Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2025) The large fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in June shows that the housing market is still struggling to recover from the combination of the stamp duty induced lull and the subdued... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs held up well in June despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Were higher US tariffs to come into force after President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve... 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain Flash HICP (June) National data published so far suggest that both euro-zone headline and core inflation were little changed and close to 2% in June. That will please ECB officials, who we expect to cut rates one more... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (May 25) Net lending to property had another strong month in May, with the total of £2.15bn the largest amount in five years. 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2025) Today’s money and lending data release supports wider evidence that activity was relatively soft in May. But with consumer confidence improving and real wages rising at a healthy clip, we still think... 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Jun.) The small rise in Polish inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in June is likely to be followed by a fall back within the central bank’s target range over the second half of this year. We think this will give the... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2025 Final) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.7% q/q in Q1, but we already know this strength has started to unwind. The underlying picture is still that there is very little momentum in the economy. 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania’s new government, Israel-Iran ceasefire The fiscal tightening measures announced by Romania’s new government, which took office this week, are a welcome development for investors, but we think the public debt ratio will stay on a sharp... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Revising down our Bank Rate forecast to 3.00% Helped in part by the decline in energy prices, this week we have become more confident that the recent loosening in the labour market will eventually reduce domestic price pressures. As a result, we... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why we still predict Paris office rents to grow by more than the consensus Despite a sluggish economic backdrop and rising vacancy rates in the wider Paris office market, we continue to believe that prime office rental growth will be stronger than the consensus expects. This... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Stronger euro, 50% tariff looming The sustained appreciation of the euro will reduce headline euro-zone inflation slightly in the coming months and, at the margin, strengthens the case for a final interest rate cut in this cycle... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
