Europe Economics Update Which sectors are suffering most from the China shock? The euro-zone has been one of the biggest losers from China eating up a larger share of the global export market. It has lost market share across a wide range of industries including vehicles... 11th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political change won’t alter economic and fiscal constraints Once a fuller picture of the results emerges later today and tomorrow, yesterday’s local elections could be historic as it could bring an end to Starmer’s tenure as Prime Minister and highlight that... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Would ECB rate hikes be a mistake? With interest rate hikes by the ECB looking likely, we are often asked whether this would be a mistake, with unfavourable comparisons made to previous ECB monetary policy decisions. But there are... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets? With Starmer’s premiership looking on the precipice, we are resending this analysis we published on Friday 8th May that highlights the main policies of his potential replacements and what they might... 8th May 2026 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish rhetoric in Central Europe but no rush to tighten Communications from central banks in Czechia and Poland this week suggest that both are set to keep rates unchanged for a long time. That said, policymakers in Poland would probably be the first to... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (March 2026) The weakness of German industrial production in March may have little to do with the Iran war as electricity prices for industry did not rise and output in energy-intensive industry held up well. But... 8th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Apr. 2026) The small fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in April suggests the housing market has been less resilient to the jump in mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war than the alternative... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Greenback will regain its footing even if peace deal materialises At face value, the dollar’s weakness over recent days is unsurprising given growing hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and the consequent drop in energy prices. But we think that the renewed outperformance... 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Student housing investment set to diversify Investment in student accommodation appears to be turning a corner after several lean years. Demand fundamentals are expected to support a further recovery over the next decade, though geographic... 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Czech National Bank’s decision to leave the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.50% will be accompanied by upwards revisions to its inflation forecasts in the post-meeting communications. But as... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Apr. 26) The headline CIPS construction PMI fell by nearly 6%-pts in April to 39.7, its lowest reading since November. Meanwhile, the input prices index again climbed sharply, reaching 81.4, now more than 20%... 7th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: fiscal risks rising After three years of remarkable stability in Italy, a decline in Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s popularity and higher energy prices mean political and fiscal risks are rising again. 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Polish MPC’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold is likely to be marked by a pause for at least the rest of this year. Despite the rise in inflation and resilience of economic activity, the... 6th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock halts Turkey’s rebalancing High energy prices are leading to a surge in Turkey’s imports and have pushed up inflation sharply. While the central bank appears to have room to stand pat for now, a prolonged period of high energy... 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas prices and European competitiveness The increase in European gas prices caused by the Iran war has been much smaller than in 2022 but it will make European industry less competitive compared to the US. Within Europe, it will weigh on... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB’s balancing act Data released this week add to the evidence that the hit to the economy from higher energy prices could be a bit bigger than we have assumed in our baseline forecasts. But the upside risks to... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
