Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s hiking cycle, Poland’s consumer recovery Turkey's central bank delivered another large 500bp interest rate hike this week but it also signalled that its tightening cycle was very close to an end. While the local elections in March may be... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike in... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Sep.) Turkish retail sales and industrial production both fell again in m/m terms in September and GDP growth looks to have slowed sharply in the third quarter as a whole. The impact of policy tightening... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s central bank, Russian ruble, Israel’s offensive Turkey's central bank governor delivered another convincing message at this week's Inflation Report briefing and suggested that further policy tightening will be delivered over the coming months... 3rd November 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Turkish inflation unexpectedly fell to 61.4% y/y in October and while we think inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, the peak is probably not too far away. The central bank’s... 3rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial sectors in Turkey and Czechia suffered from weak... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks in EE facing their own set of challenges The string of central bank meetings across Emerging Europe this week highlighted the unique challenges that policymakers across the region are currently facing, but one common thread in all countries... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) Turkey’s central bank stuck to the course today as it delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 35%. A few more large hikes are likely to be delivered in the coming months too, which should help... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Activity Data (Aug.) The m/m falls in Turkish retail sales and industrial production in August provided the first clear signs that economic activity has started to soften following the policy U-turn earlier this year... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The small (by Turkey’s recent standards) rise in inflation to 61.5% last month, from 58.9% in August, provides the first signs that the inflation spike is close to levelling off. But the central bank... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of Emerging Europe last month, but remained consistent with weak industrial activity in Poland and Czechia. In Russia, the further rise in the prices... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recoveries across CEE, but Russia and Turkey to slow Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-Ukraine dispute, Romania's fiscal reforms Poland’s announcement this week that it would no longer supply weapons to Ukraine doesn't pose an immediate threat to Ukraine’s war effort, but cracks in support are clearly emerging across the region... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
