Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE needs a reset for real recovery to take hold With interest rates staying high and closed-end funds already sitting on a large volume of investors’ capital, global real estate fundraising looks set to stay in the doldrums. We think the sector... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank in no rush to cut again We think the Riksbank is likely to be in wait-and-see mode when it meets next week and will keep its policy rate at 2%. While some of the economic data were underwhelming in the second quarter, they... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update London house prices to outperform the rest of UK Very tight supply, looser lending criteria and our forecast for further falls in mortgage rates provide scope for house prices in the capital to rise by more than elsewhere over the next few years. 13th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus “Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in... 12th August 2025 · 14 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian prime retail benefits from strong tourism Solid tourism flows and a pick-up in consumer spending growth mean we believe both Rome and Milan prime retail rents will continue to outpace the euro-zone average over the next couple of years. 12th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Strong rent prospects support UK industrial valuations Decent rental growth expectations and a narrowing risk premium imply that industrial is only marginally overvalued, despite an historically narrow gap between industrial yields and alternative asset... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Unemployment Proxy signals a looser labour market Our new CE UK Unemployment Proxy extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of labour market slack and suggests that the labour market has loosened further than the Labour Force Survey... 12th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update On the severed bond between Swiss and German bonds We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades. 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2025) The further falls in payroll employment and job vacancies suggest that the labour market is still cooling, albeit only gradually. But with wage growth excluding bonuses stuck at 5.0%, on balance today... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: A higher bar for further UK interest rate cuts In some ways, the Bank of England’s hawkish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday makes sense. However, it’s striking just how little weight the Bank is placing on the downside risks to inflation. We... 8th August 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, as expected, and its communications suggest a restart of the easing cycle remains some way off. We expect rates to... 8th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: More US tariff threats; construction sector Provided it stands the test of time, the deal agreed between the US and EU means that the bloc should be exempt from the 100% tariff that President Trump has threatened on semiconductor imports, as... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect the BoE to cut further and gilt yields to fall The surprisingly hawkish tone struck by the Bank of England today has increased the chances it will slow down the pace of rate cuts from one per quarter. But our view remains that Bank Rate will be... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
