Russia’s revised fiscal rule, Czech rates, new forecasts

Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov announced this week that the government will tighten its budget rule, setting the stage for what is likely to be broad fiscal tightening in the much-anticipated 2026 draft budget due to be announced later this month. Meanwhile, the Czech central bank will almost certainly leave its policy rate on hold at 3.50% next week. While most analysts still expect one further rate rate cut, there are growing reasons to think that the next move may be a hike.