Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 16.00% but delivered a much more hawkish message at today’s meeting. Inflation concerns are likely to persist for some time and we think... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is... 6th June 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the... 31st May 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1) and Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is causing the... 17th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The weak set of manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe for April suggest that industrial sectors remained a drag on the regional recovery at the start of Q2. In Turkey and Russia, the... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The hawkish communications accompanying the decision by the Russian central bank (CBR) to leave its key policy rate on hold today suggests that monetary easing will probably arrive later than we... 26th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Russian metal ban won’t rock the boat We think that any impact from the suspension of trading of Russian metal on the LME and CME is likely to be muted, given that trade flows have already shifted markedly and it is unlikely to impact... 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
