Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation at 7.7% y/y in March was in line with expectations and adds to evidence that inflation pressures have continued to cool in recent months. Central bank governor... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s public finances still a cause for concern After a period of relative calm, Italy’s fragile public finances are likely to come under the spotlight again before long. Budget deficits will be much higher than the latest government projections... 10th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in February was the second in as many months, and together with the Bank of England’s clearer hints that it is getting close to cutting interest rates... 9th April 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to continued weak activity The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that the drag on lending growth from tight monetary policy continued to ease. But the data remain consistent with broadly stagnant consumption and declines in... 9th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE should start publishing interest rate projections The Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications will probably recommend the Bank illustrates the risks around its forecasts using alternative scenarios rather than fan... 8th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will remain close to recession in the near term. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB is very... 8th April 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The second consecutive large monthly rise in German industrial production in February confirms the sector has started the year on a better note. But we still expect it to struggle over the rest of... 8th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q4) & Activity Data (Feb.) The 4.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q4 was slightly below expectations but it followed an upwards revision to growth in Q3 (to 5.7%) and suggests that the economy continued to run hot at the end of... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How much should we read into the collapse in starts? The further slump in housing starts in Q4 was a surprise, but timelier data and leading indicators suggest activity has since begun to recover. We are therefore happy with our forecast of a gradual... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Beware of the seasonal effects in inflation data Data released this week showed that the headline inflation rate in the euro-zone fell in March, to 2.4%, but that prices rose by 0.8% a monthly basis. However, the increase in prices was largely due... 5th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Upturn in money growth tallies with stronger activity Whether you’re a monetarist or not, it’s hard to ignore that the surge and plunge in the money supply preceded the surge and plunge in inflation. An imminent rebound in the money supply supports the... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Mar. 24) The first decline in the Halifax House price Index in six months confirmed that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB preparing the ground for rate cuts in June Next week, we expect the ECB to signal clearly that as long as economic developments are broadly in line with official forecasts, it will cut interest rates in June. There is a decent case for a 50bp... 4th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE industrial rents to trail the rest of Europe The CEE industrial market cooled in 2023 as economic activity stagnated. This year will herald an economic recovery but we don’t think it will be stop the rent growth slowdown. Demand is anticipated... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read