Glapinski holding out … but rate hikes coming soon

Governor Glapinski’s post-meeting press conference this week shifted in a more hawkish direction and we now think that some modest tightening of monetary policy (50bp in total) will be delivered in Poland early next year. Market expectations for over 100bp of hikes still appear overdone. Elsewhere, the rise in Czech inflation last month has made a November rate hike the base case in our view, but we think continued soft inflation data in Hungary has opened the door for a possible rate cut before year-end.