The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had agreed to the placement of two bonds denominated in Chinese renminbi for the first time, although we think the strength of bilateral ties between the two countries risks being overstated. Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s draft budget for 2026 has faced public backlash. Fiscal policy looks too loose for the stage of the economic cycle. But this unrest shouldn't derail euro adoption in January.
Will the AI bubble continue to inflate? How will US-China tensions shape trade flows? Will a new Fed chair lead to much lower US rates? We’ll be highlighting what we expect to be the key drivers of macro and markets in the coming year in online Drop-In briefings on Wednesday, 10th December. Register here for our World in 2026 Drop-Ins.
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