UK Economics Weekly Door nudges open for BoE, but window shut for Chancellor The past two weeks have boosted our confidence in our long-held forecasts that inflation and interest rates will fall further than most expect next year. And while September’s surprisingly soft... 24th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Market scepticism over fresh sanctions on Russian oil While the threat of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers drove crude prices up by ~8% this week, market participants appear to be treating the risk with a degree of scepticism. That leaves the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tensions simmering between the EU and China Tensions between the EU and China over rare earths and semiconductors, which continued to simmer this week, could weigh on euro-zone industry, particularly the defence and auto sectors. Next week, the... 24th October 2025 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 50bp cut in its policy rate, to 16.50%, was pinned largely on the inflationary impact of the upcoming... 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the economy continued to muddle through at the start of Q4 and the upside risks to inflation faded a bit further. This probably won’t prompt the Bank of England to... 24th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy may have picked up a bit at the start of the fourth quarter, although we suspect that growth will probably remain low at around 0.2% q/q. 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2025) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in September was much better than expected (consensus forecast -0.2% m/m, CE -1.2% m/m) and meant sales rose for the fourth month in a row and by 0.9% q/q in... 24th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have held up well over the past month, largely a result of strong flows into equity markets (Korea in particular). While we expect EM currencies to depreciate over the next... 23rd October 2025 · 0 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Still in a good place The ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% next week and we expect Christine Lagarde to repeat that monetary policy is in a “good place”. She might also suggest that the next move in... 23rd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to further slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 39.50%, seems to reflect policymakers’ growing... 23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on the Ukraine ‘reparations loan’ The EU appears close to agreeing on a loan for Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, that would be repaid by eventual reparations. This Focus explores the macroeconomic implications. The short... 23rd October 2025 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe generally remained... 23rd October 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025) We doubt that the lower peak in CPI inflation than most feared will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 4.00% at its next policy meeting on 6th November. At 3.8% in September, CPI... 22nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Food inflation is close to its peak We think food inflation is close to its peak and that it will fall next year. Not only will this help to bring down CPI inflation, it will also assist in easing inflation expectations. This may... 21st October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 25) Rental growth has continued to surprise on the upside, but signs of a more significant compression of yields in August have not carried through to September. Capital value growth is therefore muted... 21st October 2025 · 1 min read
