BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to talk tough, but unlikely to deliver We expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday 30th April. But with the data over the last month likely to have raised concerns about the risk of second-round inflation... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rethinking Hungary’s path to the euro The Tisza government has made euro accession a key part of its economic plans. Its goal of being ready to enter by 2030 looks optimistic given that Hungary is some way away from meeting the Maastricht... 23rd April 2026 · 9 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK outlook – Assessing macro scenarios through 2026 and beyond 7th May 2026, 3:00PM BST The UK entered 2026 already facing a challenging economic backdrop.
ECB Watch ECB will not rush into rate hikes The ECB is not going to raise its interest rates next week and policymakers are likely to say they will need to see more evidence of second-round effects on inflation before doing do. We think the... 23rd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equity-dollar correlation will remain strong until the war is over The inverse relationship between risky assets and the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past couple of months. That is likely to continue as long as energy supply risks remain the key... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s cybersecurity sector and the AI challenge Rapid advances in AI capabilities will reshape Israel’s cybersecurity sector, with significant macro implications given that cyber software exports account for around 3% of GDP. AI will likely... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update CRE construction cost rises most impactful in retail and hotels Commercial real estate construction costs are already showing signs of rising due to the Iran war. While this will weigh on profitability of new projects, the impact will vary by sector, with retail... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2026) April’s flash PMIs suggest that so far the economy is holding up better against the headwinds from the Iran war than in our baseline scenario, but that inflation will rise further. This may well lead... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April) The sharp fall in the PMI activity indices in April suggests at face value that the Iran conflict may have more of chilling effect on activity than we have been assuming, while the increases in the... 23rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2026) March’s figures showed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing in 2025/26. But we do not expect this improvement to last long. We think the energy price shock will mean... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Apr. 26) The Iran conflict has increased uncertainty and pushed up long-term interest rates, both of which will weigh on investment activity over the next few months. But property yields saw no rise in March... 22nd April 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (April) After a big drop in March, euro-zone consumer confidence fell again in April and reached its lowest level since late 2022, at a time when household consumption was declining. For now we suspect that... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about private credit and macro risk We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to discuss private credit and the risks to the macroeconomy and financial markets. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 22nd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) Easing pressure on Turkey’s balance of payments since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced earlier this month gave the central bank (CBRT) space to leave policy settings unchanged today (with the one... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) The rise in CPI inflation from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March (consensus and CE forecast 3.3%) was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about whether the leap in energy... 22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Weaker near-term hotel outlook; Europe better placed ahead A soft consumer spending outlook and subdued business demand, reinforced by the effects of the Iran war, will weigh on global hotel demand in the coming years. Longer term, hotel performance will be... 21st April 2026 · 4 mins read
