Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel’s war economy at risk from further escalation Israel’s economy has historically been resilient to conflict, but a continued escalation in hostilities with Iran would raise significant downside risks to activity and the public finances. Heightened... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in May, to 35.4%, will increase the CBRT’s confidence that it can restart its easing cycle soon. While we had thought the easing cycle would resume... 3rd June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broad improvement in global risk appetite. But while our base case is that EM markets eke out further gains, the range of... 29th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs across Central and Eastern Europe held up relatively well in the face of higher US tariffs, but forward looking components of the surveys suggest conditions may deteriorate... 2nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2025) Despite the slump in the US dollar, outflows from EM capital markets have surged since President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements. There have been tentative signs of stabilisation more... 24th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are generally less exposed to higher US... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT battling against capital outflows Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a hawkish surprise in raising its one-week repo rate to 46.00% today, which came against the backdrop of continued FX reserve losses and large capital outflows... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to hike its one-week repo rate by 350bp, to 46.00%, formalises the emergency monetary tightening delivered last month and is a strong signal of... 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trade war rollercoaster generating mixed pressures The 90-day pause on US “reciprocal tariffs” has reduced the scale of near-term downside risks to economic growth across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia has managed to avoid being hit... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The softer-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for March, of 38.1% y/y, suggests that the sell-off in the lira last month hasn’t exerted significant upwards pressure on consumer prices (yet). And... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: keep an eye on FX reserves Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have... 2nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
