Emerging Markets Economics Update A challenging H2 ahead for EM manufacturing The EM manufacturing PMI recovered in June, led by China, which regained some momentum, and India, which continued to outperform. That said, the surveys remained at subdued levels in most EMs. And the... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Iran: conflict scenarios and spillovers The continued Israel-Iran military strikes are likely to have a limited direct impact on Israel’s economy – so long as the conflict remains confined to a matter of weeks. But the risk of escalation is... 20th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (June) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 100bp today, to 20.00%, came as a dovish surprise, and we now think the policy rate will now end this year at 17.00% (18.00%... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Poland’s election could unlock (or block) reform drive A victory for the candidate of the ruling coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski, in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday would remove a key roadblock to the government’s efforts to improve the independence... 30th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Grain prices won’t plummet if war in Ukraine ends Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2025) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Russian GDP growth from 4.5% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1 is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran... 13th May 2025 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia heading to recession? Romania election re-run The latest data out of Russia suggest that the economic slowdown we expected is happening more abruptly than we thought likely. A technical recession over the first half of this year is now a clear... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
