UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2026) June’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market remains weak, households may be funding some of the decent spending in June by lowering their saving rate, and... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (June 26) Net lending to commercial property totalled just £47mn in June, the lowest outturn since March 2024 and consistent with the slowdown in investment activity in Q2 on the back of uncertainty caused by... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s drone campaign adds to energy shock Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy sector are squeezing Russia economically and politically but also putting additional upwards pressure on global energy prices. Ukraine would be loath to end... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two mounting upsides to our inflation and interest rate forecasts The recent rebound in oil and gas prices and the prospect of looser fiscal policy under the new Burnham government suggests the risks to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.0%, CPI inflation to fall to... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Are indirect effects just around the corner? The indirect effects of higher energy prices on inflation have so far been absent, but they could start to emerge in the second half of the year if energy prices remain high or rise further. That... 24th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jul. 2026) July’s flash PMI figures show that the stagflationary pressures faced by the Bank of England continued to soften. But the recent rebound in energy prices suggests that all of these trends may not last... 24th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2026) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in July suggests that activity is rebounding and that inflationary pressures are easing. But given the re-escalation in the conflict in the Middle East and the... 24th July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2026) June’s strong rise in retail sales volumes suggests that consumers kept on spending despite the rise in energy prices since the war in Iran began. This supports our view that the economy performed... 24th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US-Iran re-escalation begins to squeeze markets again The continued rise in energy prices is starting to put pressure on financial markets more broadly, beyond just the bond market. While central banks continue to take a measured approach to the renewed... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE to hold rates as energy prices keep rate hikes in play The Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates at 3.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 30th July and the latest rebound in energy prices will ensure that it continues to stress that... 23rd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on pause but chance of another hike is rising The ECB left interest rates unchanged today and gave nothing away about its intentions for the next meeting in September. Based on our forecast for energy prices to fall significantly in the coming... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2026) The ECB’s decision to leave its policy rates unchanged was no surprise, and the press release gives no clear signal about the Bank’s next move. If energy prices drop back in the coming months as we... 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) The statement to today’s Turkish central bank (CBRT) decision, at which policy rates were kept unchanged, made clear that policymakers are concerned about the renewed rise in oil prices, which is... 23rd July 2026 · 1 min read
