Commodities Update El Niño to reduce upside risks for EU natural gas prices By helping to limit heating demand and natural gas consumption in late-autumn and early-winter, an El Niño-driven warm start to the winter in Europe could reduce the extent to which European gas-users... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2026) The latest rebound in mortgage rates and/or speculation of tax rises ahead of the Budget on 28th October dampened housing demand in September and this trend is likely to continue. With the risks to... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market turmoil just the latest blow for French stocks Turmoil in France’s bond market has added more pain to an already miserable year for equities there, and we doubt a big recovery is likely anytime soon. 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update AI’s economic boost may arrive sooner than expected Recent data raise the possibility that the AI-related boost to the economy’s sustainable growth rate that we have been forecasting for the 2030s happens sooner. Read the full publication to find out... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th October 2026 · 0 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Lloyds House Prices (Sep. 2026) The stagnation in the Lloyds measure of house prices in September underscores how higher mortgage rates and/or uncertainty over possible tax hikes in the Budget on 28 th October are continuing to take... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Small rise in yields to weigh on returns Higher gilt yields mean we now expect all-property equivalent yields to rise from 6.6% at end-2025 to 6.9% by end-2030, with half of that rise occurring in 2026. As a result, we now expect all... 6th October 2026 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: pressure to hike rates will continue to build The reintroduction of fuel price caps in Poland has eased immediate pressure on policymakers to hike interest rates, which had looked like a close call for the November rate setting meeting. Given the... 6th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (August 2026) The small rise in euro-zone retail sales in August suggests that consumption growth slowed in the third quarter compared to Q2. 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Sep. 26) The headline construction PMI rose to its highest level since January, but remained consistent with a contracting construction sector, with future prospects also looking weak. 6th October 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Spain's snap election The outcome of Spain’s snap election on 29th November is uncertain, but opinion polls suggest that the centre-right People’s Party and far-right Vox are well placed to form a coalition. That would... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The larger-than-expected drop in Turkish inflation last month, to 29.7% y/y, supports our view that the central bank (CBRT) will begin cutting the one-week repo rate at the MPC meeting later this... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Diesel price risk, triple lock trickery, and an EU reality check A ban on US exports of diesel could raise UK diesel prices from £2 a litre to £3 a litre and mean CPI inflation peaks at just above 5% instead of just above 4%. Meanwhile, the change to the triple... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s bond sell-off has further to run This week’s sharp sell-off in French government bonds suggests that investors have woken up to the severity of country’s public debt problem. Even if things calm down a bit in the coming weeks, which... 2nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal tightening, Romania under pressure The details of Russia’s 2027 budget point towards fiscal austerity, but it’s hard to view this as credible given spending pressures, particularly for the military. So there’s little reason to expect a... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
