Europe Economics Update US tariffs just one of German carmakers’ problems German carmakers’ recent disappointing earnings reports are as much about their continued struggles in China as US tariffs. And though sales in Europe have been more encouraging recently, that is... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank easing cycle will be slow and short Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end. 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 25) Property valuations were unchanged in Q2, with both property and alternative asset yields steady over the quarter. 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rates cut to 4.00%, but BoE appears in no rush to cut again soon Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Aug. 2025) Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish residential property to outperform Europe again Swedish residential total returns have underperformed the European average over the past three years, but a bright rental outlook in particular means we think returns will slightly outperform Europe... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) The sharp drop in German industrial production in June and the big downward revision to the figures for May mean that, rather than holding up well in the face of tariffs as the data previously... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jul. 2025) The rise in Halifax house prices in July provides another indication that the housing market is recovering following the end of the stamp duty holiday on 31st March. But the subdued economic backdrop... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (July) The increase in Sweden’s CPIF inflation rate to its highest level since the start of 2024 is likely to encourage the Riksbank’s officials to keep the policy rate on hold at their meeting later this... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on US tariffs on Switzerland With Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter in the US trying to head off the 39% tariff, this note answers some key questions on the topic. Overall, we think Switzerland has limited room to offer... 6th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2025) Euro-zone retail sales edged up in June but remained slightly below the peak reached early in the pandemic and well below the pre-pandemic trend. Looking forward, we expect spending growth to remain... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Despite the unexpected rise in CPI inflation in June, we still think the weakness in the labour market means it’s only a matter of time before wage growth and inflation slow to rates consistent with... 6th August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jul. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped back in July to 44.3, the lowest since May 2020 when COVID lockdowns impacted activity. 6th August 2025 · 1 min read
