Climate Economics Update COP31 struggles for relevance The forthcoming COP31 climate conference risks being overshadowed by the fallout from the US midterms. In any case, the more consequential developments for the green transition are continuing to take... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: Q3 growth stumble not huge cause for concern Despite the disappointing Q3 GDP figures, we still think that Hungary’s economic outlook has fundamentally improved since Tisza’s election victory in April. We expect growth to strengthen to 2.5% next... 5th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by large upwards revisions to inflation projections in the post-meeting statement due later today... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Political deadlock in Israel, CEE tightening in focus Israel’s election this week delivered no clear winner. While political uncertainty won’t have much bearing on the country’s security strategy or near-term economic outlook, it makes it less likely... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q3) & Poland CPI (Oct.) The preliminary Q3 GDP figures out of Czechia and Hungary were on the disappointing side, although we expect growth in both economies to accelerate in the coming quarters. The Czech figure still... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2026) Our proprietary financial risk indicators show that most countries remain well placed to withstand recent shocks, including rising energy prices and higher global bond yields. Our aggregate EM... 29th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s election points to political limbo The results so far from Israel’s election point to a range of possibilities for the next government although, irrespective of who is in power, it looks like the coalition will be fragile. We don’t... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s budget, spillover risks from France Hungary’s 2027 budget delivered a positive surprise for investors, although we harbour doubts about whether the government can meet the fiscal criteria for euro adoption by 2030. Elsewhere, the spike... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well and we expect regional growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (October 2026) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) started its rate cutting cycle with a 100bp reduction in the one-week repo rate to 36.00% today and, with inflation pressures subsiding, we expect an additional 850bp... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czechia: inflation pressures to drive further rate hikes With inflation pressures building, labour cost growth remaining high and credit growth strong, the conditions appear to be in place for the Czech central bank (CNB) to continue its tightening cycle at... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) kept interest rates on hold at 3.25% as expected today and we think it will adopt a more cautious stance towards further easing going forward. This points to perhaps one more... 21st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) decided to leave its policy rate unchanged at 5.50% today despite further downside inflation surprises. We see the MNB opting for a prolonged pause in rates as it seeks to... 20th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions shift, Polish core inflation softens The US seems to be moving towards (additional) sanctions relief for Russia, but the macroeconomic consequences are likely to be limited without a rollback of European sanctions (which seems much less... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Israel’s election: what it means for the macro outlook lsrael’s upcoming election is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s near-term growth outlook or fiscal trajectory, but it will have significant medium-term implications. An opposition-led... 15th October 2026 · 18 mins read
