Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too pessimistic about CEE retail rents? So far CEE markets have proved more resilient to the slowdown in European retail rents. While risks still skew to the upside, we expect that CEE retail rent growth rates will slow further, with... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB’s dovish shift, Russia & oil prices, Ukraine’s loan The Hungarian central bank’s dovish communications following its decision to leave policy settings unchanged this week suggest the risks have become skewed to an interest rate cut arriving earlier... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation process... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) EM capital outflows continued over the past month, driven by equities while bond inflows persisted. Even if outflows continue, strong external balance sheets mean that most EMs are well placed to... 18th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, as was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain on hold next year. We continue to think the CNB’s... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Muddling through The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will... 18th December 2025 · 45 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Softer growth, starker divides EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... 16th December 2025 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to leave its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, was widely expected and, despite a near-term dip in inflation, we expect rates to stay on hold until... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes? There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property recovery losing steam The recovery in European commercial property values is slowing and we think this will continue as soft economic growth weighs on rents and elevated interest rates limit yield-driven capital gains... 11th December 2025 · 23 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC signals limited stimulus but some rebalancing The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggests that monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive next year but that any additional easing will be modest. Instead, the focus... 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle today with a 150bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 38.00%, was accompanied by relatively hawkish communications... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: long end yields may rise, despite more rate cuts Poland’s monetary easing cycle has dragged down short-term government bond yields, but unlike in past cycles, long-term yields haven’t come down very far. Even with the policy rate now likely to fall... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
