Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Danube disruption, temporary damage Hungary and Romania face a near-term electricity supply squeeze due to record-low water levels in the Danube. Our base case is this will be a modest and temporary drag on Q3 GDP that is recouped in Q4... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Lloyds House Prices (Jul. 2026) The stagnation in the Lloyds measure of house prices (recently rebranded from Halifax) in July chimes with the message from the alternative Nationwide house price index that high mortgage rates... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August) Euro-zone GDP expanded steadily in Q2 as higher energy prices had little impact on household consumption or business activity. The strength of July’s business and consumer surveys suggests that the... 6th August 2026 · 0 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 26) Property valuations improved in Q2 as the 10-year gilt yield edged down and property yields saw little movement. Given our expectation that the 10-year gilt yield will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2026... 6th August 2026 · 1 min read
Global Commercial Property Update AI will boost office demand in tech hubs as long as the bubble lasts We expect AI firms to drive office demand in key tech hubs as they expand and compete for top talent, although this exposure heightens the downside risk for the least diversified tech markets if we... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Where the upside risks lie for EU natural gas prices The slow summer rebuild of natural gas storage in the EU means that the price of the TTF benchmark will remain close to current levels over the winter, even if LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz... 6th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (August 2026) The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to keep its policy on hold at 3.75% is likely to mark a pause in the tightening cycle, not the end of it. 6th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) The fall in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June suggests there was a lot of disinflation in the system before the start of the Iran war. And the continued weakness in the... 6th August 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2026) Even though retail sales declined in June, they rose by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter, indicating that higher energy prices didn’t have much of an effect on household consumption. With consumer... 6th August 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (July 26) There was a sharp rebound in the construction PMI in July, with the headline measure bouncing back to 44.7, not far off its average level in the first three months of the year. However, although we... 6th August 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania's economy faces a long road to recovery Romania’s economy has been in recession since the second half of last year and is likely to stagnate over the rest of this year as past fiscal tightening and the squeeze on households’ real incomes... 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2026) Commercial property valuations improved in Q2 as alternative asset yields fell and property yields edged slightly higher. While rises in government bond yields so far in Q3 will be a drag, we expect... 5th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Who is most exposed to an AI earnings bust? An AI earnings bust need not be synonymous with a macroeconomic bust. Some scenarios – such as falling AI prices or higher input costs – would mainly redistribute income between AI producers and users... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia under pressure, financial risks across the region The challenges facing Russia’s economy increased further this week amid reports of more restrictive fuel export bans, spillovers from Ukraine’s drone attacks on logistics firm Wildberries and further... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Probability of BoE interest rate hikes may be starting to shrink Despite the Bank of England maintaining its hiking bias on Thursday, it feels as though the Bank is edging further away from interest rate hikes as it comes round to our view that the weak labour... 31st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Deciphering central banks’ muddled messages We recently hosted an online Drop-In to review the latest Fed, Bank of England and ECB decisions and what their communications imply. (Recording here.) This Update provides answers to the questions... 31st July 2026 · 7 mins read
