Emerging Europe Economics
Our Emerging Europe coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and regional outlooks for the economies and financial markets across Emerging Europe. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future economic dynamics.
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This service offers in-depth economic analysis of the outlook for economic growth, inflation, trade, currencies and policy rate trends and independent market forecasts for 13 countries: Russia, Turkey, Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
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Our Economists Recommend
The latest key insights, in-depth analysis, and thematic research collections
Key Issues
Links to our key issues pages across the region
Key Regular Reports
The latest editions of our Weekly, Outlook & Chart Pack
In-depth Insights
Focus reports taking deep dives into topical issues
All Emerging Europe Economics Coverage
Russia
Our View: Russia's economy has slowed this year and we think that its struggles will be more severe than most anticipate over the coming quarters. Economic weakness hasn’t forced President Putin to make concessions in peace talks, though, and the probability of an end to the war in Ukraine over the next year looks low.
Turkey
Our View: Policymakers in Turkey remain committed to the macroeconomic reform programme, but the disinflation process is entering a slower phase. While this won’t prevent further interest rate cuts from the central bank, real rates are likely to remain high and we still expect further large lira depreciation in the coming years.
Israel
Our View: Israel's ceasefire with Iran has been followed by a rally in the shekel, and we think the currency will hold onto its gains. Against a backdrop of easing inflation, we think that a resumption of the central bank’s easing cycle is getting closer.
Poland
Our View: Poland’s economy will remain one of the fastest growing in the EU over the next year, but we are becoming more concerned that fiscal policy will be left too loose for too long. Meanwhile, interest rates are unlikely to be cut as far as most analysts currently expect.
Czechia
Our View: The Czech economy is likely to maintain a robust pace of growth over the coming quarters, and we think the central bank’s easing cycle is over. A victory for the opposition in upcoming elections could result in a looser fiscal stance and raise concerns about relations with the EU.
Hungary & Romania
Our View: Hungary's economy will be one of the weakest performers in CEE this year, but elections due in early 2026 present a major fork in the road ahead. An end to Viktor Orban’s premiership would boost the economy’s medium-term growth outlook.
Our View: Romania's recent fiscal tightening measures are a much-needed step in the right direction for the public finances, but they will create other challenges throughout the economy. Inflation will stay high over the next year, and we think growth will slow more sharply than most expect.
Featured Economists
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Liam Peach
Senior Emerging Markets Economist
Liam Peach is a Senior Emerging Markets Economist leading our coverage of Emerging Europe and contributing to our Emerging Markets Overview service. Liam joined Capital Economics in 2017 and has developed a strong track record at forecasting the economies of Russia and Central and Eastern Europe. He regularly presents to clients and his views are frequently sought after by global media organisations, including the Financial Times, Bloomberg and the BBC. Liam previously worked as an economist at the UK Office for National Statistics. He holds a BSc in Economic and Econometrics from the University of Bristol and an MSc in Economics from City, University of London.
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Nicholas Farr
Emerging Europe Economist
Nicholas has been with Capital Economics since September 2020 and sits on the Emerging Markets team. In his time at Capital Economics, Nick has researched and written extensively on financial market issues, ranging from the outlook for Chinese equities to how stocks and bonds have historically performed in times of war. Nick has been frequently cited by the world's leading media outlets, including The Times, the Australian Financial Review and Reuters. He is a graduate of the University of Bath.