Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus... 26th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation and fiscal risks simmering We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters... 17th September 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting... 11th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of the region in August, although they generally remain at weak levels and suggest that industry has continued to struggle in Q3. 2nd September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for July were a mixed bag and suggest that the economy maintained a steady pace of growth at the start of this quarter. But we still... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any... 23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2) and Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, to 4.0% y/y, suggests that the economy has lost a bit of momentum. But overheating pressures remain alive and the increase in inflation to 9.1% y/y in July... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y. 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read