Europe Rapid Response Ireland GDP (Q1 2025) We think that the huge upward revision to Ireland’s Q1 GDP data this morning, to show a rapid expansion that was in large part driven by tariff front-running, will lead to euro-zone growth being... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (May 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the third consecutive month in May, although the rise from 46.6 to 47.9 still suggests that construction activity is contracting. Within the headline figure... 5th June 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policy turmoil starting to damage investment intentions Trade policy uncertainty has damaged investment intentions in the US, Canada, Mexico and South East Asia. But intentions elsewhere have held up better and investment growth itself has yet to falter... 4th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update It’s only a matter of time before UK wage growth slows According to the measures of wage growth that we consider the most useful and the fundamentals of the recent easing in the demand for labour relative to the supply, it is only a matter of time before... 4th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold today, at 5.25%, but this is only likely to mark a short pause in the easing cycle. We think that interest rates will be cut again at the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The strong start to the year shouldn’t be mistaken as a sign the UK economy will be able to shrug off the large rises in business taxes that took effect in April and the lingering uncertainty over US... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (June 2025) OPEC+’s announcement that it will continue to add oil to the market in July at a pace faster than they had planned a few months prior solidified a marked shift in the group’s output policy. This will... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin offices at a turning point, though tariff risks remain While tariff risks remain, the recent improvement in demand and weaker supply pipeline suggest the Dublin office market has reached a turning point. However, we don’t expect prime rental growth to... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Lower inflation in Europe, but not lower yields Below-target inflation in the euro-zone and deflation in Switzerland bring back memories of the 2010s, but the drivers of low inflation are fundamentally different this time and we don’t see much... 3rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (May 2025) May’s steep decline in services inflation, to its lowest level in more than three years, confirms that the previous month’s jump was just an Easter-related blip and that the downward trend in services... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in May, to 35.4%, will increase the CBRT’s confidence that it can restart its easing cycle soon. While we had thought the easing cycle would resume... 3rd June 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK civil service job cuts won't dent labour market much The suggestion that the Chancellor may be considering cutting 50,000 civil service job cuts wouldn’t weigh on employment growth much over the next few years. Only if the government were to cut public... 2nd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2025) April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs market prevented consumers’ willingness to borrow and spend from rising. This supports our... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Polish Presidential Election (2nd Round) The victory for Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the nationalist opposition party, in Poland’s presidential election will continue to stymie the government’s efforts to push through its reform agenda... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2025) May’s 0.5% m/m increase in Nationwide house prices adds to the evidence that the recent soft patch for the housing market was a temporary blip rather than a longer-lasting downturn as a result of the... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
