Russia sanctions shift, Polish core inflation softens

The US seems to be moving towards (additional) sanctions relief for Russia, but the macroeconomic consequences are likely to be limited without a rollback of European sanctions (which seems much less likely). Elsewhere, although Polish core inflation fell last month, it probably rebounded this month. And while this won’t be enough to trigger a rate hike in November, monetary tightening is likely in Q1. Next week is a busy one for the for region’s central banks. Those in Russia and Hungary are likely to leave rates on hold, and Turkey’s will probably start its easing cycle.