Commodities Update Seasonal dynamics to support natural gas prices in H2 The fact that Asian buyers of LNG from the Middle East have so far curtailed demand has helped to limit the upward pressure on natural gas prices. But even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, a... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs have hit euro-zone exports The front-running of US tariffs gave a small boost to euro-zone exports and GDP last year. But now that the dust is settling, euro-zone exports to the US are significantly lower than they were before... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Care home demand to boom in Asia and North America The long-term demographic drivers of care home demand are well-rehearsed, but there is likely to be a degree of offset from factors that will keep more seniors living at home for longer. Nevertheless... 19th May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2026) The sharp weakening in the labour market in April may help to restrain the recent upward march in gilt yields by highlighting that, so far at least, the Iran war is prompting businesses to reduce... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey points to a softening market in Europe The Q1 RICS survey painted a downbeat picture of sentiment in European commercial property markets, with France and Germany generally weighing on the overall picture and Spain, Portugal and Poland... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q1 GDP drop keeps door for rate cut open Israel’s economy already appears to have picked up following the war-induced fall in GDP in Q1. But even so, the drop in output last quarter, taken together with the strength of the shekel and weak... 18th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2026) & CPI (Apr. 2026) The 0.2% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 underlines that the economy had entered the Iran war with very weak momentum and we’re expecting GDP to do little more than stagnate this year, despite... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Some bright spots amid the industrial gloom Euro-zone industrial output remained weak in March, with high energy prices and competition from China weighing on production. But there are some bright spots amid the gloom, including the... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political uncertainty may stifle economy for rest of the year The way things are going at the moment, it is possible that we won't know whether or not Starmer will be removed as Prime Minister and, if he is, who will replace him until mid-August. And if there is... 15th May 2026 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal path, CBRT inflation, shekel strength Announcements from Hungary’s new government, which took office last weekend, suggest that we’re unlikely to see the full details of its plans to reduce the budget deficit until Q3. Until then, the... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The case for further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has been one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year, hitting a 33-year high against the dollar. Further gains are possible provided geopolitical risks remain contained... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fuel price shock driving EM inflation higher Inflation data for April released across EMs suggest that the energy price shock has pushed fuel inflation up materially and that surveys of firms’ inflation expectations are rising sharply. So far... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q1 2026) Polish GDP growth in Q1, of 0.5% q/q, was a bit softer than expected, but it still looks like the economy weathered the first few months of the energy shock reasonably well. 14th May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar./Q1 2026) GDP rose by a bumper 0.6% q/q in Q1 (consensus and CE forecast 0.6%), but this will be the high point for the year given the effects of the war in Iran will sap growth from Q2. In our baseline... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr. 2026) The recent plunge in buyer sentiment triggered by the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran appeared to stabilise in April. Even so, April’s RICS survey continues to suggest that the... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
