2026) The unexpected fall in the unemployment rate in August suggests the labour market may be starting to recover, but the big picture is that hiring remains weak. With businesses’ energy costs likely to... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are the contagion risks from France? France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why a UK commercial property value correction remains unlikely Despite the rise in long-term risk-free interest rates, UK commercial property capital values have remained broadly resilient. While leading indicators point to a modest decline of around 1% in 2026... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global headwinds threaten UK’s economic resilience While the economy has shown remarkable resilience to higher energy prices and borrowing costs so far this year, we still think the coming rise in inflation will lead to an easing in GDP growth from 1... 16th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity data soft in Q3, fiscal policy looser in 2027 The latest official activity data present a downside risk to our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But even if growth is slower than we had anticipated in the third quarter, we wouldn't revise... 16th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone energy shock still much smaller than 2022 September’s euro-zone inflation data highlight that the energy shock is still much smaller than that in 2022, and the indirect effects of higher energy costs have so far been negligible. We suspect... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions shift, Polish core inflation softens The US seems to be moving towards (additional) sanctions relief for Russia, but the macroeconomic consequences are likely to be limited without a rollback of European sanctions (which seems much less... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update French OATs will remain Euro-zone’s problem child We think the selloff in French OATs has further to run over the coming year and spreads could conceivably rise much further, perhaps to around 200bp, given that attempts to put France’s public... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Israel’s election: what it means for the macro outlook lsrael’s upcoming election is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s near-term growth outlook or fiscal trajectory, but it will have significant medium-term implications. An opposition-led... 15th October 2026 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2026) After making a slow start to Q3, we expect euro-zone industrial production to have picked up in September. But the medium-term outlook remains poor due to pressure from China and rising wholesale... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2026) The 0.1% m/m rise in real GDP in August built on two consecutive 0.4% m/m gains in the previous two months and continued the remarkable resilience of the economy to higher energy prices and borrowing... 15th October 2026 · 3 mins read
