Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian drones in Poland, Romania’s fiscal tightening The incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace this week will, and at the very least, support Polish policymakers' efforts to continue raising defence spending. That said, the macro impact of... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Central Bank of Russia opted for a smaller-than-expected 100bp cut in its policy rate today, to 17.00%, and the communications highlight policymakers’ concerns about pro-inflationary risks. Even... 12th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin meets energy allies, Turkey’s court decision China and India both signalled this week that they are likely to continue buying Russian energy, but this won't save Russia from weak GDP growth over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the macro data out... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trump tariffs targeting Russian oil yet to shock the oil market The oil market shrugged off the introduction of US "secondary" tariffs on India this week and we expect this to continue to have little impact as long as India continues to purchase Russian oil and... 29th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe generally held up well in Q2 and, despite the... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Ukraine security guarantees, Israel & geopolitical risk The intensification of talks to end the war in Ukraine signals cautious progress, but Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their key demands. And Russia’s recalcitrance has become increasingly clear... 22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: EU gas to shake off the summer lull; Jackson Hole and gold Although news on the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has influenced EU natural gas prices this week, we still think there are more important factors that will eventually drive prices lower... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: All eyes on Alaska as Trump and Putin take centre stage The scheduled meeting between presidents Trump and Putin later today has focused attention on whether there will be any positive news to end the war in Ukraine, but developments over the course of... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2 2025) The slowdown in GDP growth in Russia to 1.1% y/y in Q2 suggests that the economy may have narrowly avoided a technical recession, but the economy is clearly struggling amidst imbalances that have... 13th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
