Capital Daily Assessing the bond market implications of US-Iran re-escalation Market participants have taken the return to warfare between the US and Iran in their stride. Government bond markets are likely to remain most vulnerable to a renewed surge in energy prices, even if... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU-China talks will not stop tariffs rising Recent EU initiatives aimed at slowing the rise in imports from China are unlikely to result in a radical change in approach. We think the EU will step up its trade defence measures gradually while... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lisbon office rents to outperform consensus expectations Above-average employment growth and continued demand for high-quality space mean we expect prime office rents in Lisbon will grow at a faster pace than most expect, as well as most other euro-zone... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 2026) The modest rebound in buyer sentiment in June chimes with other evidence that suggests a turnaround in the housing market is underway and the downside risks to our forecast for house prices to rise by... 9th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Increased caution from lenders won’t trigger UK commercial capital value falls The sharp decline in the balance of lenders who see commercial property prices as a positive for the availability of credit could be a sign that higher interest rates caused by the Iran war will lead... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July) Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on... 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Lloyds House Prices (Jun. 2026) The modest rise in the Lloyds measure of house prices (rebranded from Halifax) in June suggests that the weak housing market may be starting to turn a corner. This will have further to go if the... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Will Germany's reform plans spark an economic recovery? 16th July 2026, 3:00PM BST A series of tax, pension and labour market reforms has raised hopes that Germany's new government is finally tackling the structural problems holding back the economy.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus AI and the UK Economy: Early signs, bigger gains ahead AI is starting to influence the economy, but so far this has been confined to a few sectors and been too small to show up in overall GDP, investment, employment or productivity. But if we’re right in... 6th July 2026 · 18 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (June 26) The construction sector appears to have stabilised in June as, after three straight months of falls, the headline CIPS construction PMI rose marginally, from 38.2 to 38.4. While that remains an... 6th July 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2026) May’s increase in euro-zone retail sales volumes shows that consumers kept on spending despite the drop in confidence and real incomes in Q2. It also reinforces our view that the impact of the jump in... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB interest rates & required reserves; EU-China trade The huge decline in energy prices over the past two months, together with June's HICP data, suggest that euro-zone inflation will be even lower in the near term than in the ECB's "milder scenario"... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Burnham on the defensive, it’s markets not rules that matter How to achieve the government’s commitment to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 will be a far bigger problem for prospective PM Burnham than the £4.7bn defence “black hole”. And a bit of... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
