Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal?

Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the challenge of achieving macroeconomic stability is large, we have become more positive on the outlook. This is reflected in our below-consensus inflation forecasts over the coming years, and our projection for the lira to depreciate (in nominal terms) by less than most currently forecast.