Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by large upwards revisions to inflation projections in the post-meeting statement due later today... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update New housing measures won’t fix Spain’s supply problems Spain’s new rent controls will do little to ease the country’s worsening housing shortage. While the government has pledged nearly €900mn in support for homebuilding and social housing, that will... 4th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2026) October’s euro-zone HICP data confirm that the indirect effects of higher energy costs on food and core inflation remain very small. While these effects will probably build in the coming months, we... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October 2026) The larger-than-expected rise in Swiss inflation in October was primarily due to a rise in energy inflation. Underlying price pressures remain weak so we are confident in our view that the SNB will... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail to outperform leisure as sales of goods hold up The outlook for retail property is firmer than headline consumption data suggest. Households are cutting back more on leisure services than on goods, so retail sales should keep outpacing overall... 2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ labour market is cooling The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The bond market’s troubles may be drawing to a close We continue to think that less-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy and the bursting AI bubble will give bonds a further boost over time. 2nd November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Indirect effects of energy prices still modest National inflation data published today suggest that the euro-zone inflation rate will have risen to 4.0% in October and there is growing evidence that higher energy prices are pushing up inflation... 30th October 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes and the two-speed economy The impending interest rate hikes from the Bank of England may exacerbate the two-speed economy by weighing on consumer spending by more than business investment. So over the next year or so, the... 30th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Political deadlock in Israel, CEE tightening in focus Israel’s election this week delivered no clear winner. While political uncertainty won’t have much bearing on the country’s security strategy or near-term economic outlook, it makes it less likely... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 2026) The continued growth of the euro-zone economy in Q3 shows that households and businesses have not pared back their spending due to the Iran war. We think the economy will continue to grow steadily in... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q3) & Poland CPI (Oct.) The preliminary Q3 GDP figures out of Czechia and Hungary were on the disappointing side, although we expect growth in both economies to accelerate in the coming quarters. The Czech figure still... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2026) The stagnation in the Nationwide measure of house prices in October (Capital Economics forecast +0.1%, consensus -0.1%) is probably a brief hiatus in the recent decline in prices rather than a sign of... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2026) Our proprietary financial risk indicators show that most countries remain well placed to withstand recent shocks, including rising energy prices and higher global bond yields. Our aggregate EM... 29th October 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Despite a modest boost to housing demand from the Your First Home scheme, high mortgage rates will limit house price gains to just 1.5% in the year to Q4 2027. By making it difficult for renters to... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to hike just once more While the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged was expected, the policy statement and President Lagarde’s remarks suggest to us that the Bank is becoming more confident that underlying inflation is... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
