Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any... 23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine? Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might... 23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications 1721916000 Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: a close look at external financing and debt relief The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine gets a boost, but funding fatigue still a risk The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a... 26th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe in 2024 and an... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish CEE central banks, EU expanding further east Communications from central bankers across Central and Eastern Europe this week struck a decisively hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates could be left on hold across most of the region in the... 10th November 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s grain exports will struggle to stay afloat The price of wheat and corn will stay historically high for now, as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has re-ignited concerns about supply from Ukraine. We think that prices will... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
