UK Commercial Property Update Answering key client questions from our roundtables on how the pandemic continues to shape real estate Last week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about how the pandemic will shape real estate into the 2030s. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: European growth risks rise – How will the ECB respond? 1744900200 The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The Bank of Israel left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, and sounded a bit more hawkish than at its previous meeting despite highlighting possibly quite a large hit to economic activity... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, highlighted two-sided risks to inflation and economic activity from US... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (February 2025) Euro-zone retail sales rose in February for the first time since September last year, and we expect consumer spending to grow at a modest pace over the coming months. But higher US tariffs and the... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Mar. 2025) The 0.5% m/m fall in Halifax house prices in March provides further evidence that the boost from buyers rushing to complete home purchases before the rise in stamp duty on 1 st April had already run... 7th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (February) The fall in German industrial production in February left it very weak. With US demand generating around 7% of German manufacturing value added, the sector will be hit hard by US tariffs. And higher... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Tariffs will put a big dent in the CEE recovery If the US tariffs on imports from the EU announced this week are kept in place, our current assessment is that this will lower GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by 0.3-0.4%-pts on... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariff shock heightens risks The larger-than-expected tariff imposed by US President Trump on the EU means the hit to the euro-zone economy will be larger than we had anticipated. For now, a euro-zone recession is still not our... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs not a game changer for the UK It’s clear the markets have concluded that Trump’s tariffs have increased the downside risks to activity that the Bank of England is worried about. But the uncertain influence of tariffs on CPI... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Mar. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI saw a small rise in March to 46.4, from 44.6 in February. But that still left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector. 4th April 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP set to cut rates, but not very far There has been a marked dovish shift on the Polish National Bank’s (NBP’s) MPC and it now looks like interest rate cuts will come this year, rather than in 2026 as we'd previously thought. But we... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (March) Despite easing in March, CPIF inflation excluding energy remained elevated and is likely to remain high throughout this year. We are forecasting the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 2.25% over that... 4th April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of 20% US tariffs on the euro-zone If the 20% US tariff on the EU is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by more than the 0.1-0.2% of GDP we had previously assumed. The impact on inflation should be... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
