UK Economic Outlook Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts We doubt the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of some other central banks by raising interest rates. In fact, our economic forecasts are consistent with it cutting rates from 3.75% to 3.00... 23rd June 2026 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish MNB keeps the door wide open for further cuts The communications that followed the Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the base rate earlier today support our view that there’s a clear path for further easing in the coming months. We... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) 23rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2026) June’s flash PMI figures show that the combination of weak activity and lower oil prices are constraining price rises. This lends a bit more support to our view that the Bank of England does not need... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The flash Composite PMI for June suggests that the impact of the Iran war on activity may now be easing and, perhaps more importantly, that the worst of the Iran-related inflationary pressures may... 23rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (June 2026) Consumer confidence improved again in June but the mood among households is still very gloomy. Consumer spending growth is likely to be very weak in Q2 before staging a gradual recovery in Q3 as real... 22nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update No more ECB rate hikes? We have revised down our forecasts for oil and gas prices in light of developments in the Iran war and, as a result, are forecasting slightly lower inflation than we’d previously assumed. Our new base... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Prime Minister Resigns (22nd June 2026) A change in leadership following Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister may alter the size of the state. But it won’t change the fiscal realities. So while there may be talk of big spending increases... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strait jitters, bond divergence, and more UK politics Renewed US-Iran tensions have caused a bit of concern in markets at the start of the week, but as long as negotiations press ahead, global bonds could continue to diverge both from oil prices and from... 22nd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How worried is the Gilt market about the “King in the North”? Gilt yields have risen substantially today, but that doesn’t, primarily, appear to reflect Andy Burnham’s big win in the Makerfield by-election and presumed challenge for the Labour leadership. Indeed... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A new PM won’t change the fiscal realities Andy Burnham's decisive Makerfield by-election victory has taken him one step closer to 10 Downing Street, but a change in Prime Minister won't change the fiscal realities. While there may be talk of... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower energy prices ease pressure on the ECB The decline in energy prices this week suggests that energy inflation in the euro-zone has already peaked. And with little evidence of second-round effects on wages, the chance of the ECB raising... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (May 2026) Retail sales held up surprisingly well in May, but we doubt this resilience will last. Even if the US-Iran deal holds, inflation looks set to rise further (perhaps to about 4.0%) and retail sales will... 19th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Data centres to perform well, but risks are growing New MSCI coverage of data centres in the UK and US not surprisingly show the sector strongly outperformed over the past decade. But while returns are still strong in the US, in the UK the sector is... 18th June 2026 · 4 mins read
