Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: CEE gets off (relatively) lightly, tougher talk on Russia The EU-US tariff deal this week confirms that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be subject to the milder end of Trump’s tariff policy, and the reduced tariff rates for motor vehicles are a notable... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (July) 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: UK insufficient climate spending; renewables in Saudi The UK government is set to guarantee higher prices for renewable developers to secure new generating capacity and provide electric vehicle subsidies to support the rollout. More broadly, though... 31st July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will Turkey & Argentina’s exchange rate policies backfire? The use of the exchange rate as a nominal anchor for prices – as is currently the case in Turkey and Argentina – has a broadly successful track record in bringing down inflation in the emerging world... 28th July 2025 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: EU-US trade deal nearing, lacklustre activity data The trade deal that the EU and US are reportedly close to reaching would reduce the downside risks to activity across Central and Eastern Europe, particularly given that the region's key auto sector... 25th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2025) The decision by Turkish central bank to cut its one-week repo rate by 300bp today, to 43.00%, was a slight dovish surprise, but the accompanying communications remained hawkish and we expect the pace... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey’s return to easing, Trump’s threat to Putin US President Trump’s threat of 'secondary' tariffs on Russia - which would apply to countries buying energy from Russia - if followed through on, could exert a major squeeze on Russia’s fiscal... 18th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: Turkey’s policy U-turn: back on track? 1753178400 Four months after the arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu reignited political risk in Turkey, market conditions have stabilised.
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey back on track ... but risks loom large The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (June) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo... 3rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs held up well in June despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Were higher US tariffs to come into force after President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve... 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
