Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Thoughts on a jam-packed week for monetary policy A busy week for monetary policy highlighted the growing divergence among the region's central banks. On the more dovish side, Poland’s appears in no rush to shift to interest rate hikes, while we... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets turn increasingly hawkish in Poland The strength of the GDP and inflation figures out of Poland this week, alongside rising energy prices, have led investors to price in 75bp of interest rate hikes over the next year. While our base... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cut windows (re-)open in Turkey and Hungary Softer inflation suggests that there’s more scope for monetary easing this year in Hungary and Turkey than we had previously thought, and we have pencilled in more rate cuts into our profile. In... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s tax proposals, climate disruptions persist Poland's latest income and corporate tax proposals reduce the risk of a further widening of the budget deficit next year, but the government is still avoiding the tougher task of tackling a... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q2 GDP wrap-up, Turkish monetary easing incoming? The raft of Q2 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe highlighted that the region weathered the energy shock reasonably well but also that there’s a wide divergence in performances across the... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Danube disruption, temporary damage Hungary and Romania face a near-term electricity supply squeeze due to record-low water levels in the Danube. Our base case is this will be a modest and temporary drag on Q3 GDP that is recouped in Q4... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia under pressure, financial risks across the region The challenges facing Russia’s economy increased further this week amid reports of more restrictive fuel export bans, spillovers from Ukraine’s drone attacks on logistics firm Wildberries and further... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s drone campaign adds to energy shock Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy sector are squeezing Russia economically and politically but also putting additional upwards pressure on global energy prices. Ukraine would be loath to end... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly US sanctions talk, Hungary’s constitution, oil prices Renewed momentum in the US to tighten sanctions on Russia, including through the imposition of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, could add further pressure on the economy and... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Door now wide open for rate cuts in Hungary Hungary’s central bank had already been inching towards reducing interest rates and the big downside surprise in the May inflation figures has prompted us to pencil in a larger 50bp cut (to 5.75%) at... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian geopolitics, crunch time in Turkey Armenia’s election on Sunday could mark a further step in the country’s shift away from Russia and towards the West, adding tensions at a time when Russia’s geopolitical leverage has weakened... 5th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish pivots, Turkey’s strains While most central banks are weighing whether to hike or hold, currency appreciation allowed the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates this week and the National Bank of Hungary to open the door to... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
