Dovish pivots, Turkey’s strains

While most central banks are weighing whether to hike or hold, currency appreciation allowed the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates this week and the National Bank of Hungary to open the door to easing. We expect modest rate cuts in both countries in the coming months. Elsewhere, while Q1 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Turkey’s economy slowed, recent pressure on the lira suggests that the central bank will have to hike policy rates aggressively.