Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance

Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the economy rebalances with little economic pain looks optimistic, particularly in light of the recently-released GDP and inflation figures. Elsewhere, comments from the National Bank of Poland’s governor suggest that the easing cycle could resume sooner than we currently forecast. But we remain confident in our view that rates won’t be lowered as far as most expect.