Skip to main content
Turkey consumer

Tracking Turkey's policy shift

Capital Economics view: Turkey’s policy shift since the May 2023 election has been relatively encouraging so far and the commitment to macro orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the challenge to achieve macroeconomic stability is large, we now think there’s a stronger case to take a more positive view on the inflation outlook. If we are right that disinflation will soon set in, local currency bonds have the potential to deliver comparatively high returns among EMs over the next couple of years.

This webpage hosts our key research and analysis on Turkey's policy shift. It includes a data dashboard of the most important and timely indicators of Turkey's economy, our analysis of recent central bank meetings and key data releases, as well as a table of our key economic and financial market forecasts.

Turkey Election 2023

Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal?

Read the in-depth report

Key Turkey Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026 – 30

GDP

11.4

5.5

4.3

1.5

2.8

2.9

Unemployment Rate (%)

12.0

10.5

9.5

10.0

9.0

8.6

CPI Inflation (Avg.)

19.6

72.3

53.9

49.0

24.3

14.9

CPI Inflation (End-Period)

36.1

64.3

64.8

33.0

21.5

9.5

General Gov’t Bal1), 2)

-4.0

-1.7

-4.5

-4.5

-3.3

-

General Gov’t Debt1)

41.8

31.7

31.5

30.0

32.0

-

Current Account1)

-0.9

-5.4

-4.5

-1.8

-1.3

-

1-week Repo Rate (End-Period)

14.00

9.00

42.50

45.00

30.00

12.00

10-year Bond Yield (End-Period)

23.10

9.90

23.70

25.00

20.00

12.50

TRY/USD (End-Period)

13.3

18.7

29.5

35.0

40.0

65.0

Sources: CEIC, Refinitiv, Capital Economics. 1) % of GDP. 2) IMF definition of government budget balance