Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (March) The big rise in German industrial output and orders in March confirms that conditions in the sector have stabilised in recent months. However, some of the strength might be due to tariff front running... 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr. 2025) The housing market should pull out of its current funk in the coming months even if the Bank of England were to suggest later today that interest rates won’t fall as fast as the financial markets... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased... 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update UK single-family homes an attractive option for investors Single-family homes have outperformed other residential sectors over the past four years as a race for space and stretched homebuyer affordability have supported demand, at the same time as developers... 7th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.50%, but we think that this may mark the end of its easing cycle. Our forecast for the policy rate to remain on hold at 3.50% over the... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone investment outlook downgraded given tariff uncertainty The gradual recovery in European investment continued in Q1 but going forward transaction totals are likely to be weak as a result of uncertainty around tariffs and the potential downside to property... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (March 2025) Euro-zone retail sales declined in March, reversing part of the increase in February. We expect spending growth to remain weak for the rest of the year as any support from lower interest rates is... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Apr. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI edged up to 46.6 in April, from 46.4 in March. That left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector. 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) Sweden’s CPIF inflation was unchanged in April which will give the Riksbank little cause for concern going into its policy decision tomorrow. We expect it to keep the policy rate at 2.25%. 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (1st Round) Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 th May. His... 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tariffs starting to weigh on EM manufacturing sentiment The manufacturing PMIs show that US trade policy weighed on sentiment across the emerging world, although the falls in the surveys arguably weren’t as bad as might have been feared. In India’s case... 2nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Housing market adds to the downside risks to activity We suspect that the recent slowdown in house prices this year is temporary. But while it is not our base case, a weaker housing market for longer would add to the downside risks to our already below... 2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Still little sign of tariff impact, Spanish blackout hit Data released this week suggest that US tariffs have not had a noticeable impact on euro-zone activity yet. But we still think they will cause GDP growth to grind to a halt in the next six months... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: UK rates to be cut slower but perhaps further than investors expect The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% on Thursday 8th May. But we think the markets have got ahead of themselves in expecting interest rates to be cut by... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
