Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey back on track ... but risks loom large The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (June) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo... 3rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs held up well in June despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Were higher US tariffs to come into force after President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve... 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Iran: conflict scenarios and spillovers The continued Israel-Iran military strikes are likely to have a limited direct impact on Israel’s economy – so long as the conflict remains confined to a matter of weeks. But the risk of escalation is... 20th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (June 2025) The statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its key interest rates unchanged was hawkish, suggesting that policymakers want to push back against expectations for aggressive... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel’s war economy at risk from further escalation Israel’s economy has historically been resilient to conflict, but a continued escalation in hostilities with Iran would raise significant downside risks to activity and the public finances. Heightened... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in May, to 35.4%, will increase the CBRT’s confidence that it can restart its easing cycle soon. While we had thought the easing cycle would resume... 3rd June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
