Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) restarted its easing cycle at today’s meeting, reducing its policy rate by 25bp, to 3.75%, and we think another cut of the same size is likely in July too. 25th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (May 26) The risks to the commercial property market from the Iran war are increasing, and the longer risk-free interest rates remain elevated the more likely that will feed through to higher property yields... 22nd May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market too weak to generate big second-round effects We have been saying for some time that the current economic backdrop is much less conducive to a long-lasting bout of inflation than it was in 2022. This week’s news only adds to that feeling. As a... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic growth may stall in Q2 The downbeat set of business surveys for May which were published this week have prompted us to shave our forecast for quarterly GDP growth to zero in Q2. Further ahead, an outright recession is... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets rattled in Turkey, stagflation risks in Poland The ruling by a Turkish court which removed the opposition leader from his position has sparked capital outflows and will compound strains in the balance of payments resulting from the energy shock... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Apr. 2026) The drop in retail sales volumes and the public borrowing overshoot in April highlights the deteriorating growth outlook and fragile fiscal backdrop that will face whoever is in 10 Downing Street. 22nd May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (May 2026) The drop in consumer confidence since the Iran war began, together with the weakness in the business surveys, suggests that the euro-zone economy might contract in Q2. 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What would a new PM mean for the housing market? None of the three leading candidates to replace Starmer as Prime Minister advocate an increase in total housing supply, not least due to the fiscal constraints. But Rayner and Burnham may be more... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (May 2026) By suggesting that weaker activity may be starting to restrain price rises, May’s Flash PMIs are the third set of figures in three days that suggest the Bank of England does not need to rush to raise... 21st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus agrees prime office rents to be resilient amid Iran war Upgrades to expectations for euro-zone prime office rental growth this year and next have moved the consensus forecast closer to our own and are consistent with our view that prime office rents will... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Should we be braced for second-round effects? ECB policymakers have pointed to second-round effects in the labour market as a key indication that they would need to tighten monetary policy. As things stand, we suspect that wage inflation will... 20th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflationary effects of Iran war are set to broaden Higher energy costs have pushed up fuel prices in the euro-zone while the impact on other components of the consumer price basket has so far been very small. But the inflationary effects of the Iran... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The drop in CPI inflation from 3.3% in March to 2.8% in April (consensus and CE forecast 3.0%) feels like the lull before the storm and tells us very little about the persistence of the surge in... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
