The Hungarian central bank’s dovish communications following its decision to leave policy settings unchanged this week suggest the risks have become skewed to an interest rate cut arriving earlier than we currently expect, possibly in Q1 next year. Elsewhere, the continued decline in global oil prices is putting Russia’s economy under pressure, while the €90bn loan EU leaders have agreed to provide to Ukraine will strengthen its negotiating position in peace talks heading into 2026.
Note: This will be the last Emerging Europe Weekly for 2025. The next Weekly will be sent on Friday 9th January 2026.
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