Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and the softness in the latest inflation and wage data suggests to us that a bit more monetary easing will be delivered... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The larger than expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 31.1% y/y, provides a green light for the central bank to continue its easing cycle at its meeting next Thursday. We maintain our... 3rd December 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Focus EM equities rally to lose some steam outside of Asia We forecast emerging market equities to post solid returns in 2026, although not on the same scale as the exceptional gains seen this year. We expect the biggest returns in EM Asia as the AI boom... 1st December 2025 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in the manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in November offers some encouragement that demand conditions in the region’s industrial sectors may be past the worst. We expect a pickup... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2025) The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 1.1% q/q, still leaves the economy running relatively hot. But the positive contribution from net exports suggests that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance... 1st December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A path to peace? The revised peace plan worked on by the US and Ukraine in Geneva last Sunday has the potential to result in a more balanced framework to end the war in Ukraine than looked likely last week, but we... 28th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fall in EU natural gas prices has further to run The recent fall in the EU natural gas benchmark to below €30 per MWh has its roots in a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but we are sceptical that any agreement would have much direct... 28th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2025) Capital outflows from EMs have picked up over the past month, particularly from Asian equity markets which may reflect the broader drop in tech stocks globally. But the scale of outflows is limited... 27th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally rose in November and point to solid regional growth in Q4. That said, firms’ selling price expectations... 27th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Default risks easing, but simmering fiscal problems in some EMs The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits Russia and China declared a “no limits” partnership in 2022, but the economic limits to the relationship have become increasingly clear. Chinese FDI in Russia remains low, bilateral trade is... 25th November 2025 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the Bank of Israel to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, was accompanied by communications which suggest that further monetary easing will be approached cautiously and will... 24th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2025) Softening rental growth and steady yields weighed on capital value growth in many markets in Q3. And this is likely to continue, with our Capital Value Lead Indicator pointing to a further slowdown in... 24th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine peace plan, Hungary rates, Israel’s recovery Details of the latest US-Russian led peace plan to end the war in Ukraine suggest that Washington is willing to make significant concessions to Moscow in negotiations, but the proposal is likely to... 21st November 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly War and peace in energy markets While crude oil and natural gas prices have fallen as the US attempts to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, we think that the impact of a formal end to the war on prices would be... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
