Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q2 GDP wrap-up, Turkish monetary easing incoming? The raft of Q2 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe highlighted that the region weathered the energy shock reasonably well but also that there’s a wide divergence in performances across the... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions and answers on the oil product shock Gasoline and diesel prices decoupled from crude in July amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Russia, limiting any relief from lower crude prices. This Update answers key questions on refined... 13th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Danube disruption, temporary damage Hungary and Romania face a near-term electricity supply squeeze due to record-low water levels in the Danube. Our base case is this will be a modest and temporary drag on Q3 GDP that is recouped in Q4... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia under pressure, financial risks across the region The challenges facing Russia’s economy increased further this week amid reports of more restrictive fuel export bans, spillovers from Ukraine’s drone attacks on logistics firm Wildberries and further... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s drone campaign adds to energy shock Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy sector are squeezing Russia economically and politically but also putting additional upwards pressure on global energy prices. Ukraine would be loath to end... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly US sanctions talk, Hungary’s constitution, oil prices Renewed momentum in the US to tighten sanctions on Russia, including through the imposition of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, could add further pressure on the economy and... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia can still finance the war – but at a growing cost Russia’s fiscal strains are rightly receiving more attention, but we think the more alarmist commentary out there misses the key story. The problem is not that Russia cannot finance the war, but that... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (June 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region has come through the energy shock relatively unscathed, and the... 24th June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
