Capital Daily The ECB falls for it again, but the euro is unlikely to benefit Faced with spiking energy prices and a slowing economy, policymakers have, in line with past ECB practice, put the emphasis on the inflation threat. If previous similar episodes are any guide, today’s... 11th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update High costs mean low development and falling UK land prices The Iran war looks set to boost commercial construction costs by at least 8%, on top of the 24% rise seen since 2021. With commercial capital value growth also coming under pressure as interest rates... 11th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB set to look through energy price shock Despite the ECB’s rate hike today, we think the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged at zero next week. Higher energy prices have already pushed up energy inflation but overall inflation remains... 11th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is not done yet After the ECB raised interest rates by 25bp today, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, Christine Lagarde gave nothing away about the Bank’s likely next move in the press conference. We might learn more... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its key policy rates unchanged today (rather than hike) confirms that it would take much more severe strains in the balance of payments than... 11th June 2026 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: BoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising rates A hold on Thursday 18th June looks nailed on and we expect interest rates to stay at 3.75% for the rest of the year. But rate hikes in July and/or September can’t be ruled out. Either way, the... 11th June 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2026) While May’s RICS housing market survey shows that the worst of the falls in buyer sentiment may be in the past, a number of leading indicators continue to suggest that the risks to our forecast for... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus European student housing outperformance has further to run The two-decade period of student accommodation outperformance in Europe is set to continue, supported by higher income returns, favourable structural demand drivers and still-tight supply. Within... 9th June 2026 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back under pressure, and relief may be uneven Inflation – and central banks’ response to it – may continue to be a thorn in the side of the bond market for a while. But, there’s still limited evidence in markets of runaway inflation expectations... 8th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crazy Irish GDP numbers; “ethical” US tariffs? We are not worried by the downward revision to first-quarter GDP data for the euro-zone because it was entirely due to a slump in Ireland, whose national accounts data are notoriously volatile... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE may not follow the ECB The latest evidence appears to support our view that the weakness of the labour market will prevent the second-round inflation effects that the Bank of England fears. If so, then the Bank of England... 5th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian geopolitics, crunch time in Turkey Armenia’s election on Sunday could mark a further step in the country’s shift away from Russia and towards the West, adding tensions at a time when Russia’s geopolitical leverage has weakened... 5th June 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (May 2026) The modest fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in May shows that the rise in mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to weigh on the housing market. 5th June 2026 · 3 mins read
