Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: CEE gets off (relatively) lightly, tougher talk on Russia The EU-US tariff deal this week confirms that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be subject to the milder end of Trump’s tariff policy, and the reduced tariff rates for motor vehicles are a notable... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Households faring better than businesses The latest survey indicators suggest the near-term economic outlook is soft, particularly for businesses. But households may fare a bit better. Although UK equities have lost some ground today, if the... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariff news drives oil and metals prices in opposite directions Tariff news buffeted commodity prices this week, as the threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy raised the oil price risk premium but exemptions to copper tariffs brought prices off... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone looks resilient to tariffs, German budget The US-EU trade deal announced last Sunday and confirmed by the recent US Executive Order was in line with expectations for a 15% tariff on most goods exports to the US. We think it will cost the euro... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariffs will slow Swiss growth, but not halt it We think the surprisingly high tariff rate on Switzerland of 39% that the US announced yesterday is likely be negotiated down in future and, importantly, pharmaceutical goods still appear to be exempt... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2025) Headline inflation remained at the target in July and core inflation was only a touch higher. Both were broadly in line with the ECB’s forecasts. So there was little in the data to suggest that the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (July) 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jul. 2025) The bigger-than-expected rebound in the Nationwide measure of house prices in July shows that the recovery in the housing market after the stamp duty-induced lull is underway. While the weak labour... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Q2 RICS survey shows muted euro-zone CRE recovery The latest RICS survey indicated that the recovery in occupier and investor demand in the euro-zone was muted in Q2. While the reduction in tariff uncertainty should support demand further ahead, the... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: UK insufficient climate spending; renewables in Saudi The UK government is set to guarantee higher prices for renewable developers to secure new generating capacity and provide electric vehicle subsidies to support the rollout. More broadly, though... 31st July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
BoE Watch BOE Watch: Unlike the ECB, the BoE still has much further to go The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the fifth time in this cycle, from 4.25% to 4.00% on Thursday 7th August. Our sense is that the upside risks to... 31st July 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey shows a stagnant UK commercial real estate market The RICS survey showed that occupier demand was still weak in Q2, with firms reluctant to expand in the face of higher costs and an uncertain economic outlook. In line with that, rental and capital... 31st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2025) Our indicators show that capital inflows into EMs slowed in July. Most EMs would be well-placed to cope with a bout of outflows if risk sentiment were to worsen, but there are a handful of vulnerable... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily You need to grow to be exceptional in the stock market Faster growth in earnings per share (EPS) is the main reason why equities in the US have fared better in local-currency (LC) terms than those in the euro-zone since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
