Europe Economics Update How much will ETS2 add to euro-zone inflation? The introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading System 2 will add only a small amount to headline inflation in the euro-zone in 2027, perhaps just 0.1 percentage points. So ETS2 is unlikely to be... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the threat from QT passed? Quantitative tightening has not been the main driver of higher bond yields in recent years, but it has contributed. With the process now at or near an end in the US and Canada, the threat that further... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2025) September’s RICS survey provides further evidence that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November has put the housing market on ice, particularly in London. If taxes on property were to... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.50%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (including ourselves), although we think the scope for further... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Car finance refunds slim compensation with tax rises coming The possible £8.2bn of compensation for the mis-selling of car finance will be a nice windfall for some households. But it’s much smaller than the similar payments of £38.3bn in the 2010s and will... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite signs that the economy is struggling in response to recent fiscal tightening, we think interest rates will be... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, but we don’t think that it will do much to raise... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Update UK-US valuation gap reflects more than just AI hype We expect the UK stock market will continue to underperform its more tech-heavy US counterpart as enthusiasm for AI continues to grow. What’s more, if the bubble in AI were to burst, we think there is... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily NZD may have hit its low, but we see downside elsewhere The RBNZ today dealt the New Zealand dollar another blow, but we think it will recover before long and that the Australian dollar will stop falling. The same can’t be said, though, for the European... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (August) The slump in German industrial production in August was partly due to temporary car plant closures for the summer holidays, which should prove temporary. But that wasn’t the whole story and previous... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (September) CPIF inflation edged down in September and is likely to fall much more significantly next year – to around just 1%. Despite that, we think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate on hold for the next... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest bond market mess While long-term government bond yields have stabilised today, political developments in France and Japan over recent days highlight how fiscal uncertainty continues to put upward pressure on long-term... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro more likely to fall than rise from here The euro has had a stellar year so far, holding onto most of the gains that it made following Germany’s fiscal announcement in March and the US tariff shock in April. But we think it is more likely to... 7th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update New EPC analysis points to tough times ahead for offices in some UK cities Upcoming EPC requirements, coupled with reduced occupier demand due to remote work, mean investors are shunning secondary offices, triggering a sharp decline in capital values. Our new dashboard on... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2025) The fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in September was at odds with September’s 0.5% m/m rise on the alternative Nationwide measure. But it supports other leading indicators which suggest... 7th October 2025 · 3 mins read
