Bonds Update Could France’s fiscal troubles be good news for Gilts? We expect the spillovers to the Gilt market from a further worsening in France’s fiscal problems to be limited. If anything, the balance of risks points to further French fiscal stress putting... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (October) The small increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October supports our view that, after stalling in Q3, the economy will return to growth in Q4. That said, the discrepancy between... 26th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly French bond rout raises the stakes for the UK Budget Recent developments in the French bond market strengthen the case for a prudent UK Budget on Wednesday. But the government still has room to act. We expect some temporary cost-of-living support and... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s budget, spillover risks from France Hungary’s 2027 budget delivered a positive surprise for investors, although we harbour doubts about whether the government can meet the fiscal criteria for euro adoption by 2030. Elsewhere, the spike... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2026) The rise in the composite activity PMI in October to its highest level since the Iran war started suggests that activity, outside of the retail sector at least, is still pretty good. This will further... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2026) Although the euro-zone’s composite PMI fell in October, it remains consistent with modest positive growth, suggesting that the economy has remained resilient in the face of the energy shock. And while... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence (Sep./Oct. 2026) October’s sharp fall in consumer confidence and the dip in retail sales volumes in September show that times are getting tougher for households just as the all-important festive period for retailers... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well and we expect regional growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (October 2026) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) started its rate cutting cycle with a 100bp reduction in the one-week repo rate to 36.00% today and, with inflation pressures subsiding, we expect an additional 850bp... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czechia: inflation pressures to drive further rate hikes With inflation pressures building, labour cost growth remaining high and credit growth strong, the conditions appear to be in place for the Czech central bank (CNB) to continue its tightening cycle at... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tight supply to sustain industrial rents in main German hubs The unusually low share of take-up in the main German industrial hubs appears to reflect a shortage of available space rather than weak demand. While space under construction is rising, this is not... 22nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily France’s woes put Gilts in a better light Gilts have been out of the spotlight of late as investors’ focus has been on the US and France and it is likely to stay that way as the Chancellor delivers a low-key Budget next week. We expect Gilt... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) kept interest rates on hold at 3.25% as expected today and we think it will adopt a more cautious stance towards further easing going forward. This points to perhaps one more... 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Jackdaw will have little macroeconomic impact The UK government’s decision to allow production at the Jackdaw North Sea gas field is unlikely to have a material impact on the UK economy. It should provide a modest boost to domestic gas production... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will hike only once more The latest evidence suggests that the euro-zone economy remains fairly resilient in the face of the Iran war and that, despite elevated energy prices, underlying price and wage pressures have not... 21st October 2026 · 7 mins read
