Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian geopolitics, crunch time in Turkey Armenia’s election on Sunday could mark a further step in the country’s shift away from Russia and towards the West, adding tensions at a time when Russia’s geopolitical leverage has weakened... 5th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2026) Prime office values continued to grow strongly in Q1, in contrast to a further slowdown in the retail and industrial sectors. These two sectors are also more vulnerable to the impacts of the Iran war... 3rd June 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: the next hurdles for unlocking EU funds The European Commission’s agreement in principle to unlock €16.4bn of frozen EU funds marks a major step forward for Hungary and would significantly improve the economic outlook. But disbursement is... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) Despite hawkish noises from the MPC, the recent softness in the inflation data mean that the central bank will likely hold off from hiking interest rates in the coming months. 2nd June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holding up, price pressures remain strong The EM manufacturing PMI for May suggests that industrial activity remains relatively robust amid the ongoing energy price shock, particularly in Asia where the impact has been offset by booming... 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2026) The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q1, to 2.5% y/y, shows that the economy was struggling going into the energy shock. At the margin, this outturn may make the central bank less likely to hike... 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish pivots, Turkey’s strains While most central banks are weighing whether to hike or hold, currency appreciation allowed the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates this week and the National Bank of Hungary to open the door to... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (May 2026) The fall in Polish inflation to 3.1% y/y in May – when most had expected a rise above 3.5% - suggests that underlying price pressures are softer than we had thought. In the last couple of weeks, it... 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE weathering the energy shock for now The latest surveys for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for May point to resilience in the face of the energy shock caused by the Iran war, with overall economic sentiment holding up well across... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: energy windfall masks deeper economic issues Russia is one of the main beneficiaries of the energy shock and we expect a smaller budget deficit, a larger current account surplus and a stronger ruble than we forecast before the Iran war started... 28th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2026) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 as the Iran war pushed alternative asset yields higher. Looking ahead, valuations could worsen further and property yields could come under upward... 28th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2026) Capital outflows from EMs have generally eased over the past month. Further progress in talks between the US and Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz would help outflows to decline further. But even... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) kept the base rate at 6.25% today, but weak price pressures and the rally in the forint suggest that the door has opened to easing, with a 25bp cut a possibility at the... 26th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) restarted its easing cycle at today’s meeting, reducing its policy rate by 25bp, to 3.75%, and we think another cut of the same size is likely in July too. 25th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets rattled in Turkey, stagflation risks in Poland The ruling by a Turkish court which removed the opposition leader from his position has sparked capital outflows and will compound strains in the balance of payments resulting from the energy shock... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
