Europe Economics Update Spain’s immigration boom set to continue While other major European countries have taken some steps to limit immigration, Spain has liberalised its immigration rules further this year. So we think immigration to Spain will remain very high... 3rd November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Explaining our non-consensus views on central banks We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to review the latest Fed and ECB decisions and preview the Bank of England’s November meeting. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The weak manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in October, at face value, signal further difficulties for the region’s industrial sectors. But the PMIs haven’t been the most reliable guide to the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) The fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 32.9% y/y, will provide some comfort to policymakers after the road bump in the disinflation process in September and keeps the door open for monetary... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) The slight fall in Swiss headline inflation in October will come as a big surprise to the SNB, which expected inflation to increase markedly in the fourth quarter. However, we think that inflation is... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily AI rally keeps on trucking in spite of the Fed A more hawkish tone from the Fed and a mixed reaction to recent big tech earnings reports presents another potential speedbump for risky assets. Ultimately, we think continued robust US growth... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech strength, Russia banking risks, NBP meeting Data released this week suggest that the Czech economic recovery is continuing to gather momentum. The risks to our GDP growth forecasts there have shifted to the upside and the central bank's easing... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor's second Budget to be about as big as her first Reports that the Chancellor will leave herself with more headroom and that the Office for Budget Responsibility will downgrade its productivity forecasts by more than we were anticipating suggest the... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France & Spain: same budget impasse, diverging debt Governments in France and Spain are both struggling to get 2026 budgets through parliament and significant fiscal consolidation is unlikely in either country. But while France’s debt ratio will trend... 31st October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2025) The small drop back in inflation in October was expected and was driven by a further fall in energy and food inflation. We think both headline and core inflation are likely to fall below 2% in the... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2025) The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in October suggests that homebuyers may not be as fazed by the threat of tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November, potentially on property, as it... 31st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hold steady Norway’s economic data have been a touch weaker than Norges Bank expected recently, but not by enough to prompt a rate cut next week. We’re forecasting the next cut in March 2026. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Carbon tax gets docked; renewable outlook dims The delay to implementing a global carbon tax on shipping emissions – that was described by President Trump as a “scam tax” – is another example of policymakers backsliding on climate ambitions and it... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB giving nothing away The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming meetings too... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s credit engine still misfiring The 30%-pts of GDP decline in Poland’s private sector debt-to-GDP ratio since its recent peak is on a scale typically associated with the aftermath of banking crises. The reasons are more benign in... 30th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was exactly as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
