Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 50.00% at today’s meeting, but the statement continued to strike a hawkish tone amid persistent inflation risks in the economy. While we think the... 25th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to opt for a smaller 50bp cut to its base rate today, to 7.75%, provides support to our view that its monetary easing... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany’s economic future – Is the ‘sick man’ healing? 1714485600 Germany is in crisis.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) Poland’s weaker-than-expected activity data for March suggest the risk to our forecast for GDP growth of 2.5% y/y in Q1 (up from 1.0% y/y in Q4) are tilted to the downside. While we maintain our above... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Iran strikes, Poland utility prices, IMF forecasts Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week, although there's at least hope that both sides are now trying to avoid any further escalation. For Israel’s economy, the pressing issue is the... 19th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Germany’s struggles mean for CEE? The continued weakness in the German economy that we expect over the rest of this decade presents a challenge to the export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While GDP growth... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Turkish assets may stay low The risk premia on Turkish assets are now low relative to the past decade or so. We think that will remain the case over the coming quarters, given the positive global risk-on attitude and the ongoing... 18th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Russian metal ban won’t rock the boat We think that any impact from the suspension of trading of Russian metal on the LME and CME is likely to be muted, given that trade flows have already shifted markedly and it is unlikely to impact... 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Iran’s strike: what next for Israel? The Iranian strike over the weekend has been largely shrugged off by Israel’s financial markets and on its own is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. The key uncertainty now is how Israel... 15th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fall in EM yields may be delayed but is still on the cards Inflationary pressures both domestically and in the US may keep government bond yields in emerging markets high for a while yet. But we think they will eventually fall later in the year. 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Higher oil prices bolster Russia’s war economy The latest rise in oil prices presents challenges to the near-term outlook for most countries in Emerging Europe by weakening their terms of trade and pushing up inflation – which already looked set... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to rebound before long While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2024) Capital flows into EMs have continued to rise in recent weeks, aided by robust global risk appetite. While yesterday’s strong US CPI release has clouded the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts and... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read