Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah

The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance

Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any...

23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Polish outperformance

The standout feature of the data released in the region this week was the strength of Polish GDP in Q2 – the economy is now comfortably outperforming its peers in the region. The most plausible...

16th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe & the mid-summer market turmoil

Global financial markets have unwound some of the big moves from late last week and early this week, and we doubt the latest market gyrations will change the economic or policymaking outlook much in...

9th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel

An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on...

2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth

Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance

Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are...

19th July 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary fiscal tightening, June inflation re-cap

Hungary’s fiscal tightening measures announced this week are a step in the right direction, but we are sceptical that the deficit will come down far enough to put the public debt ratio onto a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

The hawks come out in their droves

Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent

The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for...

28th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear

The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation

The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing

The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections

The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the...

31st May 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Is the Turkish lira turning a corner?

Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency...

24th May 2024 · 8 mins read