Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) Easing pressure on Turkey’s balance of payments since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced earlier this month gave the central bank (CBRT) space to leave policy settings unchanged today (with the one... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary votes for change The macroeconomic impact of the landslide Tisza victory in Hungary is most likely to materialise over the medium term. More immediately, expectations for improved credibility policy and renewed access... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers look to cushion the energy price shock The policy support measures announced by governments in Central and Eastern Europe to cushion households from higher energy prices should help to limit the rise in inflation over the coming months... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New outlook, Turkey FX reserves, Russia’s fiscal boost The early signs suggest that the Iran conflict and surge in energy prices have had only a limited impact on activity across Emerging Europe so far. But balance of payments pressures are building in... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) opted to leave interest rates unchanged today, suggesting that – for now – it deems the effective 300bp of tightening delivered via the interest rate corridor sufficient... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock tests Turkey’s macro stability Turkey’s economy is better placed to face the current energy price shock than it was in 2022, but it is still among the more vulnerable EMs. A temporary price spike will only have a modest effect on... 11th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2025) Although Turkish GDP growth slowed sharply to 0.4% q/q in Q4, growth appears increasingly unbalanced, with consumer spending and imports strong, while exports fell. Taken together with the rise in oil... 2nd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Four years of war takes its toll Four years of war have made Russia’s economy look increasingly fragile. Capacity constraints are biting and vulnerabilities are growing in the banking sector. Still, the economic cost of the war... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM budget deficits on diverging paths Fiscal tightening has helped to narrow budget deficits markedly in a number of EMs, notably Argentina, South Africa and Turkey. But elsewhere adjustment has been limited – particularly in Brazil. And... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent downside inflation surprises across Central and Eastern Europe suggest there may be... 18th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
