Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (June 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region has come through the energy shock relatively unscathed, and the... 24th June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Door now wide open for rate cuts in Hungary Hungary’s central bank had already been inching towards reducing interest rates and the big downside surprise in the May inflation figures has prompted us to pencil in a larger 50bp cut (to 5.75%) at... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian geopolitics, crunch time in Turkey Armenia’s election on Sunday could mark a further step in the country’s shift away from Russia and towards the West, adding tensions at a time when Russia’s geopolitical leverage has weakened... 5th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish pivots, Turkey’s strains While most central banks are weighing whether to hike or hold, currency appreciation allowed the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates this week and the National Bank of Hungary to open the door to... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: energy windfall masks deeper economic issues Russia is one of the main beneficiaries of the energy shock and we expect a smaller budget deficit, a larger current account surplus and a stronger ruble than we forecast before the Iran war started... 28th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2026) & CPI (Apr. 2026) The 0.2% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 underlines that the economy had entered the Iran war with very weak momentum and we’re expecting GDP to do little more than stagnate this year, despite... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s cabinet, political turmoil, Q1 GDP Hungary’s incoming Tisza government has made positive steps with the announcement of key cabinet posts, including foreign and finance ministers. Political developments elsewhere in the region provide... 24th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thoughts on Hungary’s incoming geopolitical reset The incoming Tisza government is likely to realign Hungary’s foreign policy stance towards the EU, but economic pragmatism will mean that ties with Russia (energy) and China (FDI) adjust only... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New outlook, Turkey FX reserves, Russia’s fiscal boost The early signs suggest that the Iran conflict and surge in energy prices have had only a limited impact on activity across Emerging Europe so far. But balance of payments pressures are building in... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
