Reports this week suggest that Ukraine has started to plan for elections and a referendum on a peace agreement, but most opinion polls suggest Ukrainians won't be supportive of an agreement that cedes to Russia's demands on territory. Meanwhile, the policies published by Tisza, the main opposition party in Hungary, over the weekend look good for the economy in theory, although we think they will be difficult to implement in practice. Finally, GDP data showed that Romania fell into recession last year, and the risk to our already below-consensus growth forecast for 2026 now look skewed to the downside.
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