Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Danube disruption, temporary damage Hungary and Romania face a near-term electricity supply squeeze due to record-low water levels in the Danube. Our base case is this will be a modest and temporary drag on Q3 GDP that is recouped in Q4... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (August 2026) The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to keep its policy on hold at 3.75% is likely to mark a pause in the tightening cycle, not the end of it. 6th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania's economy faces a long road to recovery Romania’s economy has been in recession since the second half of last year and is likely to stagnate over the rest of this year as past fiscal tightening and the squeeze on households’ real incomes... 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2026) Commercial property valuations improved in Q2 as alternative asset yields fell and property yields edged slightly higher. While rises in government bond yields so far in Q3 will be a drag, we expect... 5th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia under pressure, financial risks across the region The challenges facing Russia’s economy increased further this week amid reports of more restrictive fuel export bans, spillovers from Ukraine’s drone attacks on logistics firm Wildberries and further... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s energy crisis casts cloud over recovery Low water levels in the Danube are forcing Hungary to take its nuclear power plant offline, prompting officials to urge cuts in energy consumption. The scale of the macroeconomic effects will, of... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that the majority of EMs have been well placed to weather the effects of the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q2 2026) The relatively weak 0.4% q/q GDP growth recorded in both Hungary and Czechia in Q2 suggests that both economies weren’t as resilient to the effects of the energy shock as we had anticipated. This... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) Capital inflows into EMs financial markets – particularly equities – have risen over the past month despite the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. Outflows could return again if the situation... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s drone campaign adds to energy shock Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy sector are squeezing Russia economically and politically but also putting additional upwards pressure on global energy prices. Ukraine would be loath to end... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) The statement to today’s Turkish central bank (CBRT) decision, at which policy rates were kept unchanged, made clear that policymakers are concerned about the renewed rise in oil prices, which is... 23rd July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: strong growth reduces rate cut prospects The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy continued to grow rapidly in Q2, supporting our view that the economy will grow by more than 3% over 2026-27. The sharp drop in headline... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s large budget deficit is a growing risk The Polish government’s budget deficit, of ~7% of GDP, isn’t going to trigger near-term sovereign debt problems. But there’s little chance of the deficit narrowing significantly in the coming years... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut its policy rate by another 25bp today, to 5.75%, and we think a backdrop of below-target inflation will allow the MNB to continue easing over the coming months. Our... 21st July 2026 · 2 mins read
