Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Apr.)

The continued growth of Russian industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the strength of activity seen in Q1 continued at the start of Q2. This momentum is likely to be sustained...

Emerging Europe Chart Book

Current account positions improve, but risks remain

There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia GDP (Q1 2023)

The smaller-than-expected 1.9% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has turned a corner and that growth accelerated in q/q terms at the start of this year. Industry and...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.)

Russian inflation continued to defy expectations in April as it slumped to a joint three-year low of 2.3% y/y, which will comfort the central bank. But it is a puzzle as to why inflation pressures...

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s election race, CNB hawks, Hungary’s reforms

Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory...

Emerging Markets Economics Update

How feasible is a BRICS currency?

The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Mar.)

Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Czech GDP (Q1 2023) & Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.)

The 0.1% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q1 means that the economy avoided remaining in a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, but we think that growth will still disappoint consensus...

Emerging Europe Economics Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.)

Emerging Europe Chart Book

Inflation past the peak, but big challenges lie ahead

Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects...

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution

Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the...

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure

The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.)

Russian inflation fell sharply in March, to 3.5% y/y, as the surge in prices immediately after the war started to fall out of the annual comparison. The 0.4% m/m increase suggests that price pressures...

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Military providing only a small boost to Russia’s economy

We’re not convinced by the arguments currently doing the rounds that military spending in Russia artificially boosted GDP in a significant way last year. While military spending has increased further...

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Weak CEE activity data, Romania’s FX reserves surge

The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most countries again in Q1. Downside risks to Q2 have also...