Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel’s war economy at risk from further escalation Israel’s economy has historically been resilient to conflict, but a continued escalation in hostilities with Iran would raise significant downside risks to activity and the public finances. Heightened... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Bulgaria gets the green light, Poland election fallout The European Commission gave its approval for Bulgaria join the euro-zone next year and, while the macroeconomic implications of euro adoption will be small, geopolitically it will bind the country... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Poland’s election could unlock (or block) reform drive A victory for the candidate of the ruling coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski, in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday would remove a key roadblock to the government’s efforts to improve the independence... 30th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania and Poland at crossroads The polls ahead of presidential elections in Romania and Poland this Sunday point to diverging political paths for the two largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe over the coming years. A... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania on the rocks after election re-run The strong showing for far-right nationalist, George Simion, in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled Presidential election on Sunday has deepened the country’s political crisis, and the fallout in... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia heading to recession? Romania election re-run The latest data out of Russia suggest that the economic slowdown we expected is happening more abruptly than we thought likely. A technical recession over the first half of this year is now a clear... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia-Ukraine peace talks, CEE fiscal deficits The US has been pushing harder over the past week to achieve a peace deal that Russia is willing to accept. But the more concessions that are offered to Putin, the less willing Ukraine will be to... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT battling against capital outflows Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a hawkish surprise in raising its one-week repo rate to 46.00% today, which came against the backdrop of continued FX reserve losses and large capital outflows... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trade war rollercoaster generating mixed pressures The 90-day pause on US “reciprocal tariffs” has reduced the scale of near-term downside risks to economic growth across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has managed to avoid being hit... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Tariffs will put a big dent in the CEE recovery If the US tariffs on imports from the EU announced this week are kept in place, our current assessment is that this will lower GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by 0.3-0.4%-pts on... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Auto tariffs, Black Sea ceasefire, Israel budget Hungary and Slovakia will be affected more than most if the Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% auto import tariff isn’t reversed. Elsewhere, efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday has triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency – which has continued today – and serves as a stark... 21st March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Ukraine ceasefire talks, Romania’s political risks The US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine has been met with a mixed response in Russia, with President Putin saying that he “supports the idea” but that it needs “serious reworking”. Achieving... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: German stimulus spillovers, Ukraine aid pause The prospective fiscal stimulus announced in Germany this week could provide some support to nearby trade dependent economies in Central and Eastern Europe. But with a large part of the spending... 7th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Peace talks, gas flows & defence spending President Putin this week described Moscow’s initial contact with the Trump administration as “inspiring a certain degree of hope” and, as we explained in an in-depth piece, an end to the war with... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
